Search found 165 matches

by mukramesh
Mon Jun 08, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
Replies: 60
Views: 20423

Re: Newbie implementing PP in India

@LC475: I understand what you are saying regarding Gold's 'world price' not necessarily being affected, however your Zimbabwe scenario showed that even a Zimbabwe-PP would have done somewhat better than any other Zimbabwe-only investment strategies due to holding gold. I'll have to think about what ...
by mukramesh
Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
Replies: 60
Views: 20423

Re: Newbie implementing PP in India

We have reason to think that gold won't work so great as an inflation hedge for India because the Indian rupee is not the reserve currency of the world, nor even a very major currency.  So if the rupee crashes, gold will not necessarily skyrocket much, if at all. Can you explain this? My understand...
by mukramesh
Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New PPer needs guidance.
Replies: 117
Views: 40547

Re: New PPer needs guidance.

At the risk of being accused of market timing, it may not be a bad idea to take the funds you've allocated for a Permanent Portfolio and ease in, perhaps over 3 or 4 quarters (in 33% or 25% increments). Of course it's a good idea to dollar cost average into a set of new investments, even if "T...
by mukramesh
Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New PPer needs guidance.
Replies: 117
Views: 40547

Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Would I do better just buying TLT? I wouldn't try to buy individual bonds in a 401(k) account.  It can probably be done, but TLT should work fine for now. I buy individual bonds directly in my Fidelity 401(k) through their brokerage window (BrokerageLink) commission free. It's actually quite easy a...
by mukramesh
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Robin Hood App
Replies: 16
Views: 9245

Re: Robin Hood App

I use it and I know a few others who do as well. Here's my two second review: Upside: Free Trades :) Each app update adds new features (recently added Stop order types) Downside: Very low on features. All researching of instruments should be done outside of the app. Only use the app for the purchase...
by mukramesh
Fri May 15, 2015 6:09 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash Drag
Replies: 19
Views: 15551

Re: Cash Drag

I don't remember who posted it, but somebody in this forum said something I found very insightful regarding the value of cash. Cash doesn't just help reduce portfolio volatility, but it really helps with life volatility (their phrase, not mine). Consider the financial crash in 2008. Someone investin...
by mukramesh
Thu Apr 09, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)
Replies: 11
Views: 7283

Re: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)

For everyone's information these are the approximate duration values given by Fidelity for bonds of different maturity: 20yrs- 14.6 25yrs- 16.4 30yrs- 20.8 Obviously there is more 'juice' (volatility) in the longer maturity bonds. But that still doesn't really help us determine what is best for the ...
by mukramesh
Wed Apr 08, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)
Replies: 11
Views: 7283

Re: Sell 25 buy 30 yrs bonds (no tax on cap gains)

My Fidelity 401k and Vanguard Roth IRA have commission free trading for US Treasuries. I'm also curious if keeping the maturity between 25-30 years makes any difference vs. 20-30.
by mukramesh
Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Explain please
Replies: 4
Views: 3152

Re: Explain please

2nd Grade explanation: You buy a toy for $5. A little while later, the toy is worth $10 so you decide to sell it. You have made $5 in profit which you can now use to buy other toys.

Now realize toys = gold and profit = capital appreciation

Hope that helps :)
by mukramesh
Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 40098

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

Just a heads up, according to peaktotrough, the PP has only had a DD above 10% six times since 1972. So if you are waiting for the PP to crash before buying in, you might have to wait a while. Compared to most conventional investing strategies, losing a few % here and there is not really a big deal....
by mukramesh
Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 40098

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

This statement confuses me. How can you think Stocks are a bad investment because they have kept going up AND Gold is a bad investment because it has kept going down? For stock, since it's been going straight up for 5 years since the crash (look at the charts) without a 10% correction, which is tot...
by mukramesh
Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 101
Views: 255219

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

You probably have 'Reinvest Div/Int' set to NO. All dividends get put into Cash (T-Bills) and then get added to your total returns.
by mukramesh
Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 40098

Re: How Are You Doing In PP?

I have been watching the HBPP portfolio for over 6 months because I am still not convinced due to the current environment.  stock is sky high - waiting to dive back down to earth, back to dotcom bubble territory, not more than 10% correction over 5 years ... gold - is still on the slippery slope, h...
by mukramesh
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Would The PP Perform In A Global Depression?
Replies: 24
Views: 13129

Re: How Would The PP Perform In A Global Depression?

