Search found 2815 matches
- Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:39 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Figuring Out Religion
- Replies: 4052
- Views: 1386855
Re: Figuring Out Religion
Thanks to those replied. Whether someone approaches it via religion, philosophy or the middle finger it seems many still think about the big three existential questions. (Where from, why here, where going?) I enjoy religion as a topic and it is great to have discussions with people to get their take...
- Sat Mar 25, 2017 9:29 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: iShares vs. Vanguard
- Replies: 15
- Views: 18323
Re: iShares vs. Vanguard
Ummm...is there any question? I think you laid out a pretty clear case for the correct choice.
- Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:04 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Everyone who has been waiting can now buy gold!
- Replies: 10
- Views: 6011
Re: Everyone who has been waiting can now buy gold!
Hah! You overestimate your super powers in the universe. I just added some UGLD to my VP PP which defeats your selling power and guarantees it will go down.Libertarian666 wrote:I just sold a bunch and will be paying off my mortgage, so it is almost certain to skyrocket!
- Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:01 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Figuring Out Religion
- Replies: 4052
- Views: 1386855
Re: Figuring Out Religion
As a general rule, I despise internet discussion about religion and rarely pay attention to this thread but since there are a fair number of folks who don't believe in God on it, why do you waste your time on religious threads? I'd think you just wouldn't care to spend the time posting or reading a ...
- Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:14 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Derivatives Risk
- Replies: 16
- Views: 11001
Re: Derivatives Risk
Most of us on these forums are prudently taking care of tax planning, bad investor behavior, and inflation (where we can). I don't consider those pressing issues for conscientious folks like us. I asked about derivatives because they are the ultimate black swan. The PP was designed with black swans...
- Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:02 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Derivatives Risk
- Replies: 16
- Views: 11001
Re: Derivatives Risk
I won't say it is a bad one, but I will say it is too broad to provide a meaningful answer.dualstow wrote:I agree with you on priorities.
I do think the OP's question is a good one, though.
- Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:42 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Derivatives Risk
- Replies: 16
- Views: 11001
Re: Derivatives Risk
Like 2008. Well if we use ETFs for the big 4 then we will get a 16.11% return/7.78% CAR with a 14% max drawdown from 2007 - 2008. If we go with just 2008 then we get a .85% return and a 14% max dd. And all the derivatives directly related to the big 4 returned their index values less spread and the...
- Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:02 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Derivatives Risk
- Replies: 16
- Views: 11001
Re: Derivatives Risk
I did read it correctly, but it's like asking what is the risk to PP if money crashes. What does that mean? Money globally, the dollar, the concept of money, M1, M2, M3, electronic transaction exchanges? What?
- Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:05 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Derivatives Risk
- Replies: 16
- Views: 11001
Re: Derivatives Risk
There are derivatives and then there are derivatives...some are quite safe and others are beyond not safe. Some are less difficult to understand than how your ETF is put together and others are of mindblowing complexity. Mostly people who don't have a clue provide simple answers to this question...a...
- Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:27 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Teacher 403[b]
- Replies: 5
- Views: 7077
Re: Teacher 403[b]
I wouldn't pretend to offer advice other than get a spreadsheet that will calculate present and future values of money/periodic investments, make the relevant assumptions and see how the math works out.
And I'd really check out if IL has any connection to the contract.
And I'd really check out if IL has any connection to the contract.
- Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:36 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
- Replies: 571
- Views: 329712
Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Wonk, I think basically that's a good estimate. But as I've hammered here in my posts, specific results are very path dependent. If you can figure out a way to extend good runs the math of compounding can work for you instead of against you. I am of the belief it is better to employ bands as a resul...
- Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:54 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
- Replies: 571
- Views: 329712
Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Speaking of XIV...I will probably start reporting on a different mix this year along with the standard versions I reported last year. The new version will have 50-60% cash and either 12.5/10% to SPXL/TMF/UGLD/XIV. I need to do some more research though. On the surface it is looking to be, paradoxica...
