Search found 2066 matches

by Tyler
Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement
Replies: 46
Views: 10720

Re: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement

So 1970 was not one of the worst outcome time frames for a retiree spending down if you are trying to find the worst outcome to measure pass or fail I totally agree. I'm not talking about only looking at retirements starting in 1970. I'm talking about looking at every retirement year since 1970. Th...
by Tyler
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement
Replies: 46
Views: 10720

Re: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement

That is with 60/40 and counting the time frames starting dates which were much worse than starting in 1970 for spending down in I respect your perspective, Mathjak, but the data doesn't support this statement. The difference between starting a withdrawal rates study for a 60/40 portfolio in 1870 an...
by Tyler
Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement
Replies: 46
Views: 10720

Re: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement

Tyler , I am not getting a paste option where you drop the code ..it is giving only a copy option where the code should be pasted Yeah, it requires a keyboard shortcut. I wish I could enable the normal right click paste, but unfortunately that's out of my control. Copy the text. Double-click the bl...
by Tyler
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement
Replies: 46
Views: 10720

Re: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement

In this current environment, What percentage withdrawal do feel is safe to maintain principle going forward in the classic HBPP? You can try playing around with this tool to understand how different withdrawal strategies would have handled all of the different historical retirement periods I have d...
by Tyler
Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement
Replies: 46
Views: 10720

Re: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement

Here's how I generally do it: 1. Turn off automatic reinvestment of funds and let the dividends and interest collect in your brokerage cash account. 2. During your annual rebalance, plan on taking out 1 year of expenses. If the cash that has already collected doesn't cover it, set aside some of your...
by Tyler
Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler!
Replies: 24
Views: 6501

Re: Paging Tyler!

vnatale wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:28 pm
Is your Luka D going to torture we Celtics fans again tonight???!!
It looks like the answer is yes. O0

This is how I imagine most Celtics fans feel right now:

Image
by Tyler
Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New PP Book
Replies: 3
Views: 1670

Re: New PP Book

Fun fact -- the author is a member here and talked about it last year.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10830
by Tyler
Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Tyler hits it out of the park - again!
Replies: 14
Views: 5236

Re: Tyler hits it out of the park - again!

ppnewbie wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:45 am
The analogy about the individual bullets not causing harm because Neo understood the big picture was profound.

I imagine your comment is probably meant for this similarly-titled thread, but thanks! I do like how it captures the right mindset.
by Tyler
Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:57 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why in the World Would You Own Dollar Debt? - Dalio
Replies: 21
Views: 6251

Re: Why in the World Would You Own Dollar Debt? - Dalio

Another excellent perspective on Dalio: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/ray-dalio-the-power-of-setting-defaults-for-optimism/ That's really good. Thanks for sharing! Ben Carlson is definitely one of the better investing writers out there, IMO. I really appreciate his balanced perspective.
by Tyler
Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:47 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why in the World Would You Own Dollar Debt? - Dalio
Replies: 21
Views: 6251

Re: Why in the World Would You Own Dollar Debt? - Dalio

Can this also be applied to the recently discussed Jeremy Grantham interviews or no? I mean, bright guy/no slouch/ not necessarily wrong ✓ The bubble is going to burst any time now ✓ Only emerging value looks cheap ✓ I happen to have emerging value funds for sale ✓ Yep. And it also applies to the "...
by Tyler
Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:14 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why in the World Would You Own Dollar Debt? - Dalio
Replies: 21
Views: 6251

Re: Why in the World Would You Own Dollar Debt? - Dalio

I respect Dalio a lot, but I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that he's also a salesman. You can see it all the way up in the first paragraph: These extremely low or nonexistent yields do not meet these asset holders’ funding needs. For example, pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth ...
by Tyler
Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler!
Replies: 24
Views: 6501

Re: Paging Tyler!

