Search found 655 matches

by Dieter
Fri Jul 29, 2016 4:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Replies: 54
Views: 42291

Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis

Congrats. And thanks for sharing your numbers. I have a similar (overall) allocation across all my retirement accounts -- roughly 50% stocks, 30% "Bonds" (not just LTT), 15% Gold, 5% Cash. With (depending on account) some tilt to SCV, REIT, Intl (ok, technically tilting to US as not 50% Intl), ....
by Dieter
Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350789

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. Yes, and the PP is also not likely to repeat the same succe...
by Dieter
Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350789

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Tyler actually replaced Small Cap Value with Small Cap Blend in the version of the GB he said he himself has implemented. Aside from the lengthy thread on GB here there are two other equally epic ones on the Mr. Money Mustache and Early Retirement Extreme forums and I don't recall on which of them ...
by Dieter
Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IRA vs. Taxable for each PP asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 8727

Re: IRA vs. Taxable for each PP asset class

Other points: * Dividend yielding securities yield more than cash nowadays (check after tax returns) * Cash outside of most retirement accounts (often/generally) yields more than within (online savings, CDs, I-Bonds, ...) * I-Bonds interest tax free until sold; tax free if do qualified things with t...
by Dieter
Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350789

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I've been spending some more time looking at the GB and various iterations and am wondering why Desert's variation hasn't gotten more discussion. With the obvious caveat that backtesting only goes so far when I run the numbers comparing the GB with Desert's version the latter comes out well ahead o...
by Dieter
Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Replies: 54
Views: 42291

Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis

How much of PP2 out-performance is Size vs Value?

Would be interesting how the Golden Butterfly (20% SP 500 / 20% SCV) for the 40% stocks compares for these metrics.
by Dieter
Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:05 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: How about US mid-caps?
Replies: 17
Views: 19002

Re: How about US mid-caps?

I assume familiar with Mel Lindenauers 'Unloved Mid-Caps' on Bogleheads? The original (2000) : http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/t/27802.aspx?PageIndex=1 Discussions from 2014 (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=137723) and 2015 (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/view...
by Dieter
Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Replies: 54
Views: 42291

Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis

Just as a general rule, 40% in any one asset is too much. It really doesn't matter what that asset is. Swensen maintains that any one class should be between 5%-30%. Do you think the Golden Butterfly violates this rule by having 40% in stocks split 20% to large cap and 20% to small value? I believe...
by Dieter
Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Replies: 54
Views: 42291

Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis

>> 15% VFITX (T-bills) I think this should be: 15% VFITX (Intermediate-term treasuries) Definitely great stuff -- thanks for sharing your data. And as per my apparent new Mantra, accounting for emergency fund (cash).... Or does All-Weather folks say to not keep separate cash / emergency fund on hand...
by Dieter
Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
Replies: 36
Views: 19680

Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me

The PP is one of the few portfolios that can include your emergency cash as part of the portfolio. (not everyone does, of course.) If include, retirement accounts may be 30/30/30/10 with emergency funds outside the 401(k) or IRA rounding out the Cash allocation. Also, as Clacy says, the 5 20's, with...
by Dieter
Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 30524

Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP

MG, Just jumping in to say that if you are really saving 50% of your income, you may not need great investment returns. That is a great savings rate. A vehicle for growing them modestly in real terms should do the trick, especially because you don't seem like the kind of guy who needs a lot of luxu...
by Dieter
Sat Jul 16, 2016 5:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: MachineGhost's Research Resort
Replies: 212
Views: 94358

Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2770897 Go to Tables 3 and 4 to get the bottom line. And here is the verbal generic findings Our results suggest that the optimal risky portfolio is approximately 76% bonds, 8% gold, 7% emerging markets, 4% U.S. stock, 4% real estate, and 1% platin...
by Dieter
Sat Jul 16, 2016 1:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Savings Rates by Wealth Class
Replies: 13
Views: 7594

Re: Savings Rates by Wealth Class

Including company match but not Mortgage principle, around 10% of gross; ~14% if include Mortgage Principle.

