Search found 3354 matches
- Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:33 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
- Replies: 46
- Views: 50778
Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
I have some spending needs coming in 2026-2027, so I have been selling the I-Bonds with interest rates less than 4% and buying Treasuries maturing in 2026-2027 and locking in a bit more than 4%. Are those Treasuries tax-sheltered or not? No, they are exposed to taxes. It's a bit complicated. My per...
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 7:19 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787785
Re: The GOLD scream room
Long term... I bought gold 2015-2018 at a good price, but I'm giving it until 2030, if no serious step above the past ATHs by then I'm out. Fifteen years is long enough. It will be time for digitization, simplification and streamlining for my heirs and future caregivers to take precedence. It doesn'...
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 5:01 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
- Replies: 46
- Views: 50778
Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
I have some spending needs coming in 2026-2027, so I have been selling the I-Bonds with interest rates less than 4% and buying Treasuries maturing in 2026-2027 and locking in a bit more than 4%.
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:12 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787785
Re: The GOLD scream room
In nominal dollar terms the price of gold stepped up during the 1970's, 1980/1990 were a plateau, 2000's were a step (dot com bubble, financial crisis), 2010's were a plateau, excepting a relatively small 2020 step (Covid) as part of that. A nice feature with that is if you blend stocks with gold t...
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 11:26 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787785
Re: The GOLD scream room
So when does gold catch a bid? Dow is down -321 right now, 10 year interest rates are down, US Dollar is down, why is gold also down?
- Tue Aug 08, 2023 11:23 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: WSB-style YOLO
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2336
Re: WSB-style YOLO
On the chance Jeremy Grantham will be right sometime, maybe Emerging Markets Value? Like ETF AVES? Or just EM... VWO. That's mainstream risky, or old person risky, or something.
- Sun Jul 16, 2023 6:56 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
- Replies: 33
- Views: 19064
Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
I hate to give up the tax deferred features, the no RMD, paying imputed income on TIPs. I guess it's really a bet on inflation and an individual's tax payment experience in the future... Well, not an urgent question. Maybe I just put an upper limit on what % of the portfolio to ibonds and maintain i...
- Sat Jul 15, 2023 9:25 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
- Replies: 33
- Views: 19064
Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
What's the way to think about using I-Bonds if the yield dips significantly below T-Bills?
- Thu Jun 29, 2023 2:15 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Affirmative action ruling
- Replies: 11
- Views: 2277
Affirmative action ruling
Chinese-Americans have known for decades that our numbers were being suppressed at many universities because, "oops, too many Chinese". It's just exactly what happened to Jews in the early 20th century when the Ivies thought there were "too many Jews" and severly limited Jewish e...
- Mon Jun 12, 2023 12:23 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: When will indexing blow up?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 48345
Re: When will indexing blow up?
Just yesterday I was comparing iShares US Minimum Volatility Factor ETF to SPY, and they track well until all of the COVID money printing, at which point SPY stands on its tail. It just seems to me that S&P500 is just a stupid bet on something, and someday SPY is going to catch-down to USMV, and...
- Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:39 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
- Replies: 28
- Views: 11576
Re: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
I won't use TIPS because my tax-advantaged space is all used up by tactical asset allocation and the phantom income thing is nonsense. I might use them if losses weren't capped to $3000 in a tax year, but because they are gated, no.
- Wed May 03, 2023 12:54 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Is Ruth's Chris Steak Houses really worth $715 million?
- Replies: 2
- Views: 904
Is Ruth's Chris Steak Houses really worth $715 million?
Darden just bought them for $715 million. I like Ruth's Chris, but I'm not understanding this one.
- Mon May 01, 2023 7:05 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: What inflation rate do you use for retirement planning?
- Replies: 2
- Views: 803
What inflation rate do you use for retirement planning?
I use the Flexible Retirement Planner. It's great. The default inflation rate is 3%. The current 5, 10, 20, and 30 year TIPS breakeven inflation rates are all below 3%. However... I just have a feeling I might just get screwed in the end by inflation. I'm tempted to bump it up to 3.5% as a hedge. An...
