Search found 655 matches

by Dieter
Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New rebalance study
Replies: 3
Views: 3109

New rebalance study

Live soft posted the following link over at Bogleheads.

http://www.able2pay.com/rebalancing.html

Quite different from PP, but interesting, esp for non-PPs.
by Dieter
Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:09 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bonds vs Deflation
Replies: 8
Views: 4902

Re: Bonds vs Deflation

This real return.  Deflation of 1% +1% to long term real rates. Short term rates 0-ish or less real (-1% to start, before fees.) Stocks probably drop (deferred purchases as items cheaper in the future; companies reduce prices and salaries; future earning projections down not up.) Existing debt, issu...
by Dieter
Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on Asset Price Inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 2851

Re: Thoughts on Asset Price Inflation

Pointedstick wrote: I'm 100% with you on asset price inflation being the politically-acceptable substitute for consumer goods price inflation. I don't know what the future holds either. Interesting times we live in.
+1
by Dieter
Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Momentum Butterfly portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 11993

Re: Momentum Butterfly portfolio

After a year of passive investment using the Permanent Portfolio I frew tired of loosing my hard earned money. So in November I switched to an Absolute Momentum Portfolio and begun worrying about my money on a daily basis. When the market tanked at the beginning of the year I sold. The following da...
by Dieter
Tue Jan 19, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Portfolio Charts
Replies: 120
Views: 43121

Re: Portfolio Charts

Have you thought of reporting the optimum for different start/end periods? Might highlight that there isn't a set optimum.... One set:   All start 1972   End points: 82, 92, 2002, 2012, 2015 Other set:   Start 72, 82, 92, 2002   End 2015 And then with your remaining copious free time, optimum at the...
by Dieter
Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals
Replies: 17
Views: 10546

Re: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals

Wh did you pick trend following over moving averages? (Did link to a moving aberages study even.)

Why moving to cash? I played around a bit with moving averages at portfolio visualizer, and switching to int term treasures instead of cash helped.

What with ITT yielding what cash used to....
by Dieter
Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Trouble With Bernie
Replies: 26
Views: 6563

Re: The Trouble With Bernie

Sanders definitely electable. I don't see congress shifting, so probably not too dramatic changes in laws.

Trump with a republican congress?
by Dieter
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: study of 90-10 portfolios
Replies: 13
Views: 8873

Re: study of 90-10 portfolios

Bernstein talks about never being less than 25% stocks (or more than 75%.). What duration bonds / include a cash emergency fund? Around these here parts, the default for "Bonds" implies long duration treasuries.... All that being said, I'd go simple route and put into one of S&P 500, total IS stock,...
by Dieter
Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
Replies: 9
Views: 7171

Re: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%

My bad results were solely due to long bonds and gold. If I hadn't touched those, I'd have been flat for the year. My losers (rough order): Gold (-10ish) Small Cap Value (-5%ish) Total International TIPS Long Term Treasury Gainers: Total Bond Index US Large/Mid Cap index (Russell 1000) Short term B...
by Dieter
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645270

Re: Stock scream room

I keep thinking how much more money everyone else will have....

... yeah, definitely losers too, but.....
by Dieter
Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656598

Re: The GOLD scream room

We want it to go to $500? Not me......

Staying at $1,000 sounds better.
by Dieter
Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Democratic discomfort on the taxes that would actually fund their ideas
Replies: 30
Views: 12136

Re: Democratic discomfort on the taxes that would actually fund their ideas

TennPaGa wrote: Congratulations on the new baby, PS!

Out of curiosity... Did you and your wife consider a home birth?
Since this thread is talking about the cost of health care... While it's been over 10 years, I recall our out of pocket cost was higher for the home birth than for a hospital birth....
by Dieter
Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:51 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Foreign Markets Take A Pounding
Replies: 6
Views: 5515

Re: Foreign Markets Take A Pounding

Get at least my one day of desired tracking error this year....

Even with 40-ish percent in stocks having 50-ish percent in gold/LTT/"cash" (short-term bond) helps on days like this.

