I use the Flexible Retirement Planner. It's great. The default inflation rate is 3%. The current 5, 10, 20, and 30 year TIPS breakeven inflation rates are all below 3%. However... I just have a feeling I might just get screwed in the end by inflation. I'm tempted to bump it up to 3.5% as a hedge. An...

Yes, B&H you got right. IEF is the 7-10 year US Treasury ETF. Some HBPP users like to use IEF instead of Cash + TLT... the one ETF "bullet". The point I'm making in this post is this Predicting US Treasury Returns is a bullet that doesn't misbehave in a rising interest rate environment...

https://allocatesmartly.com/predicting-us-treasury-returns/ This seems to solve the "what if long bond interest rates keep going up from here?" It trades once a month between IEF and T-Bills. Sometimes it's very cashy, sometimes it's very bondy. It's down like -2% from Aug 2020... B&H ...

Is the idea behind the Permanent Portfolio and Golden Butterfly only needing domestic US stocks (for US investors) that the gold provides sufficient hedging against foreign exchange movements? US companies investment overseas, overseas companies invest in the US. You'd think it would all be the same...

From Reddit - not my experience, fortunately. "Solo FidFolios places market orders {Ochotona - not limit orders which can be bad at times}. Also, when you rebalance they sell whatever needs sold first and they wait two business days for the cash to resettle before purchasing anything. I also fo...

Damn...all in on foreign equities. Hope it works out! (ps, any reason you went small cap foreign instead of foreign SCV ?) This portfolio is just a really little part of my holdings at present. I'm going to watch it for 2-3 years then decide if I should grow it. EM Value and Small Cap Ex-US are the...

I'd get on the KLM bird one last time and fly first class to the Netherlands and get it done there. To heck with Murican laws.

For your entertainment, I present - The GMO Butterfly 1/5 to each of these ETFs Foreign Small Cap SCHC EM Value AVES Long Term Treasuries SCHQ Gold SGOL, or hold physical Cash SGOV, or hold I-Bonds, T-Bills, bank deposits I've started to DCA into this. For those of you who don't know GMO, here is a ...

Why are long bonds getting hit today? It makes no sense, if there are recession fears, long yields should soften.

I think if I-Bonds rates keep going down, I'll stop buying them. I have 5% of my portfolio in them, it's getting be be enough I think. I don't mind receiving my tax refund as I-Bonds.

The article is NOT from a commercial webpage from advisors. The magazine is aimed at articles to Financial Advisors for them to better assist their clients. You proved my point, Vinny. Financial Advisors are in business, and articles for them "to better assist their clients" are by defini...

Go to allocatesmartly and send them an email... I don't have the answers to those questions.

Vinny, Your article is from a commercial webpage from advisors - the people who would benefit from the sale of annuities. That's not a resource written for the betterment of consumers. Hasn't it been shown that indexed annuities are a rip-off... they give you some of the index upside, keep all of th...

Somewhat related: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-one-true-free-lunch-for-investors-69763.html?section=2 The One True Free Lunch For Investors "In the best-case scenarios, efficient asset location can moderately boost returns each year, although estimates vary. Rowling says some studies show a...

Xan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:07 am SCHQ at 0.03% is hard to beat.

SCHQ is beating TLT on a total return basis. Last time I looked the SCHQ history was too short to see that, now it's obvious on Stockcharts / PerfCharts.

🚧 split off Moonshots thread \ DS 🚧 Make this your moonshot. I have 10% of my portfolio going to this. Look at how low the drawdown is, backtested 50 years. Look at the Sharpe / Sortino ratios. https://allocatesmartly.com/bold-asset-allocation/ Warning - seriously not tax efficient, lots of trading ...

The stocks would transfer fine, sure, but its just gonna look like a pile of stocks to the receiving broker. Direct indexing is really a method to keep you from being able to churn out to another broker, or at least thats my fear. That's not it at all. The point of DI is that even when an index is ...

The Schwab minimum for this is $100k. The Fidelity minimum is $4. The Fidelity tax loss harvesting, net of fees and taxes , on average, going back more than a decade, gets you 100 basis points added performance on top of the S&P500. That's nothing to sneer at. But 2022 was not an average year......

It seems intriguing. However, when you go here: https://betterbuyandhold.com/our-origin-story/ And, the first and third URLs on the bottom of page go to nowhere ... does that make you question at all the organization's competence? No, not really. The publisher of the 3rd URL links moved the documen...

Better Buy and Hold will design a portfolio very very close to the GB if you select the GB assets and the criterion "build a portfolio that has never lost more than 10% in 36 months". And it does better if you add in EM, but not if you add in EM and EAFE! If you round it off, you get somet...

Tyler, I have a question I've been meaning to ask. Is there an argument to be made for global equities in the GB? 40% VT? I know it wouldn't back-test very well, because International equities have been taken out behind the shed and butchered for a long time, but you... "Buy low sell high"...

We have socialism in the USA, it's for the rich. You privatize the gains, and socialize the risk and losses. Bail-outs, bail-ins, employers not paying a living wage and then their full-time workers needing public assistance, businesses committing billions in COVID relief fraud, railroads being dereg...

Ocho, you just use the momentum strategy in tax-deferred and Roth accounts, right? Otherwise, assuming that losses are not regularly offsetting gains, you would end up paying more taxes due to lots of transactions. Exactly, only in tax-deferred or tax-free accounts! These are about 2/3 or 3/4 of my...

DIY Tactical Bond

Allocate to the top 3 ETFs with 6 month performance greater than SGOV. Do not allocate to anything which performs more poorly than SGOV. Allocate 1, 2 or 3 of the slices to SGOV if needed.

Antonacci GEM DIY instructions: EVALUATE AND TRADE ONLY ON THE LAST TRADING DAY OF THE MONTH... 2:30-3:30 PM EASTERN TIME IS FINE 1. Risk on or off? Look at SPY return over the past year relative to risk free SGOV (better than the older BIL). Right-click on time bar, set scale to Past Year instead o...