Aren't you happy that it's up 5.7% in the last 12 months? Sure beats a savings account at the bank.

Keep in mind though that a PP has historically suffered drawdowns as much as 20% or more, so it's definitely not as safe as a savings account.

Cmon, Budd, you have posted your overall portfolio many times. Mine is a lot closer to a PP than yours. The lesson I have learned from the PP is to keep a good percentage in LTTs and gold -- i.e., at least 10 to 15%, enough to actually make a difference -- because those things are either negatively ...

60/40 12-month return is 9.9% Stocks have been on a 10 year tear, so of course the PP has been lagging. A 60/40 or 70/30 isn't going to look very good if we hit another 10-year stretch like 1998 to 2008. I know for me personally that having so many down years over that time frame would make it very ...

I just went to etefreplay.com. Over the last 12 months, the PP is up 5.7%. Year to date, the PP is down 0.8%, which is exactly the same as a 60/40 stock/bond fund. I'm baffled by the angst in this thread.

Are there rebalancing rules?

Is this a thing where you check once a month but only trade if your absolute momentum signal changes or if you need to rebalance?

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.

I think what we are looking at is probabilities. Most likely the 70/30 is going to out-perform the PP over a 15-year time frame, but there is a chance that it won't. Do I really want to take that chance? Harry Browne was very smart when he said to hold the PP with the money that you can't afford to ...

It really doesn't take zen. When the PP experiences a drop, compare the current drop to drops that have happened in the past using a back-testing tool like portfoliovisualizer.com. If the current drop is no larger than drops that have happened previously, then shrug your shoulders and find something...

If your PP is your emergency fund, then maybe that is why you are so worried about short-term dips. Historically, the PP as an overall portfolio has had drawdowns as much as 20% or more, so I'm not sure that a PP is meant to be an emergency fund. On the other hand, it should be okay to view the cash...

Budd, what is your time horizon for possibly needing to withdraw money from your portfolio?

Whatever term applies to Obama's portrait, it should be very interesting to see what Trump's portrait looks like. I'd lay better than even odds that Obama won't hold the title of wackiest portrait for more than 8 years. At least Trump will make sure his portrait is made by Americans (oh, the racist ...

Would the term "special snowflake" apply here?

I propose a portfolio which is a traditional permanent portfolio mix with a bitcoin variable portfolio sidecar. Hows: 24% gold 24% cash 24% stocks 24% long term bonds 4% bitcoin Turns out the back testing is amazing. Sure, the backtesting of that portfolio would be amazing at this point. It would b...

Sophie, I checked out your suggestion at portfoliovisualizer.com using VTSMX for stocks, VBMFX for total bond market, VFITX for intermediate Treasuries, and VUSTX for long Treasuries. The data sets go back to 1993. Using a 60/40 split to stocks and bonds, the CAGR with total bonds is 8.40%, with int...

Kriegsspiel wrote:The PP has a 'duration' of longer than 5 days.

Could you please explain what that means. I'm slow. Thanks!

Thanks for that great, enlightening, comforting post, Sophie!

I thought you said earlier that you only have 7.5% in gold. That seems like a very modest allocation. I myself feel that 25% gold is too much. I'm aiming for about 15%, with about 2/3 of that in physical as black-swan insurance and 1/3 paper gold for re-balancing.

Exactly, don't forget the historical results. We haven't seen anything with the PP that is outside the bounds of historical results. Over the medium- to long-term, however, the results are pretty good. Maybe not as good as a stock-heavy portfolio, but definitely less volatile and more consistent, wh...

I'm sure those international stock funds do nothing but go up forever, and never go down.

Budd, do you ever look at historical PP returns? As with any portfolio, the PP has times when it has drawdowns. The difference to most portfolios is that the drawdowns are smaller and less time is required to recover from them. Gold/bonds don't necessarily help the PP on the very day that stocks dro...

I think if you backtest the PP using 10-year Treasuries instead of 30-year Treasuries, there is not a whole lot of difference in the results.

I've trimmed back a little in stocks and moved it to cash to make myself more comfortable. Currently at about 38% in stocks overall.

Moda, I agree with everything you just posted. I guess I'm just slow. For me, it took this whole Trump thing for the scales to drop off my eyes. So even though he's an odious slimeball, I'm thankful for that. Also, I agree with some of his policies regardless of his personal likeability or lack ther...

I saw this comment posted on unz.com today and agree with it 100%: "The most important thing Trump may have accomplished is unmasking the media hypocrisy and its sheer contempt towards 80% of the country. I used to believe that the journalists were reasonable people who tried to report fairly b...

Hmmm, I wonder, has Mexico ever meddled in US elections? Has anyone ever raised a stink about that? How about Israel?