- Wed Mar 01, 2017 9:43 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
- Replies: 571
- Views: 329712
Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
I finally bought a little more TMF in my little VP started 7/15. It was down to about 10.4%, very close to the band, and Fidelity just dropped a few bucks off commissions. I'm sure it will continue to drop like a rock now. It very well could...if you have my luck it is guaranteed to go down more. (...
- Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:51 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
- Replies: 571
- Views: 329712
Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
I'll wait until Mar 31 for numbers...just some position commentary for now. YTD 8+% and an account new high, beating a 100% SPY port thus far this year by about 3%. Hopefully some more new high mountain gets built before the inevitable find the next trough decline begins. That's all we can wish for....
- Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:14 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: How Overvalued Are Stocks?
- Replies: 61
- Views: 44506
Re: How Overvalued Are Stocks?
I just don't like the idea of options expiring worthless. Me neither, unless I'm selling covered calls. O0 Better to just have the right, i.e. comfortable, pp/vp stock allocation. Even trend-followers need a "sleep well at night" allocation, because you're possibly one calendar month away from the ...
- Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:41 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 350753
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Rather than try to figure this stuff out, just follow. Use something like a ratio of the two assets vs. a moving average of same or dual momentum. If there is a switch these types of things tend to be LT secular changes.
- Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:35 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: How Overvalued Are Stocks?
- Replies: 61
- Views: 44506
Re: How Overvalued Are Stocks?
Bogle says expected long term equity returns are ~2% real taking into account overvaluation. I don't follow this since according to his formula, for example, European market should return the same but if I look at the charts European has under-performed US significantly. These figures usually come ...
- Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:27 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alternative PP Models
- Replies: 26
- Views: 20310
Re: Alternative PP Models
I don't really want to invest the personal time but likewise if you would like to go over the trades I'm showing, happy to provide you the results.
- Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:18 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Absolutle Safety - Mutual Funds VS ETF???
- Replies: 12
- Views: 7227
Re: Absolutle Safety - Mutual Funds VS ETF???
Print your statements off once a month or quarter...at least you have some type of proof.
- Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:15 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 45
- Views: 30997
Re: New to Permanent Portfolio
According to some sources 85% of hold time your portfolio is in drawdown and 15% is peaking from the previous high. Get used to things going down.
- Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:51 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alternative PP Models
- Replies: 26
- Views: 20310
Re: Alternative PP Models
Just for fun I eliminated the C > 21d MA requirement and trading at the first of the month I get 12.08/-15.85. If one trades on the 15th we still get that big dip and a 7.42 CAGR
- Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:45 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alternative PP Models
- Replies: 26
- Views: 20310
Re: Alternative PP Models
To eliminate SHY bumping a positive 63 day ROC symbol I removed SHY from the symbol list and get the following: 8.98/-15.12 1st of month 8.01/-25.61 15th of month And I'm 99.99% sure that in the above where SHY is not an option and we would have added back in that CAGRs of 10 and 11 are not possible...
- Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:36 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Alternative PP Models
- Replies: 26
- Views: 20310
Re: Alternative PP Models
My logic is a wee tad different just to make the coding easier. 12/30-05 - Now PP Annual Rebalance - 6.87% CAGR/-14.02% MaxDD (intraday) PP Qtr Rebalance - 6.80/-15.08 EdwardJK System Qtr 1st of Month - 8.35/-14.92 Qtr 15 of Month - 7.36/-21.58 Personally I would be surprised if there was a full 3-5...
- Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:18 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4950
Re: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
Thanks Och. As a generalization bull markets before they end tend to be low volatility so a volatility weighting approach will more heavily weight the bullish asset. The effect is you are more heavily weighted in the thing when it goes down. You see this happen all the time in the popular cap weight...
- Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:28 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4950
Re: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
I could but there is plenty to read by doing some google searches. Equal weight vs risk parity or mean variance portfolios.