Search found 755 matches

by jhogue
Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 305198

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Let the buyer beware! Marilyn Cohen is promoting the sale of municipal and corporate bonds in this book. These are not suitable for the HBPP. 1. Anyone tempted to buy munis because they are free of federal, state, and local taxes should read up on Puerto Rico and Chicago or ask pug chief for a tutor...
by jhogue
Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 305198

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

See "Treasury Bond Buying Tutorial," the first thread under "Bonds"

or:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1670
by jhogue
Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 388648

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

Kriegsspiel, 1. Can’t think of one great president whose historical stature rested upon his relationship with the Supreme Court. Can you? 2. What is surprisingly missing from banisharma’s own analysis is the disappearing role of Congress. I find it amazing that our most republican of branches could ...
by jhogue
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Flying !st class with a free upgrade?
Replies: 17
Views: 9397

Re: Flying !st class with a free upgrade?

The cruise option is definitely pricey and scheduling is severely limited (1 trip/month), but I will absolutely keep it in mind for my next trip to Europe. I'd only use it for the outbound leg, which is where I try to get first class upgrades wherever possible. It is SO worth it: you get a seat tha...
by jhogue
Sat Jun 30, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 305198

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Talk to someone else at Schwab. I buy both LTTs and STTs through my Fidelity brokerage account. Fidelity's minimum bond purchase is $1,000. The Bond Desk will talk to you over the phone if you have questions. I think Vanguard has roughly the same deal. Even though Treasury bonds are liquid and can b...
by jhogue
Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 369174

Re: The Bond Dream Room

The only way 10y is going to 6% is if inflation is over 5%. Unlikely. And if it is, you will still want the PP. Aren’t rising home prices, medical expenses, and college tuition a form of inflation? Not if you are the US government and want to keep Social Security increases to a minimum. Actually, t...
by jhogue
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: vanguard vs fidelity
Replies: 28
Views: 27050

Re: vanguard vs fidelity

Following the bouncing ball here... if tax deferral is not an issue right now then is it best to buy I bonds or 1 yr t-bills or what? Thx I think of Cash as the most customized and personalized part of the HBPP. Both I bonds and and 1 yr T-bills are US Treasury issued debt, so they are equally as s...
by jhogue
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: vanguard vs fidelity
Replies: 28
Views: 27050

Re: vanguard vs fidelity

Hogue, you are to I-bonds what Mathjak is to Fidelity Insight. A relentless cheerleader. :P Nah, I actually think that I bonds are the worst form of Cash equivalent, except for all others. Besides, Medium Tex holds the tenured chair in I Bond Cheerleading. I still laugh to myself when I think about...
by jhogue
Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: vanguard vs fidelity
Replies: 28
Views: 27050

Re: vanguard vs fidelity

Tax simplification: yet another reason to buy I bonds! With I bonds, you get 30 years of tax deferral outside the increasing complications of an IRA. And that means no RMDs after age 70 ½. Besides that, in a rising interest rate environment a ladder of I bonds is the best guaranteed protection again...
by jhogue
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: vanguard vs fidelity
Replies: 28
Views: 27050

Re: vanguard vs fidelity

So the T-bills I purchased are zero coupon, i.e., they were sold at a discount and mature at $1000 in 3 months. Does anyone know if you hold these over Dec 31/Jan1, is there imputed interest that tax has to be paid on, or how does that work tax-wise? The IRS taxes phantom income on zero coupon bond...
by jhogue
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: vanguard vs fidelity
Replies: 28
Views: 27050

Re: vanguard vs fidelity

So the T-bills I purchased are zero coupon, i.e., they were sold at a discount and mature at $1000 in 3 months. Does anyone know if you hold these over Dec 31/Jan1, is there imputed interest that tax has to be paid on, or how does that work tax-wise? The IRS taxes phantom income on zero coupon bond...
by jhogue
Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Annuities?
Replies: 127
Views: 53076

Re: Annuities?

