Search found 1352 matches

by Hal
Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What is the "store of value" in the PP
Replies: 9
Views: 5650

What is the "store of value" in the PP

Hello everyone, After reading partially through a long email thread, ( http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html ) it has got me thinking as to what the "store of value" is in the PP. To explain further.... both shares and bonds generate a return, so they can be considered in...
by Hal
Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:37 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Performance
Replies: 12
Views: 9617

Re: TLT Performance

It’s just market noise. To reassure yourself, look at a graph of the 30-year Treasury yield (^TYX) year-to-date, and over the past 5 years, 10 years, and 30 years. Draw a trend line through it. It’s a steady downhill slope. As comforting as I wish that were, if you go back further that slope isn't ...
by Hal
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Benefits of State Marriage
Replies: 41
Views: 24802

Re: Benefits of State Marriage

Since a state marriage is a legally binding contract, romance has nothing to do with it. You shouldn't let emotions get in the way of making level-headed business decisions, which is essentially what a state marriage is. Unfortunately, most people don't realize this when they enter into it. Well fo...
by Hal
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:00 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Benefits of State Marriage
Replies: 41
Views: 24802

Re: Benefits of State Marriage

Curious, if any of you are married and had a prenup, how did that whole conversation go? I'm glad my husband and I didn't get a prenup. Sorry but it's just so plain unromantic. Since a state marriage is a legally binding contract, romance has nothing to do with it. You shouldn't let emotions get in...
by Hal
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:24 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: White Pride / Racism
Replies: 61
Views: 30589

Re: White Pride / Racism

There's definitely a bit of truth on the subject of biological differences between different kinds of people, but the subject always seems to reveal strong correlations between how much someone harps on it and how much of an asshole they are. The mere subject is a pretty good signpost that you're e...
by Hal
Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Benefits of State Marriage
Replies: 41
Views: 24802

Re: Benefits of State Marriage

Well done Moda, A very concise summation of the legal/financial side of a Marriage. Couple of queries: 1. Pugchief suggested a "pre-nup". Upon dissolution of a relationship, does this have any legal standing? If the partners agreed previously, upon the dissolution of a relationship, can th...
by Hal
Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:23 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Faber asked to leave Sprott board
Replies: 8
Views: 6140

Re: Faber asked to leave Sprott board

Marc Faber interview - his side of the story. 36 min mark onwards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qs4hdyXbUZU
by Hal
Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:15 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Benefits of State Marriage
Replies: 41
Views: 24802

Re: Benefits of State Marriage

I think that the benefits are more about life satisfaction than financial benefits. I found this link though which shows the overall financial benefit to society (rather than the individual) when more people get married before having children. http://www.heritage.org/poverty-and-inequality/report/m...
by Hal
Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Benefits of State Marriage
Replies: 41
Views: 24802

Re: Benefits of State Marriage

I've been doing an analysis lately on the benefits/costs of being married in the eyes of the state. Before I produce some of my "findings," I'd love to hear what people have to say here. Hi Moda, Don't forget to come back and enlighten us on your findings! Maybe some others have some more...
by Hal
Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Benefits of State Marriage
Replies: 41
Views: 24802

Re: Benefits of State Marriage

This link is from an Ex- Marine detailing the Marriage Contract and its issues DO NOT listen if you cannot tolerate bad/rough language, however his description of a "State Marriage Contract" is very concise. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pCHZuErZCM Is it true what he states about Marria...
by Hal
Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:01 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Where are you invested in gold?
Replies: 18
Views: 14113

Re: Where are you invested in gold?

For Perth unallocated coins: https://www.perthmint.com/storage/pricing.html 1% fee to buy or sell. Of the day's spot price? No storage fee. If you want the actual coins, convert to allocated, and pay 5% fabrication fee. What type of gold coins do they send? Do they report sales or anything to IRS? ...
by Hal
Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:54 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Where are you invested in gold?
Replies: 18
Views: 14113

Re: Where are you invested in gold?

Perth Mint for me. Only using the allocated option, where my holdings are isolated. And just for a trial, I requested some coins get delivered to myself, and yes, they arrived. PS. HB might have been onto something when he recommended holding coins. Mexico thinking about remonetising bullion coins. ...
by Hal
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do you think silver will beat future inflation?
Replies: 46
Views: 30026

Re: Do you think silver will beat future inflation?

Some silver monetary history, courtesy of Hugo Salinas Price.

