AgAuMoney, What is your best guess on what the average dividend growth of your stocks if you held them for 10 years.  I know this is only a guess, but you must think you can grow income faster than 10% on average.  Proctor & Gamble appears to have done 11.5% for 19 years.  After losses and mista...

AgAuMoney, Brilliant!! This is the way investing should be.  My son-in-law agrees 100%.  If you can look past the up and big downs, it's the way to go.  No bonds, no cash; just increasing dividends.  Why trust bonds out 30 years for a fixed yield?  I looked at VTI, a 2% yield now.  If you look back ...

I think Medium Tex and Pointedstick hold EDV in some percentage to TLT.  My question is how do you rebalance and what is your band?  Do you rebalance each one or do you let the total tell you when to rebalance?  I am thinking of putting EDV in the PP.  Any help would be appreciated.  Anybody do some...

Yep. If I wanted total world stock ownership and no hassles I'd use VT. VT only has 13.6% emerging market.  If the growth in 20 or 30 years is outside the developed nations than VT will lag vs the Professor. His allocation is probably +3% to +4% over SPY for 30 or 40 years?? If you are young and ca...

Take a look at VT, it takes the guess work out of "own the world" Yep. If I wanted total world stock ownership and no hassles I'd use VT. VT only has 13.6% emerging market.  If the growth in 20 or 30 years is outside the developed nations than VT will lag vs the Professor. His allocation ...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000146806&play=1

Maybe 1/3 VTI  1/3 EEM  1/3 EFA

I'm waiting until close of markets Monday to adjust what I posted. There is the readership that wants returns posted early, and my own experience that Morningstar, etc. move the final numbers around as funds report final results for the year. That's why I put this in the early post now: I am hoping...

The book has different numbers and I would like to know their source.  Table 3.1 on page 17 has very different numbers.  Am I missing something? We were using data from the Ibbotson SBBI Yearbook. All the data was licensed from Morningstar to ensure it was consistent with the benchmarks the industr...

The annual average BLS numbers seem to match the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.  Most years are reporting the same % increase.  I am looking at several time periods.  The one of interest to me is 1973-1980 when we had high inflation.  I sorry, but I can't seem to get the numbers in PP book to ...

The three kids have finished Craig & M.T.'s PP book and we may have one new follower.  In the past I have used the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis as our official site for cost of living in the U.S.  http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm? I have told the...

M.T.  Would you define Historical norm for me. 9% or so average annual returns with no large losses along the way. One losing year will happen from time to time, but if I saw back to back losing years with what looked like a third losing year unfolding I would probably reassess the strategy.  It wo...

M.T.  Would you define Historical norm for me. 

I am in retirement also.  For me, cash serves the purpose of lowering the possible draw down of the total portfolio. If we get a 2% or 3% spike in interest rates or have a another tight money recession cash will be the only asset that does not decline in value.  The second purpose of cash, is to be ...

I do!  In just one WORD he got it right!  For Craigr his bogey was 3%-4%.  WOW!  I have never known what I wanted out of investments. But the word BOGEY set my mind on REAL RETURNS and I do appreciate it so much. 

I track a "theoretical" PP consisting of VTI, GLD, TLT, and SHY, with monthly rebalancing and including all published dividends.  For the past 12 months my data says this has returned 6.34%., with individual returns of VTI: 16.45% GLD: 6.6% TLT: 2.41% SHY: 0.25% Morningstar (according to ...

Anyone willing to consider the concept of an Expanded Portfolio?

http://www.aaii.com/asset-allocation/ar ... t-the-mold

Gumby,

Wow!  That chart is a lot of good work.  Thank you so much.  Please check me on this but the quick look is that PP did approx. 4.6% real and the S&P 500 did 5.2% real over 41 years!  I did pass this chart around to a new married friend and to my three children. 

 

Clive, Just a quick look, but did you find a black hole?  Silver did a number of down years and I wonder if you looked at an annual rebalance and what the result would do to the averages.  Also it looks like you would have been a winner during the great Depression in the 1930's with all your monies ...

Clive

The table that goes back to 1929 has Inf in it.  What asset class is Inf?

Clive, is there any method not to run out of money in retirement? The 3X products may have some DECAY?  Only Clive or Wonk or maybe others could offer a guess as to what the decay may be over long time periods.  But assume you are in the withdrawal state for maybe 12 years plus 4 years in long-term ...

Interactive Brokers is offering to split the lending fee with their customers.  The split is 50%.  They will not lend out your securities unless you sign on to the program.  It is my understanding most Brokers lend out your securties if you have a margin account and do not require your approval.  An...

Lone Wolf, Wow, how'd that happen?  30-year rates were up something like 200 basis points in 1981.  I'd have thought that would bring on a large enough capital loss to surely keep LT's negative in '81. I don't remember the exact details but my boss retired with 100% of his money in tax free Munis.  ...

Clive, I think you may on your way to building a super brick Sh*t house in Arkansas.  I would love to have 75% in cash and only have 8.3% in BGU and 8.3% in TMF and 8.3 in UGLD if it would do one time PP. I was going to post this on the thread that Medium Tex started by asking will there be another ...

Wonk,

On a collective portfolio I got the same numbers that you did: 1X=4.03, 2X=7.3 & 3X=10.1. WOW!  I probably will never understand why this tracks.

Wonk, I went to Yahoo Historical prices.  I looked at the period Oct. 17, 2011 to Feb. 15, 2012.  GLD was 162.62 and went to 168.11 for a 3.3% increase.  UGL was 92.24 and went to 95.81 for a 3.9% increase.  UGLD was 50.10 and went to 51.38 for a 2.6% increase.  The 3/ product UGLD should be up 9.9%...