Search found 115 matches

by Matthew19
Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 81
Views: 27098

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

A Keynesian and a Monetarist walk into a bar.... Naa, Austrian. "The Austrian school believes any increase in the money supply not supported by an increase in the production of goods and services leads to an increase in prices, but the prices of all goods do not increase simultaneously." Aggregate ...
by Matthew19
Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 81
Views: 27098

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

Technical point...inflation is not more money in circulation, inflation is the prices of actual goods going up. As Japan has proved going on three decades now a lot of money in circulation does not equal inflation. Inflation is an expansion of the money supply. It can show itself in asset price inc...
by Matthew19
Fri May 13, 2022 9:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 291
Views: 50238

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

HB was a fan of free market, Austrian economics. I believe it was Hayek who somewhat predicted Bitcoin - “I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do...
by Matthew19
Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Russian PP
Replies: 4
Views: 1686

Russian PP

How would it be performing right now? Would you be rebalancing from gold into stocks and bonds?
by Matthew19
Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:58 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Are The Gold Miners A More Tax Friendly Investment?
Replies: 7
Views: 2185

Re: Are The Gold Miners A More Tax Friendly Investment?

mining stocks are so unpredictable. You could have a great mine that's functioning well and then the gov't slaps on some environmental taxes. Or you could have a junk mine that's lying about potential reserves. It's all a big mess and in no way an alternative to owning gold. The miners are one of th...
by Matthew19
Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:04 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Revisiting PMGOLD
Replies: 6
Views: 1997

Re: Revisiting PMGOLD

Personally, I prefer the Perth Mint Depository program. Less counterparty risk. https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-depository-program/ vs https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-gold-ASX-PMGOLD/ Have been using the depository program for years. Absolutely no issues. Interesting. any ex...
by Matthew19
Tue Feb 08, 2022 12:19 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Revisiting PMGOLD
Replies: 6
Views: 1997

Re: Revisiting PMGOLD

Personally, I prefer the Perth Mint Depository program. Less counterparty risk. https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-depository-program/ vs https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-gold-ASX-PMGOLD/ Have been using the depository program for years. Absolutely no issues. Interesting. any ex...
by Matthew19
Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Revisiting PMGOLD
Replies: 6
Views: 1997

Revisiting PMGOLD

Anyone considered this again? Seems to have much less counterparty risk than other ETFs considering the custodian is Perth rather than these bankers. Seems to be the next best option to physical and would be an easy purchase on the ASX through Interactive Brokers. Am I missing anything? In the scena...
by Matthew19
Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 86
Views: 21327

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

BTC is less than 1 trillion market cap. Gold is over 10 trillion. If we generously assume that 50% of bitcoin investment would have otherwise gone into gold, that'd mean what, 5% difference in gold price?
by Matthew19
Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2nd asset in tax deferred?
Replies: 17
Views: 4374

Re: 2nd asset in tax deferred?

I regret that I let bogleheads steer me toward putting bonds in my tax-deferred accounts. I've added stocks for several years now. Especially the Roth IRA but also a Fidelity solo 401K. I don’t know how to do the math between paying the tax on bond payments each year and deferring stock gains tax, ...
by Matthew19
Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2nd asset in tax deferred?
Replies: 17
Views: 4374

Re: 2nd asset in tax deferred?

It's a self employed 401k, so I can buy anything you normally could with a Fidelity account. I also have an inherited IRA that I must withdraw within 10 years.
by Matthew19
Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2nd asset in tax deferred?
Replies: 17
Views: 4374

2nd asset in tax deferred?

