I first learned about the Fama-French small-cap value advantage back in 2004.  This is how VBR, the small-cap value ETF, has done since then, compared to total stock market (VTI): http://i66.tinypic.com/k4az9u.jpg I know these dates are cherry-picked, but as long as I've been investing, SCV has not ...

Fun times over here on this thread.

"I came to learn about bonds and gold, but I stuck around for the discussion on orgies."

Gabe, I'll be picturing you like this from now on:

Obi200 http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BUV7C9A/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B00BUV7C9A&linkCode=as2&tag=obihatechn-20 Love that amazing little thing! Pair with Googlevoice number and for <$50 have free landline. No ongoing fees. Can ad...

I found a cool website: populationpyramid.net It lets you visualize the population pyramids of every country, at any year.  Looking at the current US graph, I can see the baby-boomers, but there is plenty of people coming up behind them, so perhaps the total number of buyers of stocks will not actua...

Thanks for the fast responses guys.  I will say that the situation has changed rather quickly.  In December, the 5-year was auctioned at 1.785%, making the decision to buy the treasury a no-brainer.  But losing about 0.5% in just over a month has altered the equation. Ah yes, the 3% 5-yr penfed CDs,...

I recommend about 60% in CD's or intermediate treasuries, about 30 percent equities, and a 10% slice of gold.  I have heard this 30:60:10 suggestion from you before, and I have filed it in my brain as 'the Desert portfolio'.  But do you offer your suggestion regardless of age?  In other words, shou...

I think they tied, because of the superdelegates all going to Big Mama.  When you factor all the superdelegates in, Bernie is so far behind, he basically has no chance to win, but at least maybe he can keep Hillary honest.

Dude that was awesome.  'Jackin with the Jergens', that always makes me chuckle.

Pfanni,
I find your comments extremely interesting and insightful.  I am in the US, where I only get part of the story about what is going on over there.  I really had no idea it was getting that bad for you all in Germany.  I hope you and your family can stay safe.

But if cash at everything from banks to Treasury Direct is yielding -1 to -2 (still better than owing other assets), wouldn't a 30 year TB of +1ish look pretty damn good? You are right, cash at -1% is no good.  That is when I will be be turning to the Nickel Plan.  A regular nickel weighs 5 grams, ...

TLT is at 132.xy by the way. What's the highest it has ever gone? 135-140? Google Finance shows that it made it up above 138 in the week of Jan 30, 2015. Also, what would TLT be at if the long bond rate were at 1%? This isn't perfect, but using these current inputs: TLT price 132, avg maturity 26.5...

So if yields on bonds went negative, you'd still own 50% bills, costing you even more to hold them? I don't know man, I'd think that there isn't really any point in owning negative yield assets. Why not just own gold and stocks at that point, and wait until yields get back above 0? In terms of the ...

It is interesting that people have different risk tolerance levels for bond yields, much like Bogleheads have different risk tolerance levels for stocks.  Some Bogleheads use 'age in bonds', or 'age-10' or just '60:40' stocks:bonds.  There is no right answer, it just depends on the individual.  Howe...

I predict a big 'ol blow-out, just like the great Super Bowls of the 80s when Elway was leading the Broncos:

Carolina 42
Denver 9

Damn that is funny.  She is such a jolly soul.

Watching the Democratic Debate right now from NH.  Thoughts so far: 1) I am sad that Martin O'Malley is gone, because it means that I have to hear Hillary 50% of the time instead of 33%. 2) When Hillary talks, I feel like she is always scolding and yelling.  Can't hear that for the next 4 years. 3) ...

Jeb coming out with some 11th hour incriminating photos of Rubio, reminds me of when the Gore campaign leaked the news that GWBush had an old DWI, just days before the 2000 election.  The Bushes might just have to do something like this to pull poor Jeb out of the trash bin.

Darn, looks like I missed part 1, hopefully I can catch it on the web at some point.  I did enjoy the 3rd season of Damages , which was inspired by the Madoff scandal.  It had some big name actors, Glenn Close, Lily Tomlin, Martin Short, Campbell Scott... Speaking of Billions, I've only seen the fir...

He would delete them himself periodically.  I can't remember why. I never understood why he would do that.  My main takeaway from his posts was that it is better to go with a rolling ladder of bonds at the steepest part of the yield curve, rather than the classic ST-LT bond barbell.  Makes sense to...

Ho Lee Cow! 261 pages, I haven't been following along, but have you guys figured out religion yet?  Is there an executive summary?

That's a nice succinct summary.  I still can't believe Fiorina hasn't dropped out yet.  The last remaining 'undercard' candidate.  Is she still holding rallies, and if so, what must that be like?  Are there more than 10 people present?  Are they giving out free HP schwag, like printer cartridges?

Jeb also needs to stop busting out the word 'caliphate' in every debate.  He even admits that he didn't know what that meant a year ago, and guess what, almost nobody listening to the debate knows what it means now.  Just makes him look like he's trying to show off his intellectual chops, and nobody...

Maybe there should be a Hall of Fame/Shame thread for remembering past PP forum members.  Gone but not forgotten: clive, kshartle, mathjak...

How much will we make when long bonds reach -1%? Well, I went ahead and updated my previous chart to include negative yields.  The red dot represents current market conditions in the US, 30-year bond yield ~ 2.5%, price 100.  If yield drops to -1%, then price is 222. http://i68.tinypic.com/xf53dc.p...

Checking back in with this thread...international bond yields have gotten even more crazy. Japan: 30-yr = 1.06%, with everything negative below 10 years. Swiss: 30-yr = 0.278%, everything negative below 15 years. Insane.  Still lots of upside for holders of US bonds, with the 30-yr at 2.66% and the ...