- Fri Apr 28, 2023 7:48 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1770
Re: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
Yes, B&H you got right. IEF is the 7-10 year US Treasury ETF. Some HBPP users like to use IEF instead of Cash + TLT... the one ETF "bullet". The point I'm making in this post is this Predicting US Treasury Returns is a bullet that doesn't misbehave in a rising interest rate environment...
- Fri Apr 28, 2023 10:07 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1770
Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
https://allocatesmartly.com/predicting-us-treasury-returns/ This seems to solve the "what if long bond interest rates keep going up from here?" It trades once a month between IEF and T-Bills. Sometimes it's very cashy, sometimes it's very bondy. It's down like -2% from Aug 2020... B&H ...
- Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:46 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: International stocks?
- Replies: 42
- Views: 71009
Re: International stocks?
Is the idea behind the Permanent Portfolio and Golden Butterfly only needing domestic US stocks (for US investors) that the gold provides sufficient hedging against foreign exchange movements? US companies investment overseas, overseas companies invest in the US. You'd think it would all be the same...
- Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:13 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Don't use Fidelity Solo FidFolios to manage an ETF HBPP
- Replies: 2
- Views: 1654
Don't use Fidelity Solo FidFolios to manage an ETF HBPP
From Reddit - not my experience, fortunately. "Solo FidFolios places market orders {Ochotona - not limit orders which can be bad at times}. Also, when you rebalance they sell whatever needs sold first and they wait two business days for the cash to resettle before purchasing anything. I also fo...
- Sun Apr 16, 2023 8:15 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: in depth review of golden butterfly
- Replies: 21
- Views: 16395
Re: in depth review of golden butterfly
Damn...all in on foreign equities. Hope it works out! (ps, any reason you went small cap foreign instead of foreign SCV ?) This portfolio is just a really little part of my holdings at present. I'm going to watch it for 2-3 years then decide if I should grow it. EM Value and Small Cap Ex-US are the...
- Fri Apr 14, 2023 5:16 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: How much to save for retirement
- Replies: 101
- Views: 98885
Re: How much to save for retirement
I'd get on the KLM bird one last time and fly first class to the Netherlands and get it done there. To heck with Murican laws.
- Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:14 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: in depth review of golden butterfly
- Replies: 21
- Views: 16395
Re: in depth review of golden butterfly
For your entertainment, I present - The GMO Butterfly 1/5 to each of these ETFs Foreign Small Cap SCHC EM Value AVES Long Term Treasuries SCHQ Gold SGOL, or hold physical Cash SGOV, or hold I-Bonds, T-Bills, bank deposits I've started to DCA into this. For those of you who don't know GMO, here is a ...
- Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:57 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
- Replies: 40
- Views: 42161
Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Why are long bonds getting hit today? It makes no sense, if there are recession fears, long yields should soften.
- Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:56 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
- Replies: 46
- Views: 50778
Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
I think if I-Bonds rates keep going down, I'll stop buying them. I have 5% of my portfolio in them, it's getting be be enough I think. I don't mind receiving my tax refund as I-Bonds.
- Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:54 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: How much to save for retirement
- Replies: 101
- Views: 98885
Re: How much to save for retirement
The article is NOT from a commercial webpage from advisors. The magazine is aimed at articles to Financial Advisors for them to better assist their clients. You proved my point, Vinny. Financial Advisors are in business, and articles for them "to better assist their clients" are by defini...
- Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:49 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1801
Re: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Go to allocatesmartly and send them an email... I don't have the answers to those questions.
- Sat Apr 08, 2023 9:20 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: How much to save for retirement
- Replies: 101
- Views: 98885
Re: How much to save for retirement
Vinny, Your article is from a commercial webpage from advisors - the people who would benefit from the sale of annuities. That's not a resource written for the betterment of consumers. Hasn't it been shown that indexed annuities are a rip-off... they give you some of the index upside, keep all of th...