I am going through a rough part of my life, and the PP is the last thing on my mind. If you find yourself pre-occupied with the PP's recent lackluster performance, do yourself a favor and focus on bigger and better things. Life may be passing you by.

That is all.

I have always thought that fair value is a term more often used when one is practicing value investing. The PP is definitely not a value strategy, so if you are actually trying to do the PP I would just follow rebalancing bands.

I really think this can be best thought of as "tight money." Of course, it's not actually tight money but more appropriately "tighter than expected" money. Historically the PP has not responded well to tighter than expected monetary policy, most notably in 1981, so i don't think ...

When you started the PP, were you aware that 20% drawdowns are possible with the PP? My guess is that you lost about 5-6% so far. Try to imagine losing 20%, if you can't handle that you should invest in a more conservative, less volatile strategy. I think a common occurrence is that people buy into...

New location for me. Hoboken, NJ. I got a job in Jersey City. If anyone wants to grab drinks in NYC sometime let me know 

I really think that the pure expectations hypothesis is a great way to think about the long end of the curve. Under that model, the long end of the curve is best thought of as the geometric average of expected short term rates over the given period. That means that when yields spike on the end of t...

I really think that the pure expectations hypothesis is a great way to think about the long end of the curve. Under that model, the long end of the curve is best thought of as the geometric average of expected short term rates over the given period. That means that when yields spike on the end of th...

Fradika, your portfolio seems very reasonable. I think that having meaningful exposure to stocks, bonds, and some type of commodity/gold (not the producers but the actual 'thing') gets you 90% of the way there.  I am curious why you decided to go with some long dollar exposure. Would you mind sharin...

Everyone should also keep in mind that historically the PP has had 2 drawdowns where in real terms the portfolio was down over 20%. That doesn't show up in the annual data, you have to look intra year for that. If something has already happened in the past, you should be ready for it to happen again...

You are simply making sh*t up. It certainly does feel like that at times! Definitely not making it up. You can read more about the history of money in this book: http://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Modern-Money-Employment-Stability/dp/1845429419/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1371139089&sr=8-1&...

I think a lot of people bought into gold on misguided inflation expectations. I think the market is still learning what QE does and doesn't do.

Today's inflation data was incredibly weak:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-1 ... onomy.html

I think it will be interesting to see how the current societal structure holds up with the rising inequality. Democracy = one person, one vote Capitalism- one dollar, one vote As the upper echelon of the capitalist class get richer and richer the contradictions of living in democractic/capitalist so...

An interesting historical phenomenon is that in Europe different gold coins, with the same weight in gold, traded at different values in the free market. They traded at different premiums to their metallic content. This flys in the face of the idea that gold was the determinant of the currencies val...

Speaking of MachineGhost, I contacted him a few weeks ago and he is fine. He is in relaxation mode and, yes, has found companionship in the opposite sex! ;) Nothing like a girlfriend to ease the mind and pull you away from an internet forum. Hah. My GF would probably appreciate if I spent less time...

I like to think of cash vs. bonds as a continuum. The only real difference between cash and bonds is the duration. They are both fixed income, cash just has a really short maturity. The bond fund you are proposing is going to have a return profile similar to what one could expect from a blend of cas...

I think robotics will allow the pie to grow much faster, but I think the distribution of that pie will become far less equal. However, the political system can redistribute some of the pie if deemed socially necessary, but I think the country is moving in the opposite direction. I doubt these effici...

Interesting idea. Personally, I like the vanilla PP because it has clear macro drivers that can explain the price movements of the assets. From my observation, bitcoin has unique price movements that are more related to speculative mania/depressions than the actual economy. Personally, I would worry...

I wouldn't necessarily say it is "supposed" to be 10 years, but I will say that a PP consisting of 50% 10 year Treasuries, 25% stocks, and 25% gold is nearly identical to a vanilla PP. Having a targeted maturity instead of the barbell gives you a higher expected return if interest rates st...

A lot of the US companies that do business abroad hedge their foreign revenues back into dollars. Whereas a foreign company that does business in the US might be hedging their US business out of dollars back into the local currency.

I think that what some  people need is a reiteration of the basic strength and soundness of the PP strategy. Almost like a rehashing of the original Boglehead thread where we can illucidate the benefits and help overcome doubts using facts, charts, and graphs. I can start with the charts  ;) http:/...

Budd, You are the master of your portfolio. If you want more equities than there is nothing stopping you. In the past I have toyed around with the idea of... 20% US stocks 20% Int stocks 20% LTT 20% T-Bills 20% Gold However, don't you have a stock heavy VP? I am not sure why you are even upset right...

The sheer volume of these zealous right-wing posts make me worry, for example, because they imply that other posts on this forum are subject to lurking biases.  When intelligent people come to different conclusions one one topic, and the same conclusions on another topic, it makes you wonder which ...

The point is not what gold does verus inflation. The real question is does gold, bonds, bills, and stocks combined into one portfolio give you smooth real returns. Looking at assets in isolation never makes sense. For something as abstract as gold it makes even less sense.  :) I only care about what...

Man, that country is a train wreck.

Perhaps you should check more often so that you can empathize with those of us that are concerned. If you look once or twice per year and the portfolio is down 15-20%, what, if any, action would you take? I am concerned that I would capitulate. I can't imagine a scenario short of nuclear war where ...