Cortopassi: 1. Terrific charts! So much for the notion that gold has been "dragging down" the HBPP. 2. I can identify with your feelings about living through the crash of 2008. I "stayed the course" while my stock heavy portfolio fell by 41%. I did not sell during that equity dep...
by jhogue
Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best Allocation: Living off just the interest
Replies: 30
Views: 19981

Re: Best Allocation: Living off just the interest

For cash ideas (not all PP pure I'm sure) -- http://www.mymoneyblog.com/best-interest-rates-cash-june-2018.html (Not MY money blog :) And at $20M total portfolio, might also look at Muni Money Market -- don't remember if they included that). Federal / Prime MM from VG better fory at my bracket even...
by jhogue
Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best Allocation: Living off just the interest
Replies: 30
Views: 19981

Re: Best Allocation: Living off just the interest

Interesting. Thanks JHogue. Dieter, I see you proposed a nicely diversified position within Cash, but I wonder if you will really be happy with only 10% Cash overall. Where will the $ come for a new car? big vacation?? unexpected medical bills or repairs??? And that is too say nothing about keeping...
by jhogue
Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best Allocation: Living off just the interest
Replies: 30
Views: 19981

Re: Best Allocation: Living off just the interest

What are T-bills paying? 1.7%? That's $340K a year on $20 mil. 1.7% before inflation or tax (at the highest bracket) IMHO seems pretty weak (no offense). Respectfully, it appears that everyone is just throwing in their 2 cents on what they would do with a large portfoilio... but that wasn’t at all ...
by jhogue
Thu May 31, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Annuities?
Replies: 127
Views: 53076

Re: Annuities?

i am a big believer in plan around what was , what is and what stands a reasonable chance of continuing then leave slack in the plan . we can paralyze ourselves with our own visions of every negative thing that can happen and hurt ourselves for really no reason . the biggest obstacle to our own fin...
by jhogue
Thu May 31, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best Allocation: Living off just the interest
Replies: 30
Views: 19981

Re: Best Allocation: Living off just the interest

If there are $20 million in the bank, I think you're past the point where it makes all that much difference. Put it all in stocks - you'll be fine through every downturn. Put it all in T-bills - you can live handsomely forever, guaranteed. I think you're way too quick to write off the 100% T-bill p...
by jhogue
Tue May 29, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Annuities?
Replies: 127
Views: 53076

Re: Annuities?

If you never spend down your assets, they you actually must be self-insuring.
by jhogue
Tue May 29, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Annuities?
Replies: 127
Views: 53076

Re: Annuities?

my dad was under care 24/7 for 5 years and it left his spouse impoverished . it just did not make sense to actually self insure . not when the partnership plans here are so great . i get 3 years of 400 a day increased 5% a year for a nursing home or 6 years of assisted living or in home care . but ...
by jhogue
Fri May 18, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Replies: 72
Views: 37406

Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

stuper1 wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 10:36 am Harry Browne -- agnostic about the future. Mathjak107 -- certain about the future.

Who am I going to believe?
Good question!
by jhogue
Fri May 18, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 369174

Re: The Bond Dream Room

dualstow,

If you have a big slug of cash headed for STTs, don't forget to consider sophie's "tax trickery." Just recently, I saw some high coupon (8-9%) 30 year T-bonds maturing in 1-2 years that would be good candidates.
by jhogue
Fri May 18, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Replies: 72
Views: 37406

Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

I don't see hard evidence that long term interest rates are rising significantly. Today (5/18/2018) Fidelity was showing 30 year T-bonds at 3.23%, an insignificant rise from the 2015 chart you posted.
by jhogue
Thu May 17, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 369174

Re: The Bond Dream Room

I bought TLT when I bought into the HBPP in 2013. Later that year, I converted that ETF to new 30 year Treasuries (original 3.75% coupon) by direct purchase from Fidelity. At the time, the consensus was that “interest rates have nowhere to go but up!” Last I checked, new 30 year Treasury bonds have ...
by jhogue
Thu May 17, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Safe Deposit Box Location
Replies: 34
Views: 21698

Re: Safe Deposit Box Location

I think the simplest thing you might do is to ask your local bank manager to explain what their contingency plan is for the kind of emergency you described. I had an interesting conversation somewhat along those lines with my local bank manager two years ago when they physically re-located my partic...
by jhogue
Thu May 17, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...
Replies: 72
Views: 37406

Re: Is the stock market getting too hot? Discuss...

mathjak,

I am not sure of the point of your last post and chart. Are you inferring that 30 year Treasury bond interest rates have no place to go but up?