Search found 755 matches

by jhogue
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: FED Yield Curve Control
Replies: 7
Views: 4818

Re: FED Yield Curve Control

Paul talked with Ben all the time.

Ben was the chair of the economics department of Princeton University. Paul held an endowed chair in economics at the same time.
by jhogue
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: An outsiders perspective of the politcal turmoil
Replies: 49
Views: 16161

Re: An outsiders perspective of the politcal turmoil

@drudge.com:

Dr. Fauci touches his face, mask and glasses with his hands.
by jhogue
Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Open End Mutual Funds vs ETFs
Replies: 5
Views: 2024

Re: Open End Mutual Funds vs ETFs

It does not make much difference, but you should also note that an ETF's price will fluctuate during the market open hours. A mutual fund is re-priced after the market closes.
by jhogue
Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:36 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: EE Bonds vs Roth IRA
Replies: 1
Views: 1962

Re: EE Bonds vs Roth IRA

Without getting into specifics of your financial goals, why not hold some of each? The guaranteed return of EE bonds is 3.53%. Good protection against deflation over the next 20 years. The expected nominal return of an S&P500 index fund in a Roth IRA is about 8%. Good protection against inflatio...
by jhogue
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: DeBlasio caves to mob, starts defunding police
Replies: 67
Views: 15332

Re: DeBlasio caves to mob, starts defunding police

You are right, but only half right. The producing class will leave the cities, but the politicians in power would rather blame their failures on four hundred years of racial oppression than forty years of mismanagement and one party rule.
by jhogue
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is Trump doing a good job?
Replies: 840
Views: 257219

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

I like what Trump does better than I like what he says.

As for Biden, I can't stand what he says or what he does.
by jhogue
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: DeBlasio caves to mob, starts defunding police
Replies: 67
Views: 15332

Re: DeBlasio caves to mob, starts defunding police

I would not take this situation too lightly. The rise of Antifa in the face of the craven capitulation of Democratic mayors like Jacob Frey, Bill de Blasio and Jenny Durkin reminds me of the anarchist takeover of Barcelona in the Spanish Civil War of 1936-1939. It did not end well. In Seattle, the a...
by jhogue
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing Twice Monthly Into PP
Replies: 12
Views: 4506

Re: Investing Twice Monthly Into PP

The short answer of why you should care is this: behavioral economics.

Harry Browne himself understood that the assets he enthusiastically supported in the 1970s (gold, silver, Swiss francs) gave way to other assets (stocks and bonds) in the 1980s.
by jhogue
Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing Twice Monthly Into PP
Replies: 12
Views: 4506

Re: Investing Twice Monthly Into PP

Yikes! Do you suppose that ANY of them remember the subprime mortgage crash of 2008? I don't doubt that they are all well-educated, but forgive me for questioning if they are well-experienced.
by jhogue
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 2142168

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

There are many non-lethal tactics that can be employed: -Strict Curfew at dusk -More boots on the ground than looters -Tear gas and Water cannons -Mass arrests All of those, however, depend upon local leadership determined to keep the peace. Newsflash: Petitions are being circulated to recall the ma...
by jhogue
Sun May 31, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
Replies: 243
Views: 172672

Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Right now, cash is starting to remind of all the complaints about gold.
But-- just like gold-- when you really need it, you want access to it right now and you want it in the safest form you can get.
by jhogue
Tue May 26, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in IRA
Replies: 25
Views: 7839

Re: PP in IRA

Tyler, As I am retired, I have been tempted to "dial back" on cash. Especially in this kind of ultra-low rate environment cash seems like a drag on performance. Here's the problem as I see it: Cash is the biggest damper on volatility for the actions of the other three assets. It is what sm...
by jhogue
Fri May 22, 2020 5:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 2142168

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

+1 The same thing is happening in Minnesota, where more than 80% of patients who die reside in nursing homes. The state government is demanding that hospitals discharge COVD-19 positive patients to these nursing homes, even as hospital beds go empty and the world-famous Mayo Clinic is going broke. A...
by jhogue
Fri May 22, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in IRA
Replies: 25
Views: 7839

