Search found 2751 matches

by Tortoise
Sat Aug 27, 2011 6:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Japanese Unemployment Rate
Replies: 30
Views: 9860

Re: Japanese Unemployment Rate

Tortoise: "That's impressive, but if automation is indeed allowing us to produce more stuff more efficiently across the entire economy, then most people's standard of living should be steadily rising as a result." That would only be true if those efficiency gains got distributed out to &q...
by Tortoise
Sat Aug 27, 2011 2:19 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Japanese Unemployment Rate
Replies: 30
Views: 9860

Re: Japanese Unemployment Rate

My understanding is the main reason for underemployment is automation.  Many tasks can now be done with far less human capital than before.  For example, I work in the chemical industry, and, roughly speaking, at my company we put out 50% more pounds of stuff with 50% less people than we did 15 yea...
by Tortoise
Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:20 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Rebalancing gold
Replies: 19
Views: 11453

Re: Rebalancing gold

This is why I really hope a low-expense-ratio (< 0.3%, say) HB PP ETF or mutual fund is offered someday (PRPFX is okay, but its expense ratio is much higher than it needs to be, and it's not the pure HB PP). The DIY approach is fun for a lot of folks--including me--but for most people it simply prod...
by Tortoise
Wed Aug 24, 2011 2:25 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Warren Buffet Wants Less Coddling
Replies: 34
Views: 10425

Re: Warren Buffet Wants Less Coddling

I don't see any option to fixing the tax code, eliminating loopholes and corporate welfare, and ultimately raising total government tax revenue. There is at least one other option to increasing taxes: scale back the role of government. Of course, this is an age-old debate that's sure to incite a fl...
by Tortoise
Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Warren Buffet