Search found 248 matches

by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:16 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18428

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Doesn't the strength of the US dollar factor into all of this? I recently read that it's up 14% in 2022 and is at its highest level in 20 years compared to other currencies. Yes, strong dollar was mentioned as well, but experts were saying that gold has to compete with currency so as long as bond y...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 10:57 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 54
Views: 18428

Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

So I was doing some research today on why gold hasn't been going up lately. The recurring theme I saw was that experts think that in an environment where there is high inflation and interest rates are steadily rising and are expected to rise further, gold does not do well. But after the Fed stops ra...
by jason
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best passive real estate investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 1665

Best passive real estate investments?

I'm looking to do passive investment in real estate that involves lower-end residential housing/apartment buildings. I'm looking for "lower-end" because it's supposedly more recession-proof than higher-end housing. What are the historical yields (total return and dividends/cash flow) for this type o...
by jason
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33599

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Thanks! Let's hope this ends up being a short one (bounces back soon). When is gold going to come to the rescue?!?
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33599

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Thanks! I can see that 2008 was a little bit worse. There were also some bad draw-downs in the early 80s. Gives me hope!
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 10:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33599

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The PP is definitely having its worst draw-down since year 2008. But so is the 60/40 Boglehead portfolio. And so is just about every other portfolio. There's nowhere to hide. This current era reminds me of the old saying "May you live in interesting times". ;) How much was the draw-down in 2008? Is...
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:53 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Private real estate funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1693

Re: Private real estate funds

I have multiple friends and relatives who have invested in private real estate funds (totally passive investment). The way it works, the fund gathers many millions (hundreds of millions, typically) of dollars, buys a plot of land, builds an apartment complex, fills it with tenants, then they sell t...
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33599

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Jason, if you don't mind me asking, what was your portfolio withdrawal rate expected to be when you retired? 4% withdrawal rate. And that was tight - no real wiggle room. My PP is down 15%. It was a bit heavy on stocks and bonds and light on cash - I was overdue to rebalance. If I had rebalanced at...
by jason
Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33599

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I think the one bright spot has been real estate. Low-end residential real estate such as apartment buildings tend to be somewhat recession-proof. At this point I’m regretting having not gotten into that. There are many passive investing options for this.
by jason
Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Private real estate funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1693

Private real estate funds

I have multiple friends and relatives who have invested in private real estate funds (totally passive investment). The way it works, the fund gathers many millions (hundreds of millions, typically) of dollars, buys a plot of land, builds an apartment complex, fills it with tenants, then they sell th...
by jason
Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33599

PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I was just wondering if the performance of the PP year-to-date is the worst it has ever performed, or has it had a period(s) in the past where it actually performed worse? I've been doing the PP for 9 years and my returns are anemic. My CAGR is around 5%. Because I am retired and living off of my in...
by jason
Mon May 23, 2022 10:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 3184

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

I used to use peaktotrough.com all the time for backtesting. Since that website shut down quite a while ago, I haven't been able to find a good replacement. Portfoliovisualizer and other websites I have found do not go all the way back to the Nixon shock, around August 15, 1971, the date that the g...
by jason
Fri May 20, 2022 10:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 3184

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

While it uses simple annual rebalancing rather than bands, Portfolio Charts has the data coverage you're looking for (back to 1970). Here's the dedicated Permanent Portfolio page: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/permanent-portfolio/ And here's a tool where you can adjust the percentages of th...
by jason
Fri May 20, 2022 9:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 3184

Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

I used to use peaktotrough.com all the time for backtesting. Since that website shut down quite a while ago, I haven't been able to find a good replacement. Portfoliovisualizer and other websites I have found do not go all the way back to the Nixon shock, around August 15, 1971, the date that the go...
by jason
Wed May 18, 2022 4:08 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP without cash
Replies: 2
Views: 788

Re: PP without cash

If I were going cashless, personally this would be my approach. 1. 50/50 Stock/Bonds as per Ben Graham 2. Add Gold for minimum volatility as per BelangP Already had the allocations memorised for the Pacific Peso (AUD) 8) Edit: Results for USA 24% Gold, 38% TSM, 38% LTT Thanks. How did you come up w...
by jason
Sat May 14, 2022 4:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP without cash
Replies: 2
Views: 788

PP without cash

I think I've seen the PP without cash called the "juiced Permanent Portfolio." 1/3rd stock market, 1/3 gold, 1/3 LTTs. Historically is appears to have outperformed the PP by 1%+ CAGR. And the volatility and drawdowns aren't too bad. Have others here considered this? Is there already a discussion thr...
by jason
Sat May 14, 2022 4:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 25
Views: 4445

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

The scenario playing out now is one that I envisioned and was one of the reasons why I chose the PP in the first place. What is playing out now is high inflation, rising interest rates, with a potentially weakening economy. This was the exact scenario that I thought gold was supposed to bail us out ...
by jason
Sat May 14, 2022 3:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 25
Views: 4445

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

I don't know of another asset allocation that would be less stressful. I still think the PP is the sweet spot for risk/reward for an investment account where you really can't afford to lose money, which is my situation. Did Harry Browne say that for people in retirement taking cash out of the PP ea...
by jason
Sat May 14, 2022 11:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 25
Views: 4445

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

I don't know of another asset allocation that would be less stressful. I still think the PP is the sweet spot for risk/reward for an investment account where you really can't afford to lose money, which is my situation. Did Harry Browne say that for people in retirement taking cash out of the PP eac...
by jason
Thu May 12, 2022 4:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 25
Views: 4445

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Look to see if you can harvest any tax losses. If yes, keep the results in cash and sell something else for cash equal to your losses [no capital gain tax]. I can't see your portfolio so this may or may not be helpful. Good Luck. I have no losses to harvest. I have to sell gold and stocks, both of ...
by jason
Thu May 12, 2022 11:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 25
Views: 4445

Rebalancing advice needed

So I am semi-retired and mostly living off of my PP which is in a taxable account because I sold my business a few years ago. I started another business but the income is small so I mainly live off of my PP. I rebalanced it at one point back to 25/25/25/25 years ago, but having been draining the cas...
by jason
Thu Apr 07, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140849

Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I've been doing the HBPP for almost 9 years and I've done decently well with it. It's been a bit frustrating to see inflation soaring lately and my portfolio basically going nowhere or dropping a bit. And it's been especially frustrating to watch Treasuries drop a lot and it seems the stage is set f...
by jason
Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?
Replies: 2
Views: 1117

When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?

CAGR of the PP from Jan 2021 through now is around 1%. Inflation during that time frame was over 8%, so we are about 11% short of the inflation plus 4% that the PP usually makes. I know it takes time to work itself out. Historically, has there been a delay between when inflation kicks in and the PP ...
by jason
Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Safest place to store gold in a nuclear war?
Replies: 3
Views: 1220

Re: Safest place to store gold in a nuclear war?

Maybe this has been discussed in the past. In the off chance there is a global thermonuclear war, where is the best place for one's gold to be? I'm guessing my PHYS shares aren't it. But I worry about storing with a little company like GoldMoney, etc. What company, storage method, and storage locat...
by jason
Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:09 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Safest place to store gold in a nuclear war?
Replies: 3
Views: 1220

Safest place to store gold in a nuclear war?

Maybe this has been discussed in the past. In the off chance there is a global thermonuclear war, where is the best place for one's gold to be? I'm guessing my PHYS shares aren't it. But I worry about storing with a little company like GoldMoney, etc. What company, storage method, and storage locati...