Re: PP in IRA

plus a long time myth was disproved and that is as little as a 2% dividend in a taxable account over the long term wipes out any tax savings from the special rates and then it acts as a drag on the investments return once the tax savings is wiped away .. this is a huge factor , as old school teachi...
by jhogue
Fri May 22, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Best LTT fund or ETF
Replies: 8
Views: 4868

Re: Best LTT fund or ETF

It's also quite safe to put bonds in taxable right now, in whatever your preferred form. If bonds go up (i.e. yields drop near zero) and you need to rebalance, you can still do so in tax-protected space if you have holdings there. If bonds go down (i.e. yields go up) you can tax loss harvest and sh...
by jhogue
Fri May 22, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Best LTT fund or ETF
Replies: 8
Views: 4868

Re: Best LTT fund or ETF

Most of my LTTs are in directly held 30 year T-bonds at Fidelity in an IRA. I do keep a small amount of TLT as well, for rebalancing. That said, I am glad to see that there are other ETF choices. Like gold, the increasing choices in LTTs is good for competition, and that is good for the HBPP investor.
by jhogue
Fri May 22, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in IRA
Replies: 25
Views: 7839

Re: PP in IRA

I personally favor having a separate PP in each tax category. In other words, one PP for taxable, another for traditional IRA, and another for Roth IRA. The IRA money won't/can't be touched for quite a long time. What are everyone's thoughts on dialing back the cash percentage in IRA PPs? I started...
by jhogue
Tue May 19, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Has Outperformed Stocks Over The Past 20 Years
Replies: 59
Views: 19920

Re: Gold Has Outperformed Stocks Over The Past 20 Years

mathjak uses charts when they suit his purpose.

His favorite is a chart showing the decline of 30 year T-bond interest rates that is supposed to prove that interest rates have nowhere to go but up.
by jhogue
Sat May 16, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trains?
Replies: 3
Views: 1971

Re: Trains?

I wish long distance passenger rail could make a comeback in the USA, but I just don't see it. Too expensive and too slow, and too often too late. The exception is the Northeast, where Amtrak owns the rails, but there it is too crowded for the age of virus fear. Instead, see the Wall Street Journal'...
by jhogue
Wed May 13, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Combining GB with spread trend
Replies: 121
Views: 43646

Re: Combining GB with spread trend

I hope you and your charts are right.

I stopped "sitting on my hands" a couple of days ago and bought some AAAU in taxable with cash I had been holding for some time as part of a portfolio rebalance.
by jhogue
Wed May 13, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Treasurey to sell $3 Trillion in Bonds by July
Replies: 17
Views: 7272

Re: Treasurey to sell $3 Trillion in Bonds by July

Nothing implicit about it. Ask any moderately wealthy Chinese you meet and they will tell you that their government practices punitive capital controls. Success for Chinese means an American passport (sometimes for themselves; sometimes for their children) and an American bank account. Or think of i...
by jhogue
Mon May 11, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Credit Union CD’s vs. BIL for cash
Replies: 6
Views: 4091

Re: Credit Union CD’s vs. BIL for cash

The yield of a 1 year T-bill has collapsed with the Fed’s massive monetary intervention and is currently hovering around 0.12% yield. Shorter maturities are flirting with negative yields. That explains why money market funds and short term ETFs are all stuck at the zero bound and likely will remain ...
by jhogue
Sun May 10, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 2302
Views: 1434100

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Happy asparagus season to all the Germans out there. :D Happy asparagus season! Fond memories of the annual "spargelkarte" at the rathskeller in Nuremberg in the 1980s. I had never had white asparagus with bernaise sauce before. The Bavarians washed it down with rauchbier ("smoked be...
by jhogue
Wed May 06, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Treasury Bond Basic Quetions - TreasuryDirect
Replies: 13
Views: 11751

Re: Treasury Bond Basic Quetions - TreasuryDirect

What is FNGBX? (Franklin Next Step Growth??)
by jhogue
Mon May 04, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The effects of COVID-19 on Dentistry
Replies: 9
Views: 3912

Re: The effects of COVID-19 on Dentistry

MangoMan,

Devastating. This is how small business get destroyed in contemporary America.