I've mellowed a lot on the gun issue also, but from the other direction.  I used to be very anti-guns, but now I have lots of friends with guns, and I'm starting to feel that they are not so bad if treated with the proper respect.  That said, I still don't see myself ever owning a gun.  I figure if ...

I'm no expert on this stuff, but I would just go 1/3 to 1/2 in the stock index fund and 1/2 - 2/3 in the bond index fund, and skip the higher ER stable value fund.  You can think of the bond index fund as a mix of longer-term and shorter-term (cashish) bonds.  Then, hold gold and emergency cash outs...

Here's how I look at it.  For run-of-the-mill scenarios, 15% gold works great in a portfolio.  The extra 10% gold that HB recommends is for extra insurance in case of extraordinary end-of-the-world scenarios.  This extra 10% isn't going to have a very negative effect on your returns in normal times,...

I seem to have some malware on my computer.  I'm getting constant pop up windows in Chrome telling me to call a 800 number for help getting rid of malware that's on my computer, and every web page I look at, including this one, has a bunch of live links that don't belong there.  I'm sure if I click ...

Libertarian666 wrote:

stuper1 wrote: Why doesn't PHYS have the same big discount as GTU the past couple years?

Because PHYS has a physical redemption option. Gee, I wonder if that has any relation to its ticker symbol? 

PHYS is a closed-end fund like GTU.  Why does PHYS allow physical redemption and GTU doesn't?

Why doesn't PHYS have the same big discount as GTU the past couple years?

Using www.portfoliovisualizer.com, I tried the vanilla PP (VTI/TLT/GLD/SHV rebalanced annually) versus a PP with EDV substituted for TLT, and then a PP with EDV substituted for TLT and with VXF substituted for VTI.  Results are: 1:    7.66% CAGR, 1.15 Sharpe 2:    8.30% CAGR, 1.11 Sharpe 3:    9.02%...

What are the CAGR and DD for 50% cash and 16.67% in each of the 3x funds?

Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not. Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why. Have you looked at returns f...

If you are market-timing your entry into the PP, then the entire strategy is not for you, IMO. Just a heads up, according to peaktotrough, the PP has only had a DD above 10% six times since 1972. So if you are waiting for the PP to crash before buying in, you might have to wait a while. The best ti...

Its completely my own doing, but I don't want to check back in 6 months and find the portfolio has declined by 20%. Then, the PP is a good portfolio for you.  How many times in the past has it gone down by 20% in 6 months (hint:  the answer is a nice, round number that is less than one).  Has a sto...

4 continuous days of losses...what's the point? Stocks decline and either gold or treasuries follow suit as well. Stocks go up with gold and treasuries falling. Might as well just hold equities and cash. How many continuous days of losses in equities would it take for you to feel otherwise?  Best t...

I think "buy low, sell high" always applies.  The PP has that idea baked in with the 15/35 rebalancing bands, which keeps you from selling losing assets until they turn around and become winning assets.

Not sure where you got 9% long term.  The "expectation" I've heard is 4% real return, after inflation, as a 3- to 5-year average.  I think the PP is keeping up with that pretty well, and I don't see why it won't continue to.

I'm pretty sure that if you leave the bullion to your church in your will, they aren't going to reject it.  They'll find a way to accept it.

For me, it will go to my children, along with detailed instructions on how to set up a Permanent Portfolio for themselves, if they haven't already.

Thanks for the tip, Moda.  These podcasts make for great listening in the car.  I just started the recent one on U.S. torture of (alleged) terrorists.  I wish everyone who thinks its okay to waterboard these guys would listen to this.  Mr. Carlin sounds like what a true American should sound like --...

It sounds like you are both lucky to have each other.  Sorry for being so nosy.  It did cross my mind that maybe you were riffing, but I couldn't help asking, because I thought it would be pretty interesting if you did send her actual gold.

The best part of gold is having it in your possession (or close thereto; e.g., a bank safe deposit) in case of lots of different types of catastrophes.  For example, what if the ETF managers turn out to be crooks, or what if a solar flare hits and knocks out all electrical supplies (all those zeros ...

Thanks, Mark.  That sounds a lot like my 14 year old son.  Hopefully, he'll get motivated at some point also.

Now, I'm curious about the second half of what you said.  You send her gold every month?  As in bullion?

Mark Leavy wrote: She fixed my son when I had no idea what to do.

Do you care to elaborate?  Just curious as a fellow parent with a teenage son and wanting to be as ready as possible for whatever interesting situations might be headed our way.

I recently finished an entertaining novel called "The Barbarian Nurseries" by Hector Tobar, which deals with immigration issues, more from an immigrant's perspective.  I recommend it, especially since it's one of the rare novels that didn't leave me depressed by the end. I still say, "...

stuper1, You're probably right.  I'm not very studied on the topic.  But this is what I want: 1) Significantly lower the inflow of new illegal immigrants. 2) Respect somewhat the dignity of people who consider the U.S. home by not starving/transporting them out of the country. Sounds good to me.  T...

It sounds like you are in retirement already.  To me, a good balance would be toward the end of each year to pull out as much money from your retirement account to just keep you below the next higher tax bracket, and use that money to buy physical gold.  That way you don't pay a higher tax rate on t...

Good choice.  You will sleep much better at night knowing that if push comes to shove you can always walk over to your bank, sew a few gold coins into your clothing, and fly off to start a new life in some remote place. YMMV.

In theory, I'm in favor of building a "wall".  In practice, I think it would be a terrible waste of money, because it wouldn't work (no matter what form it takes).  Humans are smart.  Desperate humans are especially smart.  They will find a way to get past the "wall".  Think of t...