Back when kbg was posting on here (I wish he still were), he would often point out that gold was getting weaker or stronger mainly due to which way the US Dollar Index was moving. This data only goes back to 1/1/2000 but is probably worth a look: https://en.macromicro.me/collections/45/mm-gold-pric...

Still think the ladders are too complicated I've been thinking the opposite. Over here (UK) and our TIPS (index linked gilts) are pretty much at around 1% real yields across the yield curve https://www.yieldgimp.com/index-linked-gilt-yields Target 2.3% real from that, 33% initial allocation and tha...

Commentary on the above article .... https://www.mymoneyblog.com/tips-real-yields-august-2023.html?lctg=9627344 TIPS Real Yields ~2% Across All Maturities; 4.4% Guaranteed 30-Year Withdrawal Rate AUGUST 15, 2023 BY JONATHAN PING 5 COMMENTS In addition, as David Enna of Tipswatch points out, this is...

Commentary on the above article .... https://www.mymoneyblog.com/tips-real-yields-august-2023.html?lctg=9627344 TIPS Real Yields ~2% Across All Maturities; 4.4% Guaranteed 30-Year Withdrawal Rate AUGUST 15, 2023 BY JONATHAN PING 5 COMMENTS In addition, as David Enna of Tipswatch points out, this is...

Looks like they're talking about gold again over at the Knuckleheads forum. I like the calculator posted by Chuck https://www.calculateme.com/precious-metals/gold/value/ I like your avatar dualstow. Kin Kura Pilsner (5%) beer. A intriguing logo of gold (roof) and integrated western KURA. https://i....

Successive Fed chairs each generally appreciated that if the dollar didn't somewhat align with gold that bad things tend to happen. But where periodic revisions of the peg rate are also required. Each of the historic revisions have largely been driven by Treasury actions, not the Fed (who in some ca...

While TIPS bonds aren't often discussed here they've certainly been a hot topic of late on mainstream forums like Bogleheads and sites such as Morningstar - in part because for the first time in many years it's possible to construct a ladder of them yielding a 4%+ inflation-adjusted safe withdrawal...

Also, don't we really only have a shade over 3 totally independent 30 year cycles? 3 is a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny sample. In more extreme cases I extend mine out to around 11. US (from 1871), UK (from 1896), Japan (since 1972). Spans a broader range of events such as decline of the Pound as the pred...

To put some figures out there, over 120+ years I estimate that a PP sustained a 30 year 4% SWR in all but 1.5% of cases, and where they failed it still got to support most of 30 years. If for instance the worst case only supported 25 years in 1.5% of cases, then likely that was still better than the...

Don't forget that with a 4% 30 year SWR TIPS ladder that assumes all is spent, no residual. For other asset allocations 4% 30 year SWR was around the worst case outcome, left nothing remaining ... but in the more usual/average case tended to leave a very decent residual amount remaining, in some cas...

But is vulnerable to where states with massive data centers might hack a central software server to roll out a virus/bug/feature whereby other states systems are impeded. Maybe something like where a later version of the software contains a 'bug' that is commonly rolled out, but ignored by the atta...

Here in the UK our Index Linked Gilts, similar to TIPS have price appreciation (inflation element) tax exempt, coupon interest is however taxable, but where over recent years coupon interest is very low, near insignificant tax. A good option for building up a compliment to other sources of income su...

But is vulnerable to where states with massive data centers might hack a central software server to roll out a virus/bug/feature whereby other states systems are impeded. Maybe something like where a later version of the software contains a 'bug' that is commonly rolled out, but ignored by the atta...

Long term... I bought gold 2015-2018 at a good price, but I'm giving it until 2030, if no serious step above the past ATHs by then I'm out. Fifteen years is long enough. It will be time for digitization, simplification and streamlining for my heirs and future caregivers to take precedence. It doesn...

Long term... I bought gold 2015-2018 at a good price, but I'm giving it until 2030, if no serious step above the past ATHs by then I'm out. Fifteen years is long enough. It will be time for digitization, simplification and streamlining for my heirs and future caregivers to take precedence. It doesn...

In nominal dollar terms the price of gold stepped up during the 1970's, 1980/1990 were a plateau, 2000's were a step (dot com bubble, financial crisis), 2010's were a plateau, excepting a relatively small 2020 step (Covid) as part of that. A nice feature with that is if you blend stocks with gold t...

There is no substitute for gold. It is a physical (yet compact!), indestructible, decentralized bearer instrument of limited supply. Crypto and public (albeit encrypted) ledger will at some point hit a wall where it becomes all too obvious that ledgers are best kept private, or otherwise are at ris...

So when does gold catch a bid? Dow is down -321 right now, 10 year interest rates are down, US Dollar is down, why is gold also down? You didn't go to the meeting? :-) Of course the current excuse is gold is being sold to cover the margin calls of the other holdings or some such like that. It will ...

Maybe a PP back then might have been 50% gold/silver coins (both the PP cash and gold elements), 25% F&C ... similar to 25% stock, 25% Consoles (long dated treasury like). 0% inflation, relatively consistent 0% real (gold/cash), 5% from F&C, 3% from Consoles, 2% total portfolio real. Which f...

In short, assuming that a saver in the 1879-1934 era could earn anything approaching a safe 5% return was--except for a brief period in the late 1910s and early 1920s--a fantasy; in order to have the chance of earning 5% or more he/she had to either take bond market risk, stock market risk, commodi...

I'm also somewhat worried about the ishares and SPDR etfs in the sense that they include the UK and Switzerland which don't use the Euro. This is counter the principles outlined in the permanent portfolio book I believe? There are EU countries that also haven't adopted the Euro. The Eurozone/Euro m...

Over Tuesday / Wednesday I read William Bernstein's excellent new book. I am now on my second reading, doing so in a studying fashion. Just moments ago I read what he had to say about gold / silver. "Unlike crude oil or soybeans, you can store a reasonable amount of gold, but as we just saw, i...

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...