Search found 2066 matches

by Tyler
Fri May 20, 2022 11:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 3194

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

Hmm... It's interesting that PV doesn't have more LTT data than that. It's a terrific tool, but the way it automatically changes the start year is always kinda frustrating. You can rarely actually compare anything apples-to-apples. For the record, I set the gold return for 1970 on PC to 0% since the...
by Tyler
Fri May 20, 2022 10:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 3194

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

While it uses simple annual rebalancing rather than bands, Portfolio Charts has the data coverage you're looking for (back to 1970). Here's the dedicated Permanent Portfolio page: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/permanent-portfolio/ And here's a tool where you can adjust the percentages of the...
by Tyler
Mon May 16, 2022 10:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler!
Replies: 24
Views: 6502

Re: Paging Tyler!

vnatale wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 8:48 am
I heard last night that Phoenix played the all-time worst game 7 of any sport!
I prefer to think of it as Dallas playing the all-time best game 7 of any sport. 8)
by Tyler
Sun May 15, 2022 10:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler!
Replies: 24
Views: 6502

Re: Paging Tyler!

I think you got your answer. :)

It would be awesome to watch Dallas play Boston in the finals. Let's hope they both pull it off!
by Tyler
Mon May 09, 2022 5:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21045

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Hi from a fellow PP forum old-timer, MT! Nice to hear from you, and glad you're doing well. I thought I'd see how folks here were reacting to the recent market conditions, and what a nice surprise it was to see a thread with your name on it! Keep on keepin' on, and stay sane in these chaotic times ...
by Tyler
Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1658055

Re: The GOLD scream room

Thanks, everyone! Yeah, the section on gold is an important one for anyone considering adding some to their own portfolio. Occupying the very best portfolios while also being the single worst investing option by itself presents a unique challenge for investors who like to track their portfolios clos...
by Tyler
Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Correlation coefficient finding software or website?
Replies: 4
Views: 1578

Re: Correlation coefficient finding software or website?

You may also want to eliminate redundant portfolios (10% stocks has the same impact if it's in the first or tenth section) to increase efficiency. Out of curiosity, I spent a bit of time working out the full set of solutions. With 4 asset options to fill 10% chunks of a portfolio, the number of pos...
by Tyler
Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:32 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler!
Replies: 24
Views: 6502

Re: Paging Tyler!

Luka definitely seems to enjoy playing the Celtics!

https://twitter.com/BallySportsSW/statu ... 7060176896
by Tyler
Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:57 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Correlation coefficient finding software or website?
Replies: 4
Views: 1578

Re: Correlation coefficient finding software or website?

Another way to approach the problem is to constrain it enough that it's realistic to model every possible solution. For example, instead of looking at hundredths of a percent try looking at 10% intervals. A portfolio could then be broken into 10 sections, where each section could be filled with one ...
by Tyler
Fri Oct 29, 2021 11:05 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Windows 11 PSA
Replies: 17
Views: 6381

Re: Windows 11 PSA

Saw this and thought of this thread: Apple seems to have forgotten it built a notch in the MacBook Pro Every new design often has bugs that eventually get worked out, but Apple is pretty notorious for completely ignoring product usability when normal user needs conflict with primarily aesthetic desi...
by Tyler
Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Windows 11 PSA
Replies: 17
Views: 6381

Re: Windows 11 PSA

Home networking ---- you gotta be kidding. Takes hours to figure out why two computers can't connect to each other and transfer files. I'm not a Windows networking expert by any stretch of the imagination. I've always struggled with that. But IMO one thing they did really well is OneDrive. Try sync...
by Tyler
Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:39 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 26
Views: 6834

Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

Thanks for posting that other thread, too. Clearly I've been beating the Wellesley/Gold drum for a while. :) As an aside, I totally agree with you that some of the Vanguard style drift changes with a few funds lately have been perplexing. The worst offender was when they completely switched strategi...
by Tyler
Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 26
Views: 6834

Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

Can you generate the same chart using Wellesley and a pinch of gold say 10-20%? Here's an older thread with several charts (including the WRs) for that portfolio. If you squint, 80% Wellesley and 20% Gold looks a lot like the Permanent Portfolio structurally and acts a lot like the Golden Butterfly...
by Tyler
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:00 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 26
Views: 6834

Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

Any ideas? Could do a lot worse than simply using the Wellesley Fund. I'm not really an actively-managed mutual fund kinda guy, but if I had to choose 1 fund for my money I'd pick the Vanguard Wellesley fund. And it's what I recommend to people who just want to put their money in one place and not ...
by Tyler
Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Podcasts
Replies: 80
Views: 28160

Re: Podcasts

I appreciate the kind words. Forums like this one taught me a lot over the years, and I'm always happy to give back.

BTW, if you like Animal Spirits, be sure to also check out the wider Ritholtz team discussions on The Compound.
by Tyler
Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Historical Periods of High Inflation: Interest Rates?
Replies: 7
Views: 3137

Re: Historical Periods of High Inflation: Interest Rates?

My specific desire for understanding is real returns for cash accounts. When we had high inflation in the past, were savings account yielding negative 5% real return? No. Believe it or not, even as inflation in the US spiked well into double digits in the late 70s and early 80s, Tbills lagged infla...
by Tyler
Mon May 31, 2021 4:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Small Cap Value index funds
Replies: 4
Views: 2033

Re: Small Cap Value index funds

It comes down to index definitions. In terms of size, here's a chart that shows the market coverage for each of the 3 indices. Note that VBR follows CRSP. https://i2.wp.com/portfoliocharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/cap_comparison.png?w=640&ssl=1 As you can see, the S&P Smallcap 600 covers a muc...
by Tyler
Mon May 17, 2021 10:19 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler
Replies: 2
Views: 1006

Re: Paging Tyler

I've always found that taking the time to organize your thoughts clearly enough to publish them on a website is a really rewarding way to explore the things you find most interesting. So starting one is a great idea. Personally, I use a combination of Wordpress for the site and Excel for the interac...
by Tyler
Fri May 14, 2021 12:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Portfolio Charts & Hedged Bonds
Replies: 5
Views: 2670

Re: Portfolio Charts & Hedged Bonds

Just a quick query. Was wondering how to best model a portfolio containing hedged international bonds. For example, if you live in Australia and wanted to model 50/50 Developed World TSM & Dev World IT, would setting the home country to USA give a more accurate result due to the currency hedge? I d...
by Tyler
Thu May 13, 2021 10:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 4597

Re: PP-Inspired Portfolios

Kevin K. wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 9:33 am
Regarding the Wellesley/Gold combo: historically (and admittedly it's a brief one since GLD debuted in 2004)...
I've got your back.

https://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/v ... 33#p169763
by Tyler
Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dragon Portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 9655

Re: Dragon Portfolio

doodle wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:01 pm
Haven't heard how he proposes actually putting those into practice....
...Investing through his asset management firm that just happens to specialize in those particular assets.
by Tyler
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)
Replies: 22
Views: 6346

Re: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)

I've personally always had the bulk of my money at Fidelity and have had nothing but great experiences with them. To be fair, I've only needed to speak to someone maybe once or twice in the past 10 years. And while I had no wait, perhaps I was lucky or they've changed over time. But I will say that ...
by Tyler
Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs
Replies: 43
Views: 14574

Re: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs

Actually unless you are in the zero capital gains tax bracket as little as a 2% dividend over the long term wipes out the lower capital gains rates and fund turnover makes it even worse in the taxable account That's true. But it's helpful to keep in mind that the 0% tax bracket for long-term capita...
by Tyler
Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:14 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Satellite views of some vaults
Replies: 11
Views: 4377

Re: Satellite views of some vaults

I Shrugged wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:00 am
None of these are Fort Knox.

Getting some ideas?

Image
by Tyler
Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement
Replies: 46
Views: 10720

Re: Drawdown phase of a PP in retirement

So 1970 was not one of the worst outcome time frames for a retiree spending down if you are trying to find the worst outcome to measure pass or fail I totally agree. I'm not talking about only looking at retirements starting in 1970. I'm talking about looking at every retirement year since 1970. Th...