Live soft posted the following link over at Bogleheads.
http://www.able2pay.com/rebalancing.html
Quite different from PP, but interesting, esp for non-PPs.
Search found 655 matches
- Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:32 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New rebalance study
- Replies: 3
- Views: 3109
- Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:09 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Bonds vs Deflation
- Replies: 8
- Views: 4902
Re: Bonds vs Deflation
This real return. Deflation of 1% +1% to long term real rates. Short term rates 0-ish or less real (-1% to start, before fees.) Stocks probably drop (deferred purchases as items cheaper in the future; companies reduce prices and salaries; future earning projections down not up.) Existing debt, issu...
- Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:31 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Thoughts on Asset Price Inflation
- Replies: 6
- Views: 2851
Re: Thoughts on Asset Price Inflation
+1Pointedstick wrote: I'm 100% with you on asset price inflation being the politically-acceptable substitute for consumer goods price inflation. I don't know what the future holds either. Interesting times we live in.
- Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:41 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Momentum Butterfly portfolio
- Replies: 23
- Views: 11993
Re: Momentum Butterfly portfolio
After a year of passive investment using the Permanent Portfolio I frew tired of loosing my hard earned money. So in November I switched to an Absolute Momentum Portfolio and begun worrying about my money on a daily basis. When the market tanked at the beginning of the year I sold. The following da...
- Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:30 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 120
- Views: 43121
Re: Portfolio Charts
Have you thought of reporting the optimum for different start/end periods? Might highlight that there isn't a set optimum.... One set: All start 1972 End points: 82, 92, 2002, 2012, 2015 Other set: Start 72, 82, 92, 2002 End 2015 And then with your remaining copious free time, optimum at the...
- Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:26 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals
- Replies: 17
- Views: 10546
Re: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals
Wh did you pick trend following over moving averages? (Did link to a moving aberages study even.)
Why moving to cash? I played around a bit with moving averages at portfolio visualizer, and switching to int term treasures instead of cash helped.
What with ITT yielding what cash used to....
Why moving to cash? I played around a bit with moving averages at portfolio visualizer, and switching to int term treasures instead of cash helped.
What with ITT yielding what cash used to....
- Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:59 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: The Trouble With Bernie
- Replies: 26
- Views: 6563
Re: The Trouble With Bernie
Sanders definitely electable. I don't see congress shifting, so probably not too dramatic changes in laws.
Trump with a republican congress?
Trump with a republican congress?
- Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:57 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: study of 90-10 portfolios
- Replies: 13
- Views: 8873
Re: study of 90-10 portfolios
Bernstein talks about never being less than 25% stocks (or more than 75%.). What duration bonds / include a cash emergency fund? Around these here parts, the default for "Bonds" implies long duration treasuries.... All that being said, I'd go simple route and put into one of S&P 500, total IS stock,...
- Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:31 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
- Replies: 9
- Views: 7171
Re: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
My bad results were solely due to long bonds and gold. If I hadn't touched those, I'd have been flat for the year. My losers (rough order): Gold (-10ish) Small Cap Value (-5%ish) Total International TIPS Long Term Treasury Gainers: Total Bond Index US Large/Mid Cap index (Russell 1000) Short term B...
- Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:38 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 645270
Re: Stock scream room
I keep thinking how much more money everyone else will have....
... yeah, definitely losers too, but.....
... yeah, definitely losers too, but.....
- Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:57 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3689
- Views: 1656598
Re: The GOLD scream room
We want it to go to $500? Not me......
Staying at $1,000 sounds better.
Staying at $1,000 sounds better.
- Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:31 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Democratic discomfort on the taxes that would actually fund their ideas
- Replies: 30
- Views: 12136
Re: Democratic discomfort on the taxes that would actually fund their ideas
Since this thread is talking about the cost of health care... While it's been over 10 years, I recall our out of pocket cost was higher for the home birth than for a hospital birth....TennPaGa wrote: Congratulations on the new baby, PS!
Out of curiosity... Did you and your wife consider a home birth?
- Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:51 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Foreign Markets Take A Pounding
- Replies: 6
- Views: 5515
Re: Foreign Markets Take A Pounding
Get at least my one day of desired tracking error this year....
