AnotherSwede wrote:How horrible would a return to 5-10% interest rate be? What would happen to pension funds, real estate prices?

I suppose pensions would have to be fully funded by tax money.

5-10% ?
As of right now, the world's financial system would pretty much implode entirely.

Selling "cheap" euros now and buying very "expensive" dollars in 1 go right now is also a major risk, that should have been done 2 years ago. To be honest, nothing looks good for euro investors atm. That may or may not be a bad trade if the Euro goes kaput which is what all thos...

It's pretty simple. Yields can only go so far negative, at a certain point it becomes cheaper to stack piles of cash and/or use gold. So there is a floor. Efforts to prevent that, such as making cash illegal, should just make you run away like hell, and not think " well it should work because ...

This package appears to be much safer especially compared to a euro based PP. We are absolutely in unchartered waters, so we simply cannot backtest the permanent portfolio and assume it's normal behaviour will continue, especially not the euro PP. This has simply never happened before. I think you ...

I understand this immensely. But at 1% or lower long bonds provide little insurance. It would be better to greatly reduce duration as you suggest, or go to cash and look to just ride things out with the other assets. How do you figure that? The convexity will increase so that it's still capable of ...

AnotherSwede wrote:What if they continue lowering yield by .2-.3% each year? More and more negative.

Stock valuations will continue becoming more and more insane.

Cash banned, if deemed necessary, but probably not.

Then you would be totally crazy to stay invested in euro paper.

buddtholomew wrote:

dutchtraffic wrote:

MachineGhost wrote:
You're not in bonds for the yield, but capital gains.

Yes, but the lower the yield, the less potential capital gains left.

Rates can and have gone negative.
Capital gains are not capped when bonds reach zero.

Sure, It's just not very likely to see rates at -8%....

Again I am starting to think more and more about a global portfolio to try and get through this total madness. The percentage figures are pretty much pulled out of my *** so they would probably change. 10% Short term govt. bonds/cash in local currency - iShares Euro Government Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF /...

You americans have nothing to complain still ;) The euro version of TLT (https://www.ishares.com/nl/particuliere-belegger/nl/producten/251775/ishares-ebrexx-government-germany-105yr-ucits-etf-de-fund) is yielding 0.35% ..... I am not fully invested yet and i need to invest quite a lot of euros........

"the german 20year etf is yielding 0.35%" Is the US rate higher because of expected inflation? ie the real rates for safe 1st world countries should be the same? (equilibrate) None of the bond rates make any sense right now, as they are effectively set by the government (yeah yeah..), and...

MachineGhost wrote:You must avoid stocks and invest in other Prosperity assets or the PP is effectively broken.

I'm not sure what you mean?
I'm not avoiding stocks, i have a fully normal (EU) PP.

Dutch wealth tax is pretty bad, but you can get some 5 year cd's which yield about 0.8% real, so -0.4 after tax which is not too bad I guess in this environment. Net taxes are probably slightly lower as the first 20/40k are not taxed. Eurozone 30y bonds yield less than 5y cd's so they should probab...

I might just collar some dividend stocks for a super low risk approach to capture at least some yield, untill things normalize...if they ever will. (http://www.investireoggi.it/forums/attachments/gsstockstobonds148-1-pdf.86895/) This paper describes using a collar with put spreads, though I wouldn't...

I need to invest a rather substantial (for me) amount of money, I am partially invested in a euro PP, but just cannot get myself to fully invest in it, not when the german 20year etf is yielding 0.35%, that's just insanity, almost zero upside left, not to speak about stocks which are also at valuat...

I need to invest a rather substantial (for me) amount of money, I am partially invested in a euro PP, but just cannot get myself to fully invest in it, not when the german 20year etf is yielding 0.35%, that's just insanity, almost zero upside left, not to speak about stocks which are also at valuati...

You americans have nothing to complain still ;) The euro version of TLT (https://www.ishares.com/nl/particuliere-belegger/nl/producten/251775/ishares-ebrexx-government-germany-105yr-ucits-etf-de-fund) is yielding 0.35% ..... I am not fully invested yet and i need to invest quite a lot of euros.........

Is anyone selling covered calls on their ETF holdings? Some OTM calls with a delta of lets say 20 or 30 should get some cash flowing.

I think this could have tax implications for US holders, possibly making it less interesting (?)
However, this does not apply to some people (including myself).

I have an advisor through whom I access proprietary momentum strategies from Gary Antonacci and one other company. The key is... I own the securities, I can log into my account, which is run by a reputable third-part brokerage firm (FOLIO) and I see how many shares I own, and the values. The securi...

Pointedstick wrote:Is this a common problem in Portugal?

It's a problem everywhere.

*cough* mfglobal *cough*

Pretty horrible performance...?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds- ... 2015-03-26

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-h ... 2015-04-10

Gold is gold, but it doesn't offer the same protection when you combine it with non-US assets. Gold reacts primarily to the US-dollar. So a non-US PP could still be a good and diversified portfolio, it won't offer the 'bulletproof protection'. Gold offers protection to anyone on this planet, you ca...

Gold was up in euros. Gold has nothing to do with whatever fiat currency. EUR just dropped. Gold wasn't really moving anywhere. Also, USD was up in EUR pretty much the same as gold if not even more. You could have held USD instead of gold and have the same result. From what I understand, according ...

Yes, it's probably not good to have US PP in Europe, but I'd rather have something like 40% intermediate local govnmt bonds 50% total world market and 10% gold than EU PP. Most of the companies in whatever index are multinationals operating all over the world, so a european index is hardly euro-onl...