that is my point. there are good and bad times that hypothetically someone may need money that is in long term investments. my example is merely pointing out as conservative as the pp is if you need the money at a bad time it does not mean your investment is risky . my portfolio can be quite volatil...

we can get hit with an astroid too. that is why i keep saying a portfolio needs to be flexible . it needs to hold assets better suited for the world around  it . it needs to change and adapt as the world changes. been my style for almost 30 years through crashes , wars , and the financial collapse o...

i don't but  except for about 15% of my investments i stick here .  i had no interest in overseas up until this week .  i have not had much money overseas  since the down turn .

Read that second paragraph again.  Job loss (often coinciding with market crashes, BTW), buying a home, medical bills -- there are tons of good reasons to withdraw money that have nothing to do with timing or pucker factor.  And don't forget survivorship bias in these long-term analyses.  40% of th...

well if we never had a period longer than 15 years to date where at some point you couldn't sell diversified funds at a profit  how is it anything other than investors acting badly if they lost money ? they either mismatched time frames , were overly invested for the pucker factor or just tried to t...

Yes, but a 70 yr old would still have 30% in a 60/40 type vehicle which would probably be doing quite nicely in that scenario. may be , not all glide paths follow that . some may be more ,some may be less and some may have no equity's . as far as doing well ?  , if they are retired and  30% equity ...

Reub wrote: And if bonds are toxic and gold is tepid at best then how can the PP stay profitable? Equities cannot make up for it. No way!

i think a conservative mix of equity's and  low interest rate sensitize bond funds are the way to go for a few years . then  review  when conditions change.

Mathjak, you're a breath of fresh air around here. There are just too many Kool-Aid drinkers around. Questioning the basics is stimulating and healthy. Please keep it up. Btw, may I ask what your line of work is? Just curious. Thanks! motor control and factory automation specialist , at least for 1...

forget comparing 10 years or even 15 years ,you may as well  compare daily . Then why have you been posting reminders about TLT's recently poor daily performance? You seem to have different rules for stocks and everything else. because tlt is not a stock , it could see a very very long term up cycl...

i only tell it like i see it . i don't accept myth folk lore or mis-information passed from one ill informed person to another . i question everything and most important i follow most of the top researchers today so i can learn . believing your own bull-sh%t can leave you quite far from what you cou...

You can't keep saying "as long as people are happy" and then follow-up with "but you are dooooomed". Feels like the religion thread  ;D i wouldn't say doomed , i would say can be doomed. the reality is that it does fall way short over the long haul over all climates we have had ...

You can't keep saying "as long as people are happy" and then follow-up with "but you are dooooomed". Feels like the religion thread  ;D i wouldn't say doomed , i would say can be doomed. the reality is that it does fall way short over the long haul over all climates we have had ...

forget comparing 10 years or even 15 years ,you may as well  compare daily . what you want to know is over a typical accumulation period spanning decades how did i compare by the end of the game  to other methods once all the cycles and events are done . my time frame would have left more than a mil...

even donuts may pan out better than gold has .  whats the risk there ?  you get cruller blind ?  lol

i am in total agreement that the pp is perfect to switch to 5- 10 years before retirement . as i stated many time it is to untested for my taste in retirement . prior to being 5 to 10 years the pp is a poor growth vehicle over the long term leading up to that time all you need is 20-30 years to mak...

they may end up severely under funded  for that luxury and that is the danger. You can't keep saying "as long as people are happy" and then follow-up with "but you are dooooomed". Feels like the religion thread  ;D i wouldn't say doomed , i would say can be doomed. the reality i...

they may end up severely under funded  for that luxury and that is the danger.

conventional growth models have blown the doors off the pp here . are you doubting that? Yes, obviously we are doubting that.  Yes, every scholar who has done research into this issue is doubting that.  "Growth models"!  Hah!  What the research shows is that a reliable "growth model,...

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all that matters is you are happy with the results.  as for me , i will keep maturities very short and not gamble heavy on rates . i rather place my bets on equity's than interest rates falling at this stage..

all you need is 20-30 years to make everything  smooth out  using  conventional investments This is just false. really ?. show us a 30 year time frame stocks were not a head in dollar terms where they were 30 years prior  regardless of evenst here in the usa  and wasn't a head of the pp with a stan...

i track my permanent portfolio i bought two weeks ago . it is down  23k  .

the new model i bought the same day before the big drop is only down 6800.00 on the same amount.

my VEU went from down 5% two days ago to down .78% this morning.  insane come back.

i agree . after the equal of a 350 point drop yesterday ,i see TLT is getting pounded again  with am equal of another 285 points as it falls 1.65% on top of the 2% yesterday.

that is a lot of pain to an asset  regardless of what it is

while i agree real returns count when talking average returns over periods of time unless you specifically are looking at inflation adjusted all averages are in nominal terms. you never see the market broadcasted in real return , only nominal . so to get back to the point the nominal returns of the ...

i am in total agreement that the pp is perfect to switch to 5- 10 years before retirement . as i stated many time it is to untested for my taste in retirement . prior to being 5 to 10 years the pp is a poor growth vehicle over the long term leading up to that time all you need is 20-30 years to make...