[Edit: added 'of gross'; Edit2: added % inc. Mortgage Principle - helps me feel slightly better here on the bottom of the saving range... :).]
by Dieter
Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard Sucks
Replies: 19
Views: 9353

Re: Vanguard Sucks

MachineGhost wrote:Wasn't Vanguard supposed to merge the separate Mutual Fund and Brokerage accounts? I still have them both.
Mine have been merged. Months ago if I recall.
by Dieter
Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard Sucks
Replies: 19
Views: 9353

Re: Vanguard Sucks

MachineGhost wrote:I picked up Wellesley today (thanks, Reub!) at Vanguard primarily for sovereign risk diversification with the corporate bonds. I did not know that they focus on high yield and dividend growers for the stock portion, so that is very nice and useful!
Been happy with my Wellesley.
by Dieter
Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:30 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The Golden Dilemma
Replies: 20
Views: 9589

Re: The Golden Dilemma

Kriegsspiel wrote:I'm cool with the value of my gold being obliterated, if the trade-off is that we are able to mine asteroids.
I'd hope I'd get out before 'obliterated', but yes.
by Dieter
Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 30524

Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP

The comparison of the 60/40 returns to the 25x4 PP indeed isn't fair, because the owner of the 60/40 needs to hold cash. How much isn't clear, but most would recommend a sizeable enough chunk that it's a significant fraction of the stock/bond portfolio. Similarly, the 60/40 owner has to decide when...
by Dieter
Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 30524

Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP

flyingpylon wrote:
MG I also would never have guessed you were under 40.
Gen X birth years start in the early to mid '1960s, so he might not be under 40.
And/or 30ish using base 16.... :)

(yes, Computer major, GenX)
by Dieter
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659273

Re: The GOLD scream room

buddtholomew wrote:
MachineGhost wrote:Last time gold had such a big rally in the first half of the year was... wait for it... 1979, six months before the 18-year bear market top.

Call me the anti-gold bug doom porner. :D
Sweet. We have 6 months to party.
Or to hopefully hit a rebalance band. :)
by Dieter
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:29 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659273

Re: The GOLD scream room

<snip> Almost 4 years since my first Gold (ETF) purchase. Today at a -0.2% return -- almost break even! (Didn't go all in and still not, but have increased Gold allocation over the years.) There's something about reaching breakeven with long-held losing investments that is even more satisfying than...
by Dieter
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: 07-08-2016 YTD +14%
Replies: 5
Views: 20995

Re: 07-08-2016 YTD +14%

Ad Orientem wrote:Been a while since I've looked at PRPFX. I think interest in this fund has waned quite a bit around here. Anyways the fund is doing relatively well. I took a look today after checking my own PP (up around 10% ytd).
PERM is having a good year as well
by Dieter
Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard Sucks
Replies: 19
Views: 9353

Re: Vanguard Sucks

What's the advantage of a mutual fund over an ETF again? Price is less volatile - don't have to pay extra to ensure 'market' price is really 'market' price. Personally don't like ETFs -- Gold is my only ETF. And yeah, VG only has a few funds sub-3k (Star - active funds....), although don't they hav...
by Dieter
Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659273

Re: The GOLD scream room

Not to dampen the enthusiasm, but since I went all in with the PP about 7 years ago, the only sector that's still in the red is gold. I'm very happy that it's rising, of course, but it's still 2% below the break even point. Almost 4 years since my first Gold (ETF) purchase. Today at a -0.2% return ...
by Dieter
Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why should PP continue going up?
Replies: 89
Views: 38097

Re: Why should PP continue going up?

We're in uncharted territory here. The pp could turn out to be a miserable performer. I just can't think of a better way to invest, and long bonds appear to be a crucial part of the plan. I get the "I can't think of a better way to invest sentiment." I wouldn't be here or waste my time thinking abo...
by Dieter
Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 47855

Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio

I might have done something wrong, but did some manual checking for a monthly momentum strategy, and many changes over the last 15 months (8 or 9 depending on the date checked.) PP+SCV+MOM, TOP-2 & TOP-3 (where > 0%); otherwise Cash Based on 12 month trailing returns. Checked / re-allocate monthly M...