I took a look on Portfolio Visualizer comparing the PP, GB, and a 60/40 (with World-TSM and ITT as bond). Starting 2010 (after the last crash) with $100k, and monthly 1k contributions. All of them were creamed by the Classic Jack Bogle Vanguard 60/40 portfolio (the green benchmark line). America kic...

Anyway, I think having written this all out, I am not really disagreeing with you on much of anything except the idea that Omicron can actually be contained. Oh I agree completely with you on this as well. It's just a matter of time. I was merely noting that they have been successful-ish so far in ...

Wifey said some people traveled to complain about the bank run only to discover that, despite being perfectly healthy, their official health app suddenly told them they were not safe to enter the area and thus could not complain or make a withdrawal. The commies have finally implimented CONTROL's c...

Interesting article from a newsletter for financial advisors I follow: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/06/10/how-i-protect-against-the-coming-market-crash?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AP+Newsletter+2022-06-14+5897&bt_ee=UzxCBJmJf9k5VS7MqJVxSEHH5VG...

Basic question...what exactly is "Cape" and how do I calculate it? Thanks! CAPE = Cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratio. It's essentially a PE ratio, using a ten-year average of earnings. You can look it up here: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Some use 1/CAPE to estimate future s...

Admittedly, modem man, forced by technique to become in reality and without residue the imaginary producer-consumer of the classical economists, shows disconcertingly little regard for his lost freedom; but, according to Ellul, there are ominous signs that human spontaneity, which in the rational...

The definition of "financially independent" is what is setting your goal post. This definition is different for everyone. Do you have a formula in mind? Personally, I calculate it as follows: (Annual Spending x Cape) x 1.2 = Entry-Level Financially Independent Your calculation makes sense...

Another week later, it seems that my AA has settled into a pretty steady state. Only two small tweaks 1) I moved my I-bonds and TIPS to the "non-stocks traditional" quartile, 2) This freed up room for a 5% commodities allocation. But really everything is still mainly cash as we slowly blee...

By the way, I put the word 'virus" in quotes above because, according to my Chinese friends, what's really going on with the lockdowns is a struggle within the Communist party before they meet later this year to either extend Xi's reign or kick him out. Xi is more or less taking an extreme act...

Yikes. I've been wondering how the real estate semi-defaults in china might play out. Heart-wrenching.

Kbg wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:34 pm Right now 4% is pretty dicey

Yeah. with all the insanity in the market, If I was near retirement, I'd seriously consider delaying it and if already retired I'd seriously consider looking for part time work just to limit the early drawdowns during this volatile time.

holy shit...looks like something might get passed through the senate. The compromise would make the juvenile records of gun buyers under age 21 available when they undergo background checks. The suspects who killed 10 Black people at a grocery store in Buffalo and 19 students and two teachers at an ...

ochotona wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 11:44 am US Treasury sent me an email saying they expect conversion of paper I-Bonds to digital to take SIXTEEN WEEKS!

Yeah...that's why I'm not interested the whole tax return in paper I-bonds gimmick. Seems like a total PITA.

I know its by design...but I bonds aren't THAT awesome ar they?

Here's an interesting article on the 4% rule for retires. https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/how-to-face-the-single-biggest-fear-in-retirement Basically if you got $1M and follow the 4% rule (start first year of retirement withdrawing 4%, then track for inflation thereafter)...you'll be fine, (or eve...

I have RSP on the brain today (equal-weight S&P500 ETF). A GB with 40% RSP beats a GB with 20% ISV and 20% VTI, but the limiting factor for my backtesting (portfoliovisualizer.com) is when GLD started. It makes sense, RSP is not an implicit growth strategy (unlike cap-weighted ETFs) is therefor...

I will have to try! And that point the GB devolves into an HBPP with an equity tilt... Isn't that the basic point of the GB? It's a HBPP with a prosperity tilt with <choose favorite factor(s)> to spice up the second equity peortion. Then again, as I write this, maybe GB is more than that. The curre...

ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:53 pm Same ideas apply to gold, silver, uranium, cobalt, lithium, nickel. We are way past peak coal right now.

And peak domestic livestock labor...and human physical labor (for now).

I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.

I put 1% of my portfolio into EnergyFunders.com they directly invest in oil & gas wells. But it has a 3-5 year lock up, it's for accredited investors only, and you sign away your money! No liquidity, you cannot get out. I know the people involved personally, so it was semi-easy for me here in H...

I am thinking that overweighting gold may be the best course of action. Gold has returned a scant 0.7% YTD return. My thinking is that gold will further increase as more and more investors take a defensive position, in light of current and future economic conditions. Your thoughts? If this bout of ...

BTW, I've been following your posts/thought processes as you wrestle with portfolio/investment strategy. My advice would be to not jump in with both feet until you are 100% convinced with it for a while. The worst thing you can do is jump in, have second thoughts when one of the components loses a ...

Good to get your update, Cortopassi. It seems this has become less of a PP forum and more of a "this is what I am doing now" place. Which is fine. How many folks around here are actually in the PP? I can only think of maybe 3 folks? I suspect the failure of Gold to rise during this everyt...

Vil wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:15 am Sorry for being ignorant, but did not have time today to read the news for US - what's the current 'explanation' for the S&P/QQQ down days ?

In EU we had the ECB announcement yesterday, which might serve as some explanation ...

Inflation CPI higher than expected. So the freakout continues.

The current situation in the federal government is so awful, I'm desperate enough to try more state rights as a way to manage the chaotic gridlock out east. Maybe Federalism is what we need as a Republic. Holy shit...if it actually works out, I may have to give Trump and McConnell some credit. if a...

With all the attention on the leaked draft on Roe v. Wade, the possibility of Miranda being reversed is not on the radar (yet). The Supreme Court now seems poised to reverse its decision in Miranda, which, much like Dobbs, would give states—and, to a significant extent, individual towns—the power t...

And when you acknowledge that you really can't, how does taking guns away from law abiding citizens solve anything? So we're supposed to just live with this high level of mass violence? We should just let things be what they are today and wait for the next sensational trajedy so we can ignore it ag...