As the end of Thursday's Celtics postgame show Brian Scalabrine stated that Porzingis fits the profile of someone that Danny Ainge goes after. We shall see! It does seem like Boston could use a change, but Ainge has the same reputation among other GMs as that guy in your fantasy football league who...
by Tyler
Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 105
Views: 19270

Re: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio

Most people tend to hang out , high five and support only those who support their view ....they never spend time really getting in to the enemies camp ..they never really understand the negatives the other side sees because they never sleep with the enemy . When one fully understands the enemy’s si...
by Tyler
Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 105
Views: 19270

Re: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio

But why do you feel the need to say that though. I'm sure I'm not the only one with an interest in further discussion. I just don't understand why others have to come in and essentially share that they're not interested. I can't speak for everyone else, but I've been here for a while and can offer ...
by Tyler
Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 105
Views: 19270

Re: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio

Thanks Tyler. I think I meant coupon rate rather than starting yield. Can you check that for me? And I'm talking about expected long term return rather than return at the end of the year. Edit: Maybe I didn't think wrong because coupon rate is the starting yield as well? For the purposes of this da...
by Tyler
Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 105
Views: 19270

Re: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio

Bond returns are highly correlated to starting yield and we know how low bond yields are in absolute terms. You sure about that? Here's the last 51 years of data. For short term bonds, your statement generally holds up (with the caveat that high starting rates don't prevent low returns when rates r...
by Tyler
Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 105
Views: 19270

Re: Let's debate the Permanent Portfolio

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:08 am
While it always feels like we can get sideswiped any minute the fact is we have not had a down year in equities since 2008 ...
You mean 2018?
by Tyler
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Google Sheets pulling wrong price for TLT
Replies: 30
Views: 15779

Re: Google Sheets pulling wrong price for TLT

Funny how a problem in a simple spreadsheet function can set the entire financial world on high alert. I get it! If you depend on things like Google Sheets to pull daily price data, I saw a pretty good idea on Bogleheads to make it more robust for times when the data service goes down. Basically, fo...
by Tyler
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:58 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT vs EDV vs ZROZ
Replies: 13
Views: 16255

Re: TLT vs EDV vs ZROZ

If I backtest on portfolio visualizer I see that EDV is closer in Standard Deviation to stocks (I used small and mid cap in my PP) than TLT is. Be careful about using historical volatility data like that. Bond volatility increases as rates fall , so calculating standard deviation using historical n...
by Tyler
Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tyler hits it out of the park (again)
Replies: 12
Views: 3223

Re: Tyler hits it out of the park (again)

PS. That may coincide with the (long?) expected stock bubble burst.. then you will be right on time ;) Ha! Writing a book on defensive asset allocation and sitting on it until the stock market tanks would be a real power play. If you're not in marketing, you should consider it. ;) Yeah, I've though...
by Tyler
Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tyler hits it out of the park (again)
Replies: 12
Views: 3223

Re: Tyler hits it out of the park (again)

I’m not at all trying to imply that they’re not very serious issues that deserve investor attention Do you think it should be “not...that don’t deserve investor attention” —? Maybe not. i guess it depends on where you mentally put the brackets. Good catch! Yeah, the string of negatives kinda got ou...
by Tyler
Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Wikipedia Is the Last Best Place on the Internet
Replies: 13
Views: 2064

Re: Wikipedia Is the Last Best Place on the Internet

In related news, one of the Wikipedia co-founders believes it is broken and is working on a new alternative.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -gone.html
by Tyler
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tyler hits it out of the park (again)
Replies: 12
Views: 3223

Re: Tyler hits it out of the park (again)

Thanks for the link and top-notch reference, Kevin. And for the kind words, Cortopassi.

But seriously, I Shrugged. YES. Watch it asap. 8)
by Tyler
Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:09 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler!
Replies: 24
Views: 6501

Re: Paging Tyler!

Good game, right? O0 For those who missed it, here are his highlights from tonight. Be sure to watch to the end.

Luka is amazing. And the crazy thing is that he plays like that all the time. He's a walking highlight reel who just finds ways to win.
by Tyler
Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Amazon Plus
Replies: 5
Views: 1021

Re: Amazon Plus

Yeah, I assume he meant Kindle Unlimited. The book he was referencing is indeed free for KU subscribers.