Shale oil was a bubble funded by ZIRP. It did physically push a lot of oil into the market, but for which the full-cycle economics are unprofitable. Now we are unwinding that dump of unprofitable oil. After it goes, and because reservoirs quietly deplete every day, and because people keep having kid...

dragoncar wrote: This is exactly my problem with the Irish.  Coming here and turning our rivers green

And those Asians, and their stinky food, keep them out too.

Being that this section is lacking in posts and interest, I propose changing this section to highlight the myriad of other lazy portfolios. There are a lot of them out there and their discussion may draw more interest than simply discussing PRPFX and PERM ad nauseum. What do you think? Excellent id...

MAYBE you could use a very short term very high quality MUNI bond fund or ETF as cash if the taxes really roil you, but you'd have to look at it frequently (monthly or so) to make sure the share value is holding up, and ditch it if bad issuer news or interest rate hikes torpedo the share price. you ...

I would say, don't obsess over the taxes. The cash component has the "second best" tax profile of the four components. Why? Because long Treasuries pay more interest... and the S&P500 divided yield is more than the interest you're getting on your cash. If you are close to age 59.5, you...

It could be a sucker rally today.

I was looking at the PP component-by-component performance 1972-2015, for my own momentum studies. I wanted to see how many of the PP components earned more than inflation in any given year (the answer is 2.34). But... lo and behold... 2015 was the ONLY year out of 44 when NONE of the PP component e...

Eventually, when we are making 12 month comparisons with December 2, 2015, gold will look better... unless it keeps on going down to make new lows. But if it trends horizontally, we may be buying some later in 2016.

Another theory on Gold timing.... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-metric-buy-sell-085800436.html That's a good one, thanks. It's the same signal, almost, as the default MACD indicator when you look at Yahoo! Finance weekly (5 year) charts for GLD, IAU, or SGOL. Yup... buy gold someday... just no...

Why are 5-7 year US Treasuries selling off today, simultaneously with stocks? It's weird.

I've mentioned this before, but it should be repeated again. Personally, I would not feel comfortable holding any of the PP assets in isolation. For the portfolio to perform as expected, do not try and time your entry. Purchase all 4 assets at the same time (lordmetroid). I thought you abandoned th...

Tyler wrote: Speaking of gold, I'd like to add a few notes on the top places to buy physical bullion.  What might be considered the top-3 most popular reputable dealers?

Texas Precious Metals, Shiner, TX

I would consider silver. Platinum and palladium ETFs have high expense ratios, not as well traded so less liquid, larger spreads. All of the white metals perform more similarly due to their industrial nature. Doug Eberhardt suggests 75% gold, 25% silver. The GLTR ETF hold 2/3 gold, 1/3 white metals.

For small little trades, SGOL makes sense, like payroll deduction otherwise IAU which has lower expense ratio.

You could hand simulate on the Dow averages in the years of the Great Depression. No better test. Problem is I don't have cash and bond returns for those years.

I bought a tiny little slice of GDX, 0.5% of my portfolio. Lottery play money. Down 80% from the peak...

lordmetroid wrote: I am compiling data for backtesting a pure Dual momentum investment-strategy right now. Sure the ride may be more bumpy than the steady ride of a Permanent Portfolio but I can not be allowed to be discouraged by a bumpy road.

HERE IS YOUR BACKTEST, MERRY CHRISTMAS!

A relative bought some EDV and was not happy immediately after January 30 2015.

Lord you completely misunderstand Dual Momentum. That is all I have to say. The absolute momentum makes it loss limited and low volatilty

TLT can bite. IEF not as volatile.

It really pays to be stock light at this time.

If you use every available fund from your broker, you are at risk of buying into small funds, maybe lightly traded, with poor liquidity where it's difficult to sell in case of emergency, or the bid/ask spread is high, or the fees are high. The list I presented isn't as exciting as the brightest star...

You are using 3 - 8 period moving averages? What are your periods, days? If you're doing that kind of short-term trading, it is going to end in more tears. You'll come back here begging to get into a lazy portfolio, but then you will refuse it. I am not very excited about these. http://i779.photobuc...

Admittedly, we are probably looking at a different investment universe. The Japanese index fund is at +5,29% over the last 12 month. The New Technology Sector fund is +33,27% over the last 12 month. Just make sure your performance figures are current, not back-dated to 31/122015. Nothing on my scree...