Search found 2815 matches

by Kbg
Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1386855

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Thanks to those replied. Whether someone approaches it via religion, philosophy or the middle finger it seems many still think about the big three existential questions. (Where from, why here, where going?) I enjoy religion as a topic and it is great to have discussions with people to get their take...
by Kbg
Sat Mar 25, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: iShares vs. Vanguard
Replies: 15
Views: 18323

Re: iShares vs. Vanguard

Ummm...is there any question? I think you laid out a pretty clear case for the correct choice.
by Kbg
Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Everyone who has been waiting can now buy gold!
Replies: 10
Views: 6011

Re: Everyone who has been waiting can now buy gold!

Libertarian666 wrote:I just sold a bunch and will be paying off my mortgage, so it is almost certain to skyrocket!
Hah! You overestimate your super powers in the universe. I just added some UGLD to my VP PP which defeats your selling power and guarantees it will go down. ;)
by Kbg
Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1386855

Re: Figuring Out Religion

As a general rule, I despise internet discussion about religion and rarely pay attention to this thread but since there are a fair number of folks who don't believe in God on it, why do you waste your time on religious threads? I'd think you just wouldn't care to spend the time posting or reading a ...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Derivatives Risk
Replies: 16
Views: 11001

Re: Derivatives Risk

Most of us on these forums are prudently taking care of tax planning, bad investor behavior, and inflation (where we can). I don't consider those pressing issues for conscientious folks like us. I asked about derivatives because they are the ultimate black swan. The PP was designed with black swans...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Derivatives Risk
Replies: 16
Views: 11001

Re: Derivatives Risk

dualstow wrote:I agree with you on priorities.
I do think the OP's question is a good one, though.
I won't say it is a bad one, but I will say it is too broad to provide a meaningful answer.
by Kbg
Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Derivatives Risk
Replies: 16
Views: 11001

Re: Derivatives Risk

Like 2008. Well if we use ETFs for the big 4 then we will get a 16.11% return/7.78% CAR with a 14% max drawdown from 2007 - 2008. If we go with just 2008 then we get a .85% return and a 14% max dd. And all the derivatives directly related to the big 4 returned their index values less spread and the...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Derivatives Risk
Replies: 16
Views: 11001

Re: Derivatives Risk

I did read it correctly, but it's like asking what is the risk to PP if money crashes. What does that mean? Money globally, the dollar, the concept of money, M1, M2, M3, electronic transaction exchanges? What?
by Kbg
Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Derivatives Risk
Replies: 16
Views: 11001

Re: Derivatives Risk

There are derivatives and then there are derivatives...some are quite safe and others are beyond not safe. Some are less difficult to understand than how your ETF is put together and others are of mindblowing complexity. Mostly people who don't have a clue provide simple answers to this question...a...
by Kbg
Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Teacher 403[b]
Replies: 5
Views: 7077

Re: Teacher 403[b]

I wouldn't pretend to offer advice other than get a spreadsheet that will calculate present and future values of money/periodic investments, make the relevant assumptions and see how the math works out.

And I'd really check out if IL has any connection to the contract.
by Kbg
Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329712

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Wonk, I think basically that's a good estimate. But as I've hammered here in my posts, specific results are very path dependent. If you can figure out a way to extend good runs the math of compounding can work for you instead of against you. I am of the belief it is better to employ bands as a resul...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329712

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Speaking of XIV...I will probably start reporting on a different mix this year along with the standard versions I reported last year. The new version will have 50-60% cash and either 12.5/10% to SPXL/TMF/UGLD/XIV. I need to do some more research though. On the surface it is looking to be, paradoxica...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 01, 2017 9:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329712

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I finally bought a little more TMF in my little VP started 7/15. It was down to about 10.4%, very close to the band, and Fidelity just dropped a few bucks off commissions. I'm sure it will continue to drop like a rock now. It very well could...if you have my luck it is guaranteed to go down more. (...
by Kbg
Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329712

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I'll wait until Mar 31 for numbers...just some position commentary for now. YTD 8+% and an account new high, beating a 100% SPY port thus far this year by about 3%. Hopefully some more new high mountain gets built before the inevitable find the next trough decline begins. That's all we can wish for....
by Kbg
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: How Overvalued Are Stocks?
Replies: 61
Views: 44506

Re: How Overvalued Are Stocks?

I just don't like the idea of options expiring worthless. Me neither, unless I'm selling covered calls. O0 Better to just have the right, i.e. comfortable, pp/vp stock allocation. Even trend-followers need a "sleep well at night" allocation, because you're possibly one calendar month away from the ...
by Kbg
Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350753

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Rather than try to figure this stuff out, just follow. Use something like a ratio of the two assets vs. a moving average of same or dual momentum. If there is a switch these types of things tend to be LT secular changes.
by Kbg
Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: How Overvalued Are Stocks?
Replies: 61
Views: 44506

Re: How Overvalued Are Stocks?

Bogle says expected long term equity returns are ~2% real taking into account overvaluation. I don't follow this since according to his formula, for example, European market should return the same but if I look at the charts European has under-performed US significantly. These figures usually come ...
by Kbg
Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20310

Re: Alternative PP Models

I don't really want to invest the personal time but likewise if you would like to go over the trades I'm showing, happy to provide you the results.
by Kbg
Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutle Safety - Mutual Funds VS ETF???
Replies: 12
Views: 7227

Re: Absolutle Safety - Mutual Funds VS ETF???

Print your statements off once a month or quarter...at least you have some type of proof.
by Kbg
Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 30997

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

According to some sources 85% of hold time your portfolio is in drawdown and 15% is peaking from the previous high. Get used to things going down.
by Kbg
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20310

Re: Alternative PP Models

Just for fun I eliminated the C > 21d MA requirement and trading at the first of the month I get 12.08/-15.85. If one trades on the 15th we still get that big dip and a 7.42 CAGR
by Kbg
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20310

Re: Alternative PP Models

To eliminate SHY bumping a positive 63 day ROC symbol I removed SHY from the symbol list and get the following: 8.98/-15.12 1st of month 8.01/-25.61 15th of month And I'm 99.99% sure that in the above where SHY is not an option and we would have added back in that CAGRs of 10 and 11 are not possible...
by Kbg
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20310

Re: Alternative PP Models

My logic is a wee tad different just to make the coding easier. 12/30-05 - Now PP Annual Rebalance - 6.87% CAGR/-14.02% MaxDD (intraday) PP Qtr Rebalance - 6.80/-15.08 EdwardJK System Qtr 1st of Month - 8.35/-14.92 Qtr 15 of Month - 7.36/-21.58 Personally I would be surprised if there was a full 3-5...
by Kbg
Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
Replies: 6
Views: 4950

Re: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?

Thanks Och. As a generalization bull markets before they end tend to be low volatility so a volatility weighting approach will more heavily weight the bullish asset. The effect is you are more heavily weighted in the thing when it goes down. You see this happen all the time in the popular cap weight...
by Kbg
Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
Replies: 6
Views: 4950

Re: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?

I could but there is plenty to read by doing some google searches. Equal weight vs risk parity or mean variance portfolios.