http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_MED_SMARTPHONE_BLINDNESS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-22-17-26-38 In Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine, doctors detailed the cases of the two women, ages 22 and 40, who experienced "transient smartphone blind...

Cheap for now, but it won't be cheap once/if interest rates rise. But foregoing the obvious, the PP can easily experience a 20-30% drawdown which would leave you down 40-60% + margin interest. I can't recall the historical max intraday drawdown, but it may be even higher than that. So in a hypotheti...

I'd say it's pretty clear that what you want to do classifies as investment advising in California and that you'd have to be registered with the state to do so.

But please call the appropriate sources to get an official answer before you do anything.

Wow. that's a lot of dry powder as Craig would put it. You are quite the pessimist hah. :) More like I couldn't find any value!  Stocks -- nope.  Bonds -- risky.  Gold -- downtrend.  At least I nibbled. I do think we're going to look back at this losing year as "Tight Money"...  even if i...

Simply following a 200 day MA will get you stopped out all over the place. One key point is to only check 1x per month, same day of the month. It will cause some excess trades, for sure. Small price to pay for potential benefits. But it's not a lazy portfolio. Once a month will be very risky, and j...

there ias no guarantee when if rates rise  on bonds that the pp won't sustain moderate prolonged losses over an extended period of time if gold and bonds take a hit and its investors bail at losses . . Just a minor correction above. You do make a good point though about drawdown tolerance. Taking i...

Working systems are a dime a dozen.  Believing in them and sticking to them thick and thin is where the failure lies.  Discipline. 100% true and backtestable. Systems fail when emotions trump system rules. There's no difference between a moving average and a rebalancing band; both are measures of m...

Why bother donning a winter coat in summer, just because we know winter is coming? Enjoy the summer, but know where the coat is. Interesting analogy, but let's take it a step farther. In the big scheme of things, our collective financial analysis knowledge is like that of a child compared to all of...

yeah , i know if you are doing it you will try to justify it with no one knows what is next , but a reasonable person who is not entrenched in gold would  at least wait until some signs are in place when the trend is your friend to make a big commitment . they would likely committ no more than 10% ...

I've seen this one mentioned before. Once per month calculate trailing 3 month return of 4 PP assets. Invest in top 3. 1994-present CAGR: 7.4% Max daily DD: -20.0% 1994 -4.0 1995 21.3 1996 6.1 1997 12.1 1998 4.8 1999 4.7 2000 0.6 2001 2.7 2002 14.0 2003 9.5 2004 5.4 2005 5.7 2006 15.1 2007 14.0 2008...

How many trades did your setup end up making?  As Ochotona showed and I looked at a while back, using 10 month MA is something done out there by folks.  I find even that is doing too much trading and is too whippy for my tastes.  On GLD, since my entry into the PP in Feb 2014, I would have gone in ...

gold will always have short term moves based on the dollar  not crises unless inflationary ... Does this really matter? If gold responds to the dollar and the dollar responds to a crisis, what difference does it make? You still get the desired response. at the height of the financial crises gold ac...

Same as the above except 100% stocks when bullish. Switch between: 100% total stock market (VTSMX) and the PP (using VTSMX/VUSTX/VFISX and CEF before switching to GLD when it comes available in 2004) When:  SPY is above/below its 200-day SMA. I only look at the portfolio once per month to determine ...

I'd be happy to run some backtests of various allocations or rotation based systems and post the results. For instance, I can run a backtest that switches between two portfolio allocations when some basic criteria is met such as the price of SPY breaking above it's X-day SMA or when two SMA's cross....

that is because you are confusing volatility with losses and gains . the pp is less volatile . but that does not mean at times it's losses won't be greater since other models develop bigger cushions from which they fall . as i say , i don't give a hoot about peaks and valleys . if the  volatility m...

You know what perversely gives me the most pleasure?  Days like today, with gold and TLT up, and stocks down.  So when I hear the Wall Street numbers on the radio or TV, I feel like I am in a secret club that isn't affected by downturns in stocks since that is nearly 100% of the focus of the media....

i merely looked at 2008 on yahoo finance  , the year the crisis blew up .  if you go beyond the event , well you have gold continuing its rise , stocks  starting to soar and take off and even TLT continuing its rise right up to jan 2015 with a bump or two along the way .  since all assets pretty mu...

craigs web site "Why do I want to own gold in my Permanent Portfolio? Gold is a powerful asset that protects against inflation or threats of inflation. Gold also offers protection against problems that may threaten a currency or banking system. i think we saw quite a few banking systems and cu...

rented units that tenant won't pay rent, requiring eviction Apparently this can be a real nightmare. Example: tenant can't pay rent, landlord starts eviction process, tenant fabricates issues such as landlord negligence, landlord sues tenant, tenant countersues landlord, months and months pass with...

I'm thinking of buying rental properties for cash.  The low end of the housing market in my area is around $130K for a small house in a decent neighborhood, and rents go for around $1,500 per month, which should deliver a cap rate (investment return) of over 10%.  Since it's the lower end of the ma...

you can move 1 years difference and get totally different results most of the time . playing with charts is in the end meaningless if it is not your own time frame . we can all pick dates to make something look good or bad .  why pick 10 years . why not the last 7 when equitys soared a few hundred ...

Also VBR. Anything Vanguard I highly recommend.

what does the 1986 to 2014 show as far as total return ?  looking at what was a miserable 10 year period which was after the best 17 year period in history does not tell the story . since i started back then i would be curious . You definitely got in at the right time. But if today were 1999, you'd...

I think a prosperity tilted VP is a great idea. Given nearly guaranteed government/central bank intervention when things get rough, it's tough to see how the US stock market can stay down for too long. Millions of workers are depositing money into their 401k's every single paycheck. Most of it goes ...

mathjak107 wrote: are there any funds except the pp that had losses 3 years in a row ?  i am not sure there are unless they followed a similar format .

I missed this statement. What data are you using that shows the PP having 3 years of losses in a row?