My criterion was: how much can I tolerate losing, emotionally, if interest rates were to rise? That's why I chose that duration. It's my pain threshold. Through the long bond fluctuations I have not had much discomfort, and on a point-forward basis, 4 year bonds are in the meaty, juicy part of the ...

FYI, this is where I am now: 10% cash (90 day T-Bills, Ally Bank) 10% gold 10% TIPS (I put I-Bonds in the TIPS bucket) 25% core bonds with 4 year duration (Treasuries, Total Bond Market, Short Term High Quality Corporates - no junk, no EM, no preferreds) 45% GEM This is sleep well at night portfoli...

Nice summary, Ochotona! Thanks for your work!

ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:57 pm Marilyn Cohen, "The Little Bond e-Book"

Nice! Currently free for Kindle.

Thank you. Forgot to mention that I am with Schwab. Will check their fees. Selling Treasuries can be a bit complicated and it depends on where you're holding them. Treasury Direct: you can't sell them on the site. You have to transfer them to a brokerage account and then sell. I've never tried to do...

Hi,

I am still learning how to play with bonds. Am I correct in assuming that selling them is as easy as buying? I will keep the earnings for the period of holding them, right?

Thanks,

See "Treasury Bond Buying Tutorial," the first thread under "Bonds" or: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1670 I've read that guide a couple of months ago along with the FAQ. After that I purchased my first bond with Schwab. What would you recomme...

jhogue wrote: ↑Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:40 pm See "Treasury Bond Buying Tutorial," the first thread under "Bonds"

or:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1670

Thank you. Will look at it.

Talk to someone else at Schwab. I buy both LTTs and STTs through my Fidelity brokerage account. Fidelity's minimum bond purchase is $1,000. The Bond Desk will talk to you over the phone if you have questions. I think Vanguard has roughly the same deal. Even though Treasury bonds are liquid and can ...

Here's the actual page where bond advice is posted: https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/section/bond-insights I used to own only ETFs, but now I'm buying individual bonds and holding them to maturity. Short-term Treasuries and high quality corporates. It has been a good experience. Appr...

I follow Kathy Jones' advice. She is the bond strategist at Schwab. She advised a long time ago to go to 3-5 year durations. Now she's thinking about adding more duration. Follow her @kathyjones on Twitter. Great! Thanks for the reference. When I talked to Schwab about treasuries and ask for an adv...

No change to the portfolio for July 2018. Still 100% in S&P 500 stocks. My cautious 45% GEM, 10% gold, 20% cash, 25% bond (duration 4 years) portfolio is up 1% for the year. Hi, What guides you when you are picking bonds? Some prefer short term, 6m to a year, some long-term, 10 years. Somewhat ...

I see. Would you count May as month one for your approach?

Also, would it not be a more conservative approach? Wait longer and for more confirmations?

Hi,

After April, the holdings remain at 50% IVV/50% IAU, though VBR got dangerously close to IVV. Hence, a couple of questions. The strategy stays with IVV until there is even 0.01 % difference? Have you considered the situation when they break even?

ochotona wrote: ↑Tue May 29, 2018 1:35 pm FAGIX data is at Morningstar, Stockcharts, Fidelity of course. It's a Fidelity mutual fund.

I was wondering about that. If you look at its Asset Allocation, then it FAGIX is only 17-18% in US stocks, the most (almost 70%) is in bonds.

Thank you! A great composition! Where do you look up FAGIX signals? Did a simple backtest. Probably not doing it right. Got a CAGR of over 8%. How do you set it up? Thanks! https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=6&startYear=1985&a...

Did a simple backtest. Probably not doing it right. Got a CAGR of over 8%. How do you set it up? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=6&startYear=1985&endYear=2018&initialAmount=10000&symbols=FAGIX%2C+SWPPX&singl...

ochotona wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:41 pm For the benefit of new readers:

http://gemsignals.blogspot.com/2018/05/ ... ap-of.html

Nice summary!

D1984 wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 2:01 am
I am trying to backtest GEM to see how it would've done in the rising rate period of 1963 to early 1970. ...

Hi,

Please let us know about your findings.

with 91% of companies reporting earnings for 1st quarter , they are up 26% over last year . Hi, Where can one find these statistics? Also, is there a way to track hit-or-miss of forecast on earnings? In other words, when they forecast earnings of a company, is there statistics whether they hit or m...

An indicator of some sort is even sweeter! Let the guy know we are ears around here

Is the market getting hot again?

Gut feelings are welcome

[quote="InsuranceGuy"][/quote]

Hi,

Before volatility calculations, the equation remains 50% IVV/50% IAU. Right?

No change to the portfolio for May 2018. Still in 81% SCHF + 19% SCHE, or 100% in VEU. When you get a chance, can you please look up CAGR and other statistics of your mix of GEM+HBPP. Thanks! 55% gem, 45% core Core = 22% cash, 78% bonds From 1999-2017 7% cagr, max drawdown -8.71%, Sortino 1.38 No g...

ochotona wrote:No change to the portfolio for May 2018. Still in 81% SCHF + 19% SCHE, or 100% in VEU.

When you get a chance, can you please look up CAGR and other statistics of your mix of GEM+HBPP. Thanks!