If the US government defaults on it's debt, wouldn't that make the dollar worthless? I'd assume if the entity that can print it's own money defaults, corporate bonds would fair much worse. Besides, if the US government defaults, dollar goes down (hyperinflation), wouldn't gold (priced in dollars) sa...
by mukramesh
Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:02 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why not Berkshire Hathaway?
Replies: 11
Views: 9890

Re: Why not Berkshire Hathaway?

Why use Berkshire Hathaway? In your opinion, what advantage is there in using it over a general stock index for the PP?
by mukramesh
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:49 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Spreadsheet/GoogleFinance or other automated I-Bond and EE-bondprice calculator?
Replies: 10
Views: 10386

Re: Spreadsheet/GoogleFinance or other automated I-Bond and EE-bondprice calculator?

I think there is a problem with Google Spreasheet in general. Both importhtml() and =GOOGLEFINANCE(xxx, "price") calls have been pretty inconsistent for me.

Not sure there's anything we can do about it.
by mukramesh
Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Short Term Ladder, yield question
Replies: 0
Views: 2118

Short Term Ladder, yield question

I am currently using a directly held short term treasury ladder (maturity 1-3 years) for a portion of my cash. When purchasing new treasuries, once I choose the maturity date, should I just try to pick the one with the highest 'Ask Yield to Worst'? For example, for treasuries maturing on 11/30/2016,...
by mukramesh
Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:09 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Spreadsheet/GoogleFinance or other automated I-Bond and EE-bondprice calculator?
Replies: 10
Views: 10386

Re: Spreadsheet/GoogleFinance or other automated I-Bond and EE-bondprice calculator?

You're right, it does appear to be intermittent; I just reloaded my spreadsheet and it is working correctly (currently using "http://"). Maybe it's not a huge issue, I've only had it happen during the past few days.

Thanks fnord!
by mukramesh
Tue Dec 23, 2014 11:42 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Spreadsheet/GoogleFinance or other automated I-Bond and EE-bondprice calculator?
Replies: 10
Views: 10386

Re: Spreadsheet/GoogleFinance or other automated I-Bond and EE-bondprice calculator?

Hi All, I have been using the code in fnord123's post to track my I-Bonds in Google Spreasheets. This has been working fine, but in the past couple days, it has stopped working and just returns #VALUE (error: The data could not be retrieved. Please check the URL.) Is anyone else having the same issu...
by mukramesh
Mon Dec 22, 2014 4:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Throwing in the Towel because Harry is Right!!!
Replies: 45
Views: 20304

Re: Throwing in the Towel because Harry is Right!!!

I know I am a new member here and I spend more time reading the posts than I do commenting, but I'd also be interested to see the data with the 25% Max DD for the PP. I chose the PP due to it's low overall volatility and think this information would be interesting. I know LC475 is being a bit rough,...
by mukramesh
Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?
Replies: 47
Views: 21705

Re: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?

Okay, that sounds reasonable to me since we agree that a stock tilt is a bet on prosperity :) If someone doesn't mind making that bet and also can guarantee that they won't have to touch the money for a sufficiently long time (this is a loaded statement since there could be a multi-decade stock mark...
by mukramesh
Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?
Replies: 47
Views: 21705

Re: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?

PointedStick, I get what you're saying that the PP will lag the Stock Market during times of prosperity. But to say that over a long time horizon, one would be better off putting more money in stocks is the equivalent of saying that one should expect prosperity in the long term. If that is the case,...
by mukramesh
Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can I allow my gold assets to lag?
Replies: 9
Views: 5809

Re: Can I allow my gold assets to lag?

My solution has been to add new funds to the 'Cash' bucket. Whenever I hit a rebalancing band (i.e. Cash reaches 35% of the total PP size), I use the excess cash to purchase the other asset (Stocks, Bonds, Gold). This keeps transactions down to only a few times per year and will become less frequent...
by mukramesh
Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?
Replies: 47
Views: 21705

Re: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?

I don't understand the responses saying that a 'stock heavy' portfolio is appropriate for anyone in the accumulation phase (young investors). Hasn't the PP historically done about as well as a 100% stock portfolio with significantly lower volatility and much smaller drawdowns? In what way would a st...
by mukramesh
Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:51 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Making new PP. Have questions on buying Treasury Bills/Notes
Replies: 24
Views: 16419

Re: Making new PP. Have questions on buying Treasury Bills/Notes

Thanks for your help everybody! I have (pretty much) built my PP. I have ordered half of the gold portion and will wait to receive it before ordering the second half. Cash is in an I-Bond; I will put the rest in short-term treasuries once I'm done with my gold purchases. Stock portion is invested in...