Trump says the US Dollar is too strong, he wants it to be weaker to spur exports. But how does this happen if the Fed raises interest rates in 2017, and they really do have to get off of these unnaturally low rates. I don't see the rest of the world racing to raise rates faster than us. Seems like t...

I noticed the same thing about corporate bonds when I was researching the PP, before I bought into it. It made me realize just how well the PP's investments were chosen: they're an elemental set with the minimum number of components needed to reflect all market forces. All other assets can be rough...

If you go to portfolio visualizer.com or similar modeling software, and compare 15% US Stocks + 85% Intermediate US Treasuries (blue), you get the exact same long-term CAGR, as High Yield Corporate Bonds (red) but less drawdown, better Sharpe and Sortino ratios. From a total return POV, no one shoul...

trying to predict what over valued means can be futile . stocks were deemed to be so over valued in 1982 that investors were told to stay away . in one year p/e's jumped by 50% . well as we now now that was the kick off to one of the greatest bull markets in history . most investors missed the bigg...

Right now it seems that a Trump reduction in corporate taxes is priced in. Stocks have been steadily increasing since March 2016 for the most part. Disclaimer: my momentum investing model has me in 100% stocks currently, could be a wild ride! When you look at the VIX, it makes these concave-upward ...

My stop-loss is set at 2060 on the S&P500. That's a target based on my use of Dual Momentum (I use April '16 as my lookback reference, not February '16... I've mentioned this before. I'm being cautious). We're at 2297 now. Some optimists think we could make 2500. So am I willing to lose -10% in ...

Got the bars, and very pleased with them.

However, I'm still unclear about exactly what you are describing when you say, "Risk is highest when volatility is lowest which is exactly the worst place to be when that asset goes off the inevitable periodic cliff and in major SHTF events most correlations spike." Are you saying that re...

I like the idea behind bands instead of timeframes, so I would aim for narrower bands to capture more gains. This statement is demonstrably not true. It is true for a ranging market/set of instruments, it is not true for a trending market/set of instruments. Applause! "Let your winners run, cu...

The stock market bubble is going to pop. It's getting bigger and bigger like an animated cartoon balloon.

dualstow wrote:You've got two lucky children.

I am a lucky Father! Two great kids. All grown up.

I made the Big Buy (for me) of two 10 oz bars yesterday, too bad those statements were made about weakening the US Dollar, which spiked gold. That's how it goes. I'm getting close to what I consider minimal portfolio insurance, 5% gold. Goal is 10% (per Jim Rickards). When I hit 5% in a few weeks I'...

Maybe the answer is to turn around the H1B system so that corporations have to make a case that there is a shortage of a specific skill set in order to get permission to allow H1B visas for a fixed number of people with that skill set (just enough to meet the defined shortage). Then, any company ca...

I think the legislation is simple, and transparent, any easy for businesses to comply with. It tells businesses very clearly that they can move their global high potential performers and executives into the USA, but they can't hire non-US nationals as entry level employees, who will displace America...

Kbg wrote:There is another study at Longboard which shows investors kill their bond returns (and alts) even more than their stock returns as a percentage of total return.

Sure, because there is an expectation that bonds are "safe". Not really! They are not CDs.

Please write to your Members of Congress to ask for H1-B visa program reforms, to prevent Americans workers from being replaced with low-wage indentured servants on H1-B visas. It's not just in tech, it's in almost every industry. It's here in the Texas oilfield, where the unemployment is rampant, a...

I don't understand the problem it's trying to solve. It is so you don't lose money if the US Dollar strengthens?

SHTF? Cheap booze, condoms, 9 mm, .223, .22, marijuana, junk silver, cigarettes, vape juice, toilet paper, beef jerky, better than gold.

If the amount you are going to buy means that the 2% markup makes a significant different, kilo bars probably have even smaller spreads. But the 400 oz. good delivery bar has the lowest premium, saving about $1/oz. over the 100 oz. bar and $10/oz. over the 10 oz. bar, if I'm doing the math right. K...

But if you were buying a coin a month, or at least a coin at a time, why the jump to bars? Just for the ~2% markup advantage? (Assuming coins are about 4% markup). Yes, just for the markup advantage. If there was no price difference I wouldn't do it. For the amount I want to buy, it makes a differe...

If you're buying from the Perth Mint, are you going to use their allocated storage? It's a pretty hefty minimum ($50K) but if you're talking about 10 oz bars in plural I guess that's not a problem. I think about allocated storage all the time, but I'm not convinced of why it helps when it's not in ...

you may have to pay an assay fee when selling . they hammered me on that fee many years ago selling silver bars . I hope to sell back to the same dealer someday, or my heirs will. I'll ask them. Anyone else get hit with assay fees if you kept the gold bar in the original tamper resistant serial num...

Go to Portfoliovisualizer.com, to the Timing Models section, and see if you can replicate your method there. It's a good user interface. If you register, you can save your models. It's all free.

I'm thinking of buying 10 oz Perth Mint gold bars, and I don't intend to remove the tamper-resistant packaging. Does anyone see any downside relative to coins? They are about 2% over spot.

Wow. Well, just in time for my tax refund.