a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date .

67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with .

this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw

base rate is 1.86% so it is an assumption that the inflation kicker will generate the rest ..but lower inflation expectations will see that kicker fall

if it don’t sound right it usually aint. ha ha

you are correct .tips are not returning 4%. this whole premise is flawed. when i inquired in april about how tip returns are calculated because of the high yields posted , jack bowers from fidelity insight wrote me back Matt, When the SEC implemented a bunch of rules for reporting yield-to-maturity ...

the flaw here is there is still a considerable amount of sequence risk at work . it takes at least a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement for 4% inflation adjusted to hold . tips have performed poorly despite the higher inflation because of rising rates.. they may have a very ha...

TLT AT 105.75 as an average cost, down a little but considering it fell from 165 not down much.

long term holders got crushed

it just made sense to me that with rates having no where to go except up it was going to be an awful ride extending out maturity and durations . the only hope we had was really equities running with the ball and i always said that long term bonds would destroy most of the traction equities got well...

it just made sense to me that with rates having no where to go except up it was going to be an awful ride extending out maturity and durations . the only hope we had was really equities running with the ball and i always said that long term bonds would destroy most of the traction equities got well ...

Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference. :D O0 One of the finest episodes. that episode won many awards …not only was it really something that could have been easily censored in those days but it never used the actual word once for what they were betting on … wikipedia ...

when i try it , it says item not found

relatively new article from june 7th

https://pictureperfectportfolios.com/ra ... portfolio/

i will have to keep abreast of that interview (*)(*)

interestingly i found that over most time frames i looked at IEF beat the barbell of tlt and cash or tlt and shy .

i would have expected the extra volatility in tlt would have given it an edge but it was consistently slightly behind with a few exceptions

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 2:08 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 11:58 am 2060 futures
2050+ spot price (AJPM)
1PM EST

For the first time in a long while, gold is the best-performing asset YTD in the PP. It's even beating LASAGNE!

well now we have a total market fund or s&p fund up 10%. qqq up 31%

TLT UP 2.67

sgov 1.87

gold up 6.67

and sgov a

personally i wouldn’t take up valuable tax deferred space with bonds unless i thought i was going see capital gains from selling that may be high..

flipping or rebalancing tlt would warrant it .

at 3-4% interest ,not worth it to me taking up space

well we can’t predict what bonds will do but gold is now showing it is down monday because with the deal the thinking is the chances of rates rising just increased. so bonds can go either way tomorrow when we open …i thought the deal would be a good thing for them but after seeing gold this morning ...

my personal feeling is that if one wants TIPS and is a PP user i would not make them part of the PP bond holdings as they would suck in a recession or depression in comparison .. but nothing wrong holding them in the VP just like holding commodities on the side and not diluting the gold budget. unfo...

tyler looked in to them too

https://portfoliocharts.com/2022/09/27/ ... ectations/

i bonds have a different structure then tips , i bonds base rate doesn’t fall like tips does when rates go higher . tips barely beat out regular treasuries during this bought of inflation 2. Why have TIPS performed so poorly when inflation is so high? TIPS prices have fallen more than the principal ...

And yet about half of the time TIPS held to maturity are going to beat nominal treasuries of the same maturity, right? Not sure how the government manipulating inflation figures changes that. As kbg pointed out a while back, we don't seem to talk as much about government manipulation of inflation d...

i found interpreting the tips yields. on tips funds confusing so i wrote fidelity insight for a better explanation back in april . jack bowers replied When the SEC implemented a bunch of rules for reporting yield-to-maturity a few decades ago, inflation-protected bond funds didn’t exist. These funds...

it reminds me of a cross between bernsteins liability matching and ray lucia’s bucket system

i will check out the whole report . but it still doesn’t sit right with me ….gold has done better then bonds over most time frames since it has become main stream and used in quite a few portfolios … it is really a different animal today as proven by pretty much any time frame you can pick for almos...

i don’t follow the logic though of the insurance bucket with a 40 plus year duration as a retiree …. first off i wouldn’t say gold has a duration of 40 plus years . you can pick almost any time frame the last 25 years and equities and gold have beaten equities and bonds . so i fail to see the long d...