M.T.  Would you define Historical norm for me. 9% or so average annual returns with no large losses along the way. One losing year will happen from time to time, but if I saw back to back losing years with what looked like a third losing year unfolding I would probably reassess the strategy.  It wo...

M.T.  Would you define Historical norm for me. 

I am in retirement also.  For me, cash serves the purpose of lowering the possible draw down of the total portfolio. If we get a 2% or 3% spike in interest rates or have a another tight money recession cash will be the only asset that does not decline in value.  The second purpose of cash, is to be ...

I do!  In just one WORD he got it right!  For Craigr his bogey was 3%-4%.  WOW!  I have never known what I wanted out of investments. But the word BOGEY set my mind on REAL RETURNS and I do appreciate it so much. 

I track a "theoretical" PP consisting of VTI, GLD, TLT, and SHY, with monthly rebalancing and including all published dividends.  For the past 12 months my data says this has returned 6.34%., with individual returns of VTI: 16.45% GLD: 6.6% TLT: 2.41% SHY: 0.25% Morningstar (according to ...

Anyone willing to consider the concept of an Expanded Portfolio?

http://www.aaii.com/asset-allocation/ar ... t-the-mold

Gumby,

Wow!  That chart is a lot of good work.  Thank you so much.  Please check me on this but the quick look is that PP did approx. 4.6% real and the S&P 500 did 5.2% real over 41 years!  I did pass this chart around to a new married friend and to my three children. 

 

Clive, Just a quick look, but did you find a black hole?  Silver did a number of down years and I wonder if you looked at an annual rebalance and what the result would do to the averages.  Also it looks like you would have been a winner during the great Depression in the 1930's with all your monies ...

Clive

The table that goes back to 1929 has Inf in it.  What asset class is Inf?

Clive, is there any method not to run out of money in retirement? The 3X products may have some DECAY?  Only Clive or Wonk or maybe others could offer a guess as to what the decay may be over long time periods.  But assume you are in the withdrawal state for maybe 12 years plus 4 years in long-term ...

Interactive Brokers is offering to split the lending fee with their customers.  The split is 50%.  They will not lend out your securities unless you sign on to the program.  It is my understanding most Brokers lend out your securties if you have a margin account and do not require your approval.  An...

Lone Wolf, Wow, how'd that happen?  30-year rates were up something like 200 basis points in 1981.  I'd have thought that would bring on a large enough capital loss to surely keep LT's negative in '81. I don't remember the exact details but my boss retired with 100% of his money in tax free Munis.  ...

Clive, I think you may on your way to building a super brick Sh*t house in Arkansas.  I would love to have 75% in cash and only have 8.3% in BGU and 8.3% in TMF and 8.3 in UGLD if it would do one time PP. I was going to post this on the thread that Medium Tex started by asking will there be another ...

Wonk,

On a collective portfolio I got the same numbers that you did: 1X=4.03, 2X=7.3 & 3X=10.1. WOW!  I probably will never understand why this tracks.

Wonk, I went to Yahoo Historical prices.  I looked at the period Oct. 17, 2011 to Feb. 15, 2012.  GLD was 162.62 and went to 168.11 for a 3.3% increase.  UGL was 92.24 and went to 95.81 for a 3.9% increase.  UGLD was 50.10 and went to 51.38 for a 2.6% increase.  The 3/ product UGLD should be up 9.9%...

This is a free site for a limited amount of testing.  http://www.etfreplay.com/combine.aspx

The follwoing link warns of Leverage Trap for 2X and 3X products .  Several other sites also say that the volativity is what kills the returns over longer periods.  http://kidgas.hubpages.com/hub/BewareLe ... oxicAssets

Wonk,

What re balance bands would you use for 3XPP, 33% each just for fun.  Is it 46/20?  Anybody out there willing to risk real money? 

bswift, The dividends and interest go to cash and are not reinvested.  I don't know how to make a withdrawal and trying to figure the best way.  It seems that cash and SHY would be the most stable and one could draw it down to 15% without affecting long term performance or paying a lot of taxes.  Ha...

A great post for me bswift.  I am at the withdrawal age and was wondering about how to rebalance and also how to take a annual distribution.  I assume that the best way to take a distribution in real life is from you cash or to sell SHY down to 15% and then to rebalance.  Would that create the highe...

Has anyone tested back to 1972 to see how many times you would need to rebalance using 35%/15% and 30%/20%?  I assume that 35%/15% had the highest returns.