Managing around the edges has little to no effect on returns but it certainly can benefit psychologically. 1M portfolio, 30% stocks (300K). Sell 5% (15K) to cash and restore asset allocation. A 20% decline on the 5% (3K). Your timely move only resulted in a savings of 3K or .3% of your portfolio. Y...

As I establish my first portfolio in October, I ask the following: 1) What would the capital gain be on the 10 Year Treasury if we experience zero interest rates? 2) The capital gain on the 30 Year Treasury? Kevin, if you bought new Treasury bonds for $1,000 each on October 1, 2015, these are the y...

If stocks, bonds, and gold are all up, perhaps cash is at less than 25%. You might want to consider selling whatever has gone up the most to rebalance cash to 25%. That way you are not rebalancing completely, but just skimming a little off the top. Profit taking.

barrett wrote: ... if the intent is to carry the swing comedian crowd, Louis CK is probably a good pick.

That would be interesting:

Louis C.K.: 'Insane bigot' Donald Trump 'is Hitler'

So, less than two months ago, the Japanese long bond was about where the German Bund is now. The yield has plunged to .292 in less than 60 days. Can one of you bondy, mathy types run some numbers on what kind of bond returns a Japanese investor would have gotten so far this year? If you don't want ...

Uncork the champagne!  According to peaktotrough.com, the PP started on January 1 1972 with 35/15 bands and reinvested dividends reached its all-time high (nominally) yesterday, surmounting the previous peak established on February 2 last year.  Hopefully, your portfolio is at its all-time high, too...

TennPaGa, can you provide some further explanation about what your graph shows?  Five-year returns?  Daily data?  What does the current value of 12.5 represent?

Thanks for the correction. I think I should also point out that the taxable gain in a taxable account is only the proportion of a sale that is actually gain, not the whole sale. In other words (assuming I'm doing the calculation right this time), if your gold goes up from $25 to $41 and you sell $1...

Say you start with $25 in each of four investments, and one of them grows to $35; assuming the others don't change, then you will have a total of $110. Not quite: $35 out of $110 is only 32%.  Gold would have to increase to about $41 to become 35% of $116 (41 + 3*25).  Rebalancing would reset each ...

It surely must feel good to see the PP roaring back to life.  Budd, try to remember this the next time the stock market points skyward while the PP plods along at its snails pace. I checked YTD, 12, 24, and 36 month returns of the PP vs VTI on etfreplay.  These numbers are quite instructive: YTD:  ...

Update: This thought just occurred to me. Maybe it's already out there somewhere but a good idea for an article on the internet would be "Sports Superstars who went out in a blaze of glory". If Peyton Manning wins the super bowl he'll be close to the top of the list but I'm having a hard ...

Ah, it's getting clearer: you are using GEM merely as an indicator for timing your change in assets between stocks and cash. Faber's chart appears at first glance to suggest that a momentum PP is vastly superior to a vanilla PP, but on second look I don't see much difference during the 1970s or from...

MediumTex provided a similar response here: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/permanent-portfolio-discussion/ultra-low-negative-interest-rates-in-germany/msg140483/#msg140483 The message seems to be that changes in yield will lead to greater volatility in bond prices in low-interest-rate environm...

That's why I find Chart 8 to be so impressive: smoother growth, smaller drawdowns, and higher CAGR! Does anyone know how exactly to implement a 7% target risk PP?  How is the volatility calculated?  It seems that only the percentage of treasury bills was varied in that Japan example; stocks, bonds, ...

Thanks for the quick response.  It seems like my understanding of the process was close.  You didn't address the GEM concept.  Would you advise ever owning international stocks or a total bond market fund in place of US stocks?  That seems to go against the HBPP principles. Using Absolute Momentum t...

A nice read to study how an Japanisation of the Economy could effect the Permanent Portfolio. http://gestaltu.com/2012/09/the-permanent-portfolio-turns-japanese.html/ The article also explores a few more rebalancing mechanism such as moving average and recent volatility. Haven't budd or ghost or so...

A nice read to study how an Japanisation of the Economy could effect the Permanent Portfolio. http://gestaltu.com/2012/09/the-permanent-portfolio-turns-japanese.html/ The article also explores a few more rebalancing mechanism such as moving average and recent volatility. Haven't budd or ghost or so...

PS, I don't think any of the products you listed (BPA, CFCs, lead paint) were developed with the knowledge that they have adverse effects.  But there was no FDA-equivalent demanding testing, at the time, to find out.  In hindsight, yeah, a lot of those things suck and should be removed from the mark...

Two days ago I was in the process of posting a similar question about fees at Fidelity when I noticed this part in their commissions pdf: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Brokerage_Commissions_Fee_Schedule.pdf [img width=500]http://i.imgur.com/wKCYuIj.jpg[/img] So a...

No, you clearly say it yourself. The money doesn't disappear. The money was given to someone else when you bought your stock or house or whatever, it was never destroyed. Then when you sell, you receive someone else's money. Paying off credit is the only way currency can be destroyed. I agree.  Let...

What is lower at Schwab, free trade SGOL (high expense ratio) or low expense ratio IAU but commission trade? The trading fee at Schwab is $8.95 and the expense ratios of IAU and SGOL are 0.25 and 0.39%, respectively.  That means you would pay 0.14% more to hold SGOL that you would IAU -- each year....

Another way of looking at it is that rebalance bands should be tightened when LTT yields get lower.  Or that LTTs should make up a greater percentage of the PP to magnify the effect of their lower volatility.  Does that make sense? Great post, Pet Hog, but you lost me at the very end. When yields a...

As LTT rates approach zero, there is less and less upside potential.  Without using fancy bond price equations, I look at it this way: Right now US 30-year treasury bonds have a yield of 2.83%.  $1000 compounded over 30 years at this rate would equal $2310 eventually.  If yields went down to zero, s...

frugal wrote: Hello fellows,

every year we had Mr.Craig Rowland's analyzes and now we don't have it anymore.

I am sad 

Craig Rowland come back, please.

Regards.

Frugal:  In case you missed it, Kriegsspiel and I posted our calculations of the PP's returns in 2015 here.

Why would you want to do that? Because they are the most volatile. Also, as Mark stated above, "your yield is delivered as LT capital gains instead of interest." Consider two 30-year treasury bonds currently available at Fidelity: (A) Maturity 2/15/2045; coupon 2.50%; ask price: $903.91/b...