Even with 40-ish percent in stocks having 50-ish percent in gold/LTT/"cash" (short-term bond) helps on days like this.
Which in the scheme of things, isn't that big a change by itself.
Even with 40-ish percent in stocks having 50-ish percent in gold/LTT/"cash" (short-term bond) helps on days like this.
Which in the scheme of things, isn't that big a change by itself.
- Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:28 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Any Changes for the New Year?
- Replies: 27
- Views: 13417
Re: Any Changes for the New Year?
Pug, That's a very good question. In the end I think the major item for me is the lack of potential return going forward, possibly for decades, of short term treasuries/cash. So more than anything it is to separate out a rainy day cash portion and take the 25% that I currently have dedicated to c...
- Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:57 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Any Changes for the New Year?
- Replies: 27
- Views: 13417
Re: Any Changes for the New Year?
While small is a small percentage of total stock market, if in a tax advantages account, look at going with a large balanced fund (S&P 500, Wiltshire(?) 1000, ....) instead of total stock market to have more distinct large vs small.
- Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:38 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 120
- Views: 43121
Re: Portfolio Charts
I propose one mega SWR chart with all of the lazy portfolios on one chart. With the bars lined up from tallest to shortest, left-to-right. Sort based on the 30 year horizon (they might not sort the same way for all decades). Different colors for each portfolio, too. Ah -- now that's a good idea. I'...
- Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:23 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 120
- Views: 43121
Re: Portfolio Charts
Maybe this has been mentioned, but in the pre-defined portfolios, such as http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/merriman-ultimate/, the data includes CAGR, Average Return, and Standard Deviation, while the Pixel Chart doesn't (if the URL copying works -- https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?cid=946d7a...
- Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:52 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
- Replies: 14
- Views: 9802
Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
Looking at these great charts, can someone make a good case for the PP vs. The Golden Butterfly Portfolio? ..... <snip>...... One thing that wasn't so easy was trying to split the stock allocation into a 50-50 Large Blend, Small Value combo within a 401k. Adds another level of complexity to it. My ...
- Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:55 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
- Replies: 14
- Views: 9802
Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
I'm curious how the GB measures up to Merriman? Also I'd be a little cautious about any stock heavy portfolio right now with the way that the market is behaving. Even these. Only here is 40% stocks considered stock heavy.... :) As for comparison with Merriman, if want to put in all the details, ca...
- Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:57 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: LTT's Pullback
- Replies: 8
- Views: 4344
Re: LTT's Pullback
Haven't hit a rebalance band. Although my PPish portfolio is "different" - have LTT in VUSUX (Vanguard Long Term Treasury mutual fund), whose duration is really short by PP LTT standards (~16 years.)
It's down 0.31% YTD (12/22/2015.)
It's down 0.31% YTD (12/22/2015.)
- Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:39 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP now beating SP500 YTD
- Replies: 61
- Views: 29172
Re: PP now beating SP500 YTD
We'll see, but I thought no PP has a bit more catching up to do. LTT might pass SP500 though.Libertarian666 wrote: How is it going now? I see the market is down and gold is up...
- Tue Dec 08, 2015 12:08 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: MachineGhost's Research Depot
- Replies: 52
- Views: 19672
Re: Heterodox "All Weather" Portfolios
Thanks! Looking forward to stock tilts away from S&P 500 helping again....
- Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:22 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Religion Of Peace Visits California
- Replies: 120
- Views: 30058
Re: Religion Of Peace Visits California
Yes, interesting article. Thanks for sharing.
- Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:23 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
- Replies: 13
- Views: 5963
Re: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
isn't the main issue not with iau itself, but that iau is managed by the same company as a couple other popular (and harder to find alternatives for) PP etf's. and you end up with a "to many eggs in one basket" problem if you hold iau as well? Yup - TLT and IAU both from iShares. I use VUSTX (VGLT ...
- Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:03 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Why do you use the PP?
- Replies: 177
- Views: 72264
Re: Why do you use the PP?
there are many portfolios that are BH (no one allocation as per PP.) Way I see BH: 25% - 100% Stocks (50 - 70% for majority?) 0% to 55% Intl (20% - 40% avg?) 0 - 100% tilted (Small, Value, REIT, emerging mkt,...) Fixed allocation vs glide path Bonds Mostly total market ...