Which in the scheme of things, isn't that big a change by itself.
by Dieter
Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Any Changes for the New Year?
Replies: 27
Views: 13417

Re: Any Changes for the New Year?

Pug, That's a very good question.  In the end I think the major item for me is the lack of potential return going forward, possibly for decades, of short term treasuries/cash.  So more than anything it is to separate out a rainy day cash portion and take the 25% that I currently have dedicated to c...
by Dieter
Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Any Changes for the New Year?
Replies: 27
Views: 13417

Re: Any Changes for the New Year?

While small is a small percentage of total stock market, if in a tax advantages account, look at going with a large balanced fund (S&P 500, Wiltshire(?) 1000, ....) instead of total stock market to have more distinct large vs small.
by Dieter
Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Portfolio Charts
Replies: 120
Views: 43121

Re: Portfolio Charts

I propose one mega SWR chart with all of the lazy portfolios on one chart. With the bars lined up from tallest to shortest, left-to-right. Sort based on the 30 year horizon (they might not sort the same way for all decades). Different colors for each portfolio, too. Ah -- now that's a good idea. I'...
by Dieter
Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Portfolio Charts
Replies: 120
Views: 43121

Re: Portfolio Charts

Maybe this has been mentioned, but in the pre-defined portfolios, such as http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/merriman-ultimate/, the data includes CAGR, Average Return, and Standard Deviation, while the Pixel Chart doesn't (if the URL copying works -- https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?cid=946d7a...
by Dieter
Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:52 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
Replies: 14
Views: 9802

Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

Looking at these great charts, can someone make a good case for the PP vs. The Golden Butterfly Portfolio? ..... <snip>...... One thing that wasn't so easy was trying to split the stock allocation into a 50-50 Large Blend, Small Value combo within a 401k. Adds another level of complexity to it. My ...
by Dieter
Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:55 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance
Replies: 14
Views: 9802

Re: Stocks: fighting the pull of recency/past performance

I'm curious how the GB measures up to Merriman? Also I'd be a little cautious about any stock heavy portfolio right now with the way that the market is behaving. Even these. Only here is 40% stocks considered stock heavy.... :)  As for comparison with Merriman, if want to put in all the details, ca...
by Dieter
Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: LTT's Pullback
Replies: 8
Views: 4344

Re: LTT's Pullback

Haven't hit a rebalance band. Although my PPish portfolio is "different" - have LTT in VUSUX (Vanguard Long Term Treasury mutual fund), whose duration is really short by PP LTT standards (~16 years.)

It's down 0.31% YTD (12/22/2015.)
by Dieter
Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP now beating SP500 YTD
Replies: 61
Views: 29172

Re: PP now beating SP500 YTD

Libertarian666 wrote: How is it going now? I see the market is down and gold is up...
We'll see, but I thought no PP has a bit more catching up to do. LTT might pass SP500 though.
by Dieter
Tue Dec 08, 2015 12:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: MachineGhost's Research Depot
Replies: 52
Views: 19672

Re: Heterodox "All Weather" Portfolios

Thanks! Looking forward to stock tilts away from S&P 500 helping again.... :)
by Dieter
Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:22 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Religion Of Peace Visits California
Replies: 120
Views: 30058

Re: Religion Of Peace Visits California

Yes, interesting article. Thanks for sharing.
by Dieter
Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU
Replies: 13
Views: 5963

Re: I keep seeing GLD being recommended over IAU

isn't the main issue not with iau itself, but that iau is managed by the same company as a couple other popular (and harder to find alternatives for) PP etf's. and you end up with a "to many eggs in one basket" problem if you hold iau as well? Yup - TLT and IAU both from iShares. I use VUSTX (VGLT ...
by Dieter
Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why do you use the PP?
Replies: 177
Views: 72264

Re: Why do you use the PP?

there are many portfolios that are BH (no one allocation as per PP.) Way I see BH: 25% - 100% Stocks (50 - 70% for majority?)       0% to 55% Intl (20% - 40% avg?)       0 - 100% tilted (Small, Value, REIT, emerging mkt,...)       Fixed allocation vs glide path Bonds       Mostly total market       ...