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/331?idioma=2

Like the Eagle story at the beginning....
by Hal
Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Five Economic Conditions ? Not Four
Replies: 7
Views: 5068

Re: Five Economic Conditions ? Not Four

I don't know but I wonder what he'd have thought about QE, NIRP, ZIRP, etc. That's like an entirely new condition... Japan style stagnation. The PP has done pretty well in Japan, I understand. I don't think any new wisdom was necessary. That's good to hear. If they keep piling on more debt and QE, ...
by Hal
Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Five Economic Conditions ? Not Four
Replies: 7
Views: 5068

Re: Five Economic Conditions ? Not Four

So, what are thoughts on a reconfigured PP if Harry were to react to a 5th economic condition? More 30 year Treasuries? Less gold? Thanks. I don't really see the difference between inflation and devaluation the more I think about it.... Both methods increase the money supply. Devaluation: We will c...
by Hal
Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Five Economic Conditions ? Not Four
Replies: 7
Views: 5068

Five Economic Conditions ? Not Four

https://books.google.com.au/books?id=jwYEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA31&dq=harry+browne&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj55v7s2-DWAhUDTLwKHYvhDYAQ6AEIMjAC#v=onepage&q=harry%20browne&f=false Harry Browne thought devaluation was an economic condition as well ?? How would the PP handle devaluation?...
by Hal
Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: 1980's Gold Article
Replies: 0
Views: 2364

1980's Gold Article

https://books.google.com.au/books?id=OgUEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA98&lpg=PA98&dq=savings+vehicle+examples+gold&source=bl&ots=spgDrVkOQ8&sig=hglfW_RA3g5RtuBOSCjdRdHD8jo&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjvxI-jlt3WAhVGV7wKHbnqBzEQ6AEIRzAJ#v=onepage&q=savings%20vehicle%20examples%20gol...
by Hal
Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Looking for feedback for EU/US PP
Replies: 12
Views: 10038

Re: Looking for feedback for EU/US PP

As I discussed in my previous posts, I'd have only US PP because of the peculiar relationship between gold and USD (and no other currency as pointed out by HB). For all other countries, I'd stick with an appropriate Bogleheads-style portfolio (that you can add some gold to if you like). I believe L...
by Hal
Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:03 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Is Gold still the currency hedge it should be?
Replies: 17
Views: 14349

Re: Is Gold still the currency hedge it should be?

I actually consider Gold a store of wealth, rather than a medium of exchange. Harry Browne stated in one of his interviews that gold was the next popular currency/money after the USD, but honestly, I don't think that applies now. If I had the funds, I would hold farmland as a store of wealth as well...
by Hal
Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:50 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why do bonds with low yields provide less insurance?
Replies: 11
Views: 9201

Re: Why do bonds with low yields provide less insurance?

If they go for options like negative interest rates in the next crisis, bonds would look pretty good.....

But you are correct, I don't think HB would have envisaged the current situation.
Personally I would go with the minimum 15% allocation of long term bonds.
by Hal
Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio useful for itinerant people?
Replies: 2
Views: 3072

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio useful for itinerant people?

Frankly, I would set up a PP in using the world reserve currency. Currently USD. Shares could be all US if you wish or a blend with international. Then hold another separate allocation of cash from the country you are currently residing. I wouldn't want to hold a Tonga PP or Zimbabwe PP if you were ...
by Hal
Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Just stocks and gold. What allocation for European?
Replies: 4
Views: 4570

Re: Just stocks and gold. What allocation for European?

Few places to research... http://www.merkinvestments.com/downloads/2014-03-20-case-for-gold-optimal-portfolio-allocation.pdf http://actuary-info.blogspot.com.au/2011/02/gold-risk-or-rescue.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWqNTYhGCtU Very good site and a few other thoughts If you have any debt, ...
by Hal
Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference between PP and Risk Parity
Replies: 17
Views: 14139

Re: Difference between PP and Risk Parity

Thanks Kbg,

A really good find, will have to read it carefully.
This diagram hit home....

http://www.gestaltu.com/wp-content/uplo ... erfall.png
by Hal
Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference between PP and Risk Parity
Replies: 17
Views: 14139

Re: Difference between PP and Risk Parity

Hmmm. It seems to me the whole risk parity approach relies on the asset class volatility remaining stable. If volatility varies greatly from historical norms due to some shock, you could be left exposed with a large asset class holding. Eg: PP long term treasuries = 25%, All seasons portfolio = 40% ...
by Hal
Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference between PP and Risk Parity
Replies: 17
Views: 14139

Re: Difference between PP and Risk Parity

Thanks for your comments - most interesting. Tyler - I see you consider the PP as a simplified risk parity approach. After much reading of Bridgewater papers, I am not sure if HB meant the permanent portfolio to be a risk parity approach, rather he might have just came up with a similar allocation u...