Search found 2721 matches

by Tortoise
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5246
Views: 846877

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Reality check: There was an exodus of quality posters to the board in December. As Charlie Munger says, invert, always invert. What if someone who is polite, considerate, well spoken/written wants to go to the "Other Section" and engage in political discussion? Must they wade through a sewer and be...
by Tortoise
Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:49 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Are We Living Under Communism?
Replies: 34
Views: 9580

Re: Are We Living Under Communism?

We still have firearms but that's about it. Notice you will almost never hear a politician refer to the country as a Republic? It's always a "democracy". Soon it will be "The People's Democratic Republic of America". Maybe that's because the word "republic" is too closely associated with the words ...
by Tortoise
Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5246
Views: 846877

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

My reaction to this is that if they are put off by the political forums, then why can they not just ignore those? I completely understand if it was in the investing forums because that is invading the core part of the board. But for the misc forums I think that outside of direct insults people shou...
by Tortoise
Mon Oct 04, 2021 6:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5246
Views: 846877

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I can tell you what Pritzker's benchmark is: His polling numbers.

When the majority of IL residents start disapproving of Pritzker's mask mandate and that starts to negatively affect his polling numbers, he will lift the mandate (based on "the science", of course).
by Tortoise
Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The end of the Roth conversions?
Replies: 31
Views: 3623

Re: The end of the Roth conversions?

Ditto on favoring simpler. The current tax code is way too complex.
by Tortoise
Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The end of the Roth conversions?
Replies: 31
Views: 3623

Re: The end of the Roth conversions?

I don't think people are mad about Roth conversions, they're mad that Peter Thiel made a lot of money in a way that they wouldn't have done even if they'd known about it. And he won't have to pay taxes on it. I don't even think many people were mad about that. It's just Dem politicians doing what t...
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another portfolio analysis site: PP
Replies: 1
Views: 1353

Re: Another portfolio analysis site: PP

A couple of the numbers in that summary look suspect to me. This is what ETF Replay calculates for the 4x25 PP using the same ETFs:

10Y Annualized Return: 7.8% (much greater than 5.98%)

Sharpe Ratio over past year: 1.03 (much greater than 0.53)
by Tortoise
Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1956
Views: 229072

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Are there some type people who seem to be more prone to reactions from these vaccination shots while other type people are far less prone? This Nature article addresses that question in quite a bit of detail. The authors of that article hypothesize that individual differences in symptoms after a va...
by Tortoise
Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214742

Re: The GOLD scream room

Gold's response to today's stock dip may be muted thus far, but I'm happy that the PP overall is down only -0.2% even though stocks are down -2.7%. Makes the stock drama less panicky.
by Tortoise
Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Meme- Then and now?
Replies: 5
Views: 1020

Re: Meme- Then and now?

If only we had a meme thread for standalone meme posts that aren't part of a topic thread... :)
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214742

Re: The GOLD scream room

If anything, I think you should be monitoring your portfolios as much as you can because if you're invested in the PP you are paying for that reduced volatility. Since you're also buying into the PP every single day you hold it a fresh evaluation of the assumptions of why you invested in it should ...
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1956
Views: 229072

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

These claims rely on his belief that there are somehow two immune systems: an "innate" one and then some other one that vaccines deal with. This is totally bogus and the reason why this fellow is completely alone (apart from the people who just want him to be right) in the scientific community. Huh...
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:08 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5246
Views: 846877

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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by Tortoise
Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1956
Views: 229072

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Whatever happened to the phrase: "A picture speaks a thousand words"? With the same for a chart or graph? I believe what I put here provides relevant information related to the topic and which really needs no more commentary or interpretation by me. It is, however, an invitation to others to provid...
by Tortoise
Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:11 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Forum Members with COVID-19
Replies: 208
Views: 38962

Re: Forum Members with COVID-19

I just got my results. IgG Covid19 Antibody Your Value Positive It won't be COVID-19 that kills me. For what it's worth, my brother got a positive result on a Covid antibody test last year around April/May (I think the test was just +/- and didn't report a number), so he chose not to get vaxxed sin...
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:31 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214742

Re: The GOLD scream room

I agree that you can't eat the PP's Sharpe ratio, but it does allow me to eat my food without puking due to stomach-churning drawdowns. ;)
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:21 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214742

Re: The GOLD scream room

I missed you saying “any”. Check your math last few years to see how pathetic PP has performed over a 60/40. Backtest on ETF Replay shows the following performance over the past 3 years: 60/40 (VTI/BND): 46% total return (13.4% CAGR), 13.8% volatility, -22% max drawdown 4x25 PP (VTI/TLT/IAU/SHV): 3...
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214742

Re: The GOLD scream room

There's an asset class out there with a guaranteed CAGR of 12-15% over any 10-12 year period? Nice! What is it? It’s called stocks. Anyway, this portfolio is dogshit, always has been and always will be. You might want to double-check your math, Bud: During the best 10-year period (1949-1958), the S...
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3591
Views: 1214742

Re: The GOLD scream room

There's an asset class out there with a guaranteed CAGR of 12-15% over any 10-12 year period? Nice! What is it?
by Tortoise
Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: It's all about China
Replies: 123
Views: 55960

Re: It's all about China

I did not realize that the most advanced chip business goes from companies like Apple to Taiwan not solely for cost reasons but because the capability to produce the most sophisticated chips does not even exist in the US, from a knowledge base standpoint. The Intel CEO concedes so in the interview....
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Netflix junkie
Replies: 293
Views: 86064

Re: Netflix junkie

If you like John Wick, I think you'll also dig Nobody.
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 03, 2021 3:39 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Ever had difficulty selling a certain type of gold coin?
Replies: 6
Views: 2153

Ever had difficulty selling a certain type of gold coin?

In the threads here about gold coins, I often see the claim that certain gold coins (e.g., gold Eagles in the US) are "easier" to sell since they're more readily accepted by dealers. Seems like many of us here (myself included) have only bought gold coins thus far and haven't sold any. For those of ...
by Tortoise
Thu Sep 02, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1956
Views: 229072

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

My mother in law was in a mood, and fighting with my father in law about never having been traveling when they were able, and now that they have money, are too old and physically hampered to enjoy it. Youth is wasted on the young. Imagine being 21 years old again, but with your current life experie...
by Tortoise
Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5246
Views: 846877

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I am in North Dallas in a town which historically has been pretty conservative but has changed quite a bit in recent years due to an influx of Californians amongst other things. So I would say politically it is 50/50 at best right now. For what it's worth, I live in a blue city in the bluest state ...
by Tortoise
Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5246
Views: 846877

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

A positive RT-PCR test result does not necessarily imply an active infection (meaning a live virus culture could be obtained from the person). It often implies only that some viral fragments are in the person's system, e.g., from their immune system successfully blocking an attempted infection. This...