Search found 3354 matches
- Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: How does Gold function in a non-US PP
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4847
Re: How does Gold function in a non-US PP
How about Icelander Heida Reed? (Born Heiða Rún Sigurðardóttir, Actress in Poldark) WOW
- Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:26 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Re: Bond Dual Momentum
Did Antonacci mean many narrow industry segments or a few broad sectors? Lots of people conflate the two terms. I've had success with horse racing many narrow industry segments (around 15% CAGR since 1990) as well as just using absolute momentum on the few broad sectors (about 2x outperformance vs ...
- Sun Sep 25, 2016 11:24 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Re: Bond Dual Momentum
While I agree that absolute makes more sense than relative, I think there is something in putting more weight in asset classes with higher momentum velocity as is done in relative momentum. Sure, Antonacci dual mometum GEM is placing a 100% bet on any one of three asset classes at a time (and gold ...
- Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:02 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Re: Bond Dual Momentum
The Schwab 1000 fund SNXFX goes back a few more years. If you play Absolute Momentum on it, this is what you get from 1994 onward. The CAGR for HBPP for comparison was 6.45%. That's 2.76x the wealth. http://i779.photobucket.com/albums/yy76/kf5nd/Screenshot%20from%202016-09-24%2018-00-18_zpspcqrgmmr....
- Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:50 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Re: Bond Dual Momentum
You guys are fun to play with! There's more to "transaction costs" than just commissions and taxes. The bid-ask on those three gigantic ETFs is miniscule, if you don't try to trade on a TEOTWAWKI day. Timing portfolio: Antonacci-style Dual Momentum on Schwab SWPPX (SP500), SWISX (Internat...
- Sat Sep 24, 2016 2:09 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Re: Bond Dual Momentum
I am interested in knowing more of what you are doing as there aren't a lot of practitioners out using real money doing this that I come across. Plus, I agree that it's very interesting to watch the "horse race" and observe what performs the best and for how long. I'm a little behind you ...
- Sat Sep 24, 2016 2:04 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Re: Bond Dual Momentum
Well funds aside what asset classes do you consider for your 75% then? You mention GEM, does that mean you use the top asset class for the whole 75% equities then? I am interested in knowing more of what you are doing as there aren't a lot of practitioners out using real money doing this that I com...
- Sat Sep 24, 2016 9:21 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Re: Bond Dual Momentum
Right, it's all confusing out of context. Gary Antonacci 's Dual Momentum book explains how you can use momentum to improve portfolio performance. I am 75% stocks, 25% bonds, gunning for retirement in 9 years. Using absolute monentum to ditch stocks as we enter a bear market lets me carry more stoc...
- Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:17 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Re: Bond Dual Momentum
Right, it's all confusing out of context. Gary Antonacci 's Dual Momentum book explains how you can use momentum to improve portfolio performance. I am 75% stocks, 25% bonds, gunning for retirement in 9 years. Using absolute monentum to ditch stocks as we enter a bear market lets me carry more stock...
- Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:58 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bond Dual Momentum
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17755
Bond Dual Momentum
I almost missed it, but TIPS (SCHP) are now ahead of Aggregate Bonds (SCHZ) and Intermediate US Treasuries (SCHR) on a 1-year momentum basis! Hmmm...
- Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:25 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Market cap weighting vs other methods
- Replies: 16
- Views: 15365
Re: Market cap weighting vs other methods
FYI, here is the document which governs the Research Affiliates / FTSE Russell Funamental Indices: http://www.ftse.com/products/downloads/FTSE_RAFI_Index_Series_Rules.pdf?969 Page 15, is where it all starts: "4.4 The review of the FTSE RAFI Index Series and the calculation of the fundamental we...
- Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:13 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Market cap weighting vs other methods
- Replies: 16
- Views: 15365
Re: Market cap weighting vs other methods
RSP Guggenheim Equal Weight sounds good to me. I think I can get it commission-free.
- Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:22 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Market cap weighting vs other methods
- Replies: 16
- Views: 15365
Re: Market cap weighting vs other methods
I agree smart beta fees will wipe out any alleged extra returns. That said, the large-cap Schwab alternative weighted ETF FNDX is 0.32% expense ratio, which is not horrible. Thats lower than average. How has the performance been vs S&P500? WORSE. Since January 2014, 8.42% CAGR for VOO, vs. 6.84...
- Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:01 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Market cap weighting vs other methods
- Replies: 16
- Views: 15365
Re: Market cap weighting vs other methods
I agree smart beta fees will wipe out any alleged extra returns. That said, the large-cap Schwab alternative weighted ETF FNDX is 0.32% expense ratio, which is not horrible.
- Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:33 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Market cap weighting vs other methods
- Replies: 16
- Views: 15365
Re: Market cap weighting vs other methods
The thumbnail sketch answer is that as the major stocks like Apple, Facebook, Nike, Google (FANG) get more and more valuable, and take up more and more of the market-cap index, they also all get closer and closer to being fully valued, and their forward-looking returns diminish. The market-cap index...
- Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:35 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought
- Replies: 26
- Views: 13109
Re: Dual Momentum on equities could whipsaw soon, opinions sought
The AlphaArchitect guys have licensed Enhanced Global Equities Momentum (E-GEM) from Gary Antonacci. That's the proprietary version of the Dual Momentum allocation described in the book. I am moving my IRA over from another Gary-affiliated advisor, which is a little sad and disruptive. :-\ It's hard...
- Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:16 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Miners and explorers bottomed? or another head fake?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 12292
Re: Miners and explorers bottomed? or another head fake?
I have some mad money that is falling into my hands... $100 - $120 per month. I'm going to try trend-following on a gold fund like TGLDX Tocqueville Gold Fund, mostly so I don't have to pay the collectibles capital gains tax.
- Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:21 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Marijuana Legalization
- Replies: 13
- Views: 6627
Re: Marijuana Legalization
I am sure many folks must grown their own plants to lower the cost.
- Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:17 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Hand Holding
- Replies: 60
- Views: 23729
Re: Hand Holding
Put in limit orders for the prices you want to pay, then see if Christmas comes early
- Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:38 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Market cap weighting vs other methods
- Replies: 16
- Views: 15365
Re: Market cap weighting vs other methods
I am at Schwab, they have an Arnott affiliated small family of six ETFs. FNDX FNDB FNDF FNDA FNDC FNDE are the symbols I believe.
- Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:10 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Market cap weighting vs other methods
- Replies: 16
- Views: 15365
Market cap weighting vs other methods
I really learned quite a bit about the flaws of conventional market cap weighted funds like VTI from Episode 18 of Meb Faber's new podcast. Rob Arnott was the guest, and they had a long, deep discussion. I am now really thinking about just swapping out my stock ETFs with fundamental weighted ETFs.
- Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:38 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is The Big Crash Coming?
- Replies: 47
- Views: 21648
Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
The thread drift is amazing
- Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:59 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Where should I open new Roth IRA accounts
- Replies: 35
- Views: 15936
Re: Where should I open new Roth IRA accounts
Which are the best IRA companies if I use TLT for rebalancing? Shwab? Fidelity? Barrett explained that Fidelity is good for buying units of LTTs. I am thinking of leaving TD Ameritrade behind. I recently realized I can fund Roth IRAs with some of the proceeds from my home sale. As I have read, hold...
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:19 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Question on LTB and cash
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4792
Re: Question on LTB and cash
Interesting idea, diluting EDV with or short-term Treasuries. Mixing 57% EDV and 43% SCHO pretty much matches the performance of TLO. So you could take your Bonds allocation down to 14%.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:43 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: "Sully" movie
- Replies: 2
- Views: 1797
"Sully" movie
I really enjoyed this flick. Man, those NTSB guys were pri**s. They really tied the release of this film in well with the 15th anniversary of 9/11, as you see US Air 1549 gliding past Manhattan skyscrapers it inevitably reminds you of 9/11.