Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:17 am
My take: useful yes, but not as a means to predict or expect the same outcome in the future.

Just for fun. What a difference a year makes

But...the barbell is what I am looking to get to. Have enough "safe" investments, social security, gold, US bonds, etc, to allow decently higher risk on the other end. Here's a starter I did a while back for Australia. Will be interested to see what you decide on. Not many choices down he...

Would you all agree in terms of risk that corp bonds would fall in the middle here? High Risk to Lower Risk: --Individual common stock --Preferred stock --Stock ETFs/funds --Corp bonds --Muni bonds --CDs/Savings accounts --US Treasuries --Physical gold (not sure it is the lowest risk, just wanted t...

My question was simply this -- do the asset allocations of model portfolios adequately account for such a potential risk? Seems to me that those with a significant weighting to gold might, but that traditional stock/bond portfolios do not. FWIW Agree with you and Jack Jones. However your potential ...

I've done some reading in my time on passive model portfolios, but in all those books, I honestly don't recall the authors addressing the possibility of sovereign default, with the possible exception of HB. By and large, they seem to take US solvency and credit worthiness as a given, and I don't re...

https://fourpillarfreedom.com/heres-how ... ince-1970/

https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads ... Book-1.pdf

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

Enjoy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoNE-p5GDqg

This popped up in the YouTube suggestions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXFroXYBFEQ

Hard to believe less than a year ago there were lockdowns, curfews at night, allowed out for an hour a day etc...
Guess dropping the draconian rules had nothing to do with an election in November

Nice find. Thanks. Will be listening to whole talk.

PS: Thanks also to KBG on his Optimisation post

Just pondering... On reading articles stating that the PP is a "Risk Parity" solution I was wondering if "Optimisation" actually works So attached are two different optimisation approaches. Risk Parity and Minimum Variance. Neither look successful in 2022. And just for a hypothet...

Things are what they are until they aren’t …when it comes to defensive portfolios I track the pp is the laggard of the lot so far. I only track 3 though .. But I remember the pp being praised for never being down more than 5% in any given year so I have to think 20% is a pretty big shock to those w...

1. Hire room at library etc.

2. Investing Seminar $10 per head. Free book with every ticket

3. Lecture on the GoldSmith portfolio / HB theory / Smith investment fund

4. Leave town

What kind of gold coins do the forum members buy here? 1 ounce coins? These have low spreads that allow you to have more gold per dollar. On the other hand, you give up divisibility in the case where you actually needed to use them for something. The reverse is obviously true for smaller denominati...

The last time we were in this environment, gold responded mightily and more than offset the losses in bonds and the stagnation in stocks. It's not doing the same thing this time so far, and if I had to guess, it probably won't. The dissolution of the gold standard and the subsequent revaluation of ...

Well I am happy
How's the PP doing in other countries?

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:00 pm I currently owe my local library 30 dollars, and they won’t let me take out more books until I pay them.

So, no, I don’t use my local library lmao!!!

Why here in Victoria, Australia books are obsolete
https://vimeo.com/313769282

Courtesy of Hedgeye
Feel free to add to the collection.

From this post and subsequent posts in this topic you seem to be a great believer in the concept of Monte Carlo simulations? If so, how do you react to these Monte Carlo flaws that I just read in a book that I am reading? Capture1.JPGCapture2.JPGCapture3.JPGCapture4.JPGCapture5.JPGCapture6.JPG Than...

Thanks Mathjak,

Oh well, got an indexed army pension, so that's my annuity. Don't suggest spending 20 years of your life to get it though...

Hi Vinny, Just a quick question. What are your thoughts on Anthony Dedens/BelangP's philosophy of maintaining a constant cashflow and not worrying about the market value. I think an example given was a baker. If his business generated the same cashflow each week, why should he worry about what someo...

Spoiler: The sweet spot was 65% stocks, 35% gold That is how I have decided to fund retirement accounts going forward and save in cash outside of retirement. What I find interesting is that the BelangP and PP portfolios have the same safe withdrawal rates... (5.4%) btw, How do you plan to transitio...

Indeed! Definitely one of my favourite features is this "masking" effect. Really helps with behavioural control on the part of the investor! Also noted VCIP came out in 2019. A 20/80 fund vs VCNS 40/60 https://www.vanguard.ca/en/advisor/products/products-group/etfs/VCIP https://web.archiv...

amdda01 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:08 pm Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time?

Just a side note on Smithy's GoldSmith Portfolio. Because you don't "see" the swings in the individual asset classes, it "feels" more stable. Just a perception issue, but very real for a nervous investor.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:58 am Looks like a cool book

It is! Also did a talk on the PP a few years back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fswWHYhQSgE

barrett wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:20 am It's always interesting to discuss young people and how to best get them off to a good start in their investing lives. But this thread has surprising legs for an investment of $250!

Well, to add to the discussion, this book for teenage boys/young men was interesting and amusing