I've finally crossed the point where I can hold something alongside bonds in my 401k. I know cash is often suggested, but with stupid low rates, would stocks make more sense?
by Matthew19
Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid SORR?
Replies: 33
Views: 7237

Re: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid S

I tip toed in back in 2016 I think. Bought about 50% portfolio and waited 6 months to buy another 50%. Cost me about 50k in missed gains at the time but it was the only emotionally viable option. And it could just as easily worked out to the good. So why not be more comfortable? It was the more com...
by Matthew19
Fri Feb 04, 2022 10:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid SORR?
Replies: 33
Views: 7237

Re: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid S

I tip toed in back in 2016 I think. Bought about 50% portfolio and waited 6 months to buy another 50%. Cost me about 50k in missed gains at the time but it was the only emotionally viable option. The PP is an emotional commitment, sometimes that means letting the façade of control slowly slip away v...
by Matthew19
Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dip Buying the PP
Replies: 5
Views: 1763

Re: Dip Buying the PP

Maybe set your rebalance bands tighter so you are rebalancing more often, and not necessarily when you emotionally think it's a good time is my suggestion. Like today...stocks look like a good buy, but you never know. There's a whole weekend for this new variant news to get potentially worse. Perso...
by Matthew19
Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another phase completed!
Replies: 17
Views: 7858

Re: Another phase completed!

At some point this grand Permanent Portfolio thinking process will be over and I can then move my thinking focus elsewhere. Vinny I did the same thing - 4 months of study. several Evernote pages filled with notes. The PP is simple to implement but takes a while to accept and grasp. once you do ther...
by Matthew19
Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP musings
Replies: 10
Views: 3400

Re: PP musings

30% cash in a near zero interest rate environment and stated inflation running at over 4% ?? Cash is kind of like an option on future assets, and one has to pay a premium for options. Yeah but with no end in sight to low rates, I have a hard time putting any money into something that is guaranteed ...
by Matthew19
Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 224
Views: 111036

Re: BTC in the PP

I agree that BTC will inflate less than USD. But time value is based on preferences, and that would depend on the interest rate and expectations of the price vs other currencies or investment options. There are plenty of people who would like to be short BTC right now because they think it’s overval...
by Matthew19
Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:00 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 224
Views: 111036

Re: BTC in the PP

As for BTC in the PP, I think it could be seen as part of a VP in the same way that Tyler views the golden butterfly as a PP with a small cap value VP added to it. The reason is to capture those fleeing dollars for safety from inflation. You can’t argue that BTC doesn’t siphon off that inflation hed...
by Matthew19
Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 224
Views: 111036

Re: BTC in the PP

Time value of money is a fiat concept. It does not exist as a law of nature….only in a fiat economy. In all honesty I’m not against the fiat economy….to me, hold debt in fiat and wealth in BTC. It’s the perfect recipe! Time value of money is a human fact and has nothing to do with fiat, its directl...
by Matthew19
Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HB spotted on 4chan
Replies: 4
Views: 2174

Re: HB spotted on 4chan

https://i.imgur.com/9PXJuPh.jpeg Also, Doug Casey mentioned HB in a discussion with Rick Rule this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMO603IAmN8&t=1235s I first heard about the PP from Rick Rule. It was a live interview and someone asked his thoughts. He said he liked it and I instantly researc...
by Matthew19
Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Guess which asset class has performed best during the past month?
Replies: 10
Views: 4066

Re: Guess which asset class has performed best during the past month?

pp4me wrote:
Fri Jun 18, 2021 4:04 pm
I think that was around 20 years ago
Exactly. Best Laid Investments book by Harry says the same thing. Nobody knows!
by Matthew19
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)
Replies: 22
Views: 6336

Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)

I just Inherited an IRA. Fidelity is where the transfer took place, and I’ve had 3 attempts at talking with someone in their ira tax department with no success. Wait times for anyone with knowledge are huge. My concern isn’t the customer service, but that it’s a symptom of poor health fir the compan...
by Matthew19
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 178
Views: 54953

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:39 pm
Here is a nice bitcoin log price chart to match up with the previous one.
Dude, you're a gem. Keep going.

The market is speaking, and it's saying Bitcoin.
by Matthew19
Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Adding new funds - advanced
Replies: 7
Views: 2917

Adding new funds - advanced

I remember some back testing suggesting that adding funds equally in dollars rather than to the lagging asset first seemed to have better returns.

I would have hit a rebalancing band in March/April lows had I been doing that.

Is this an ok approach, and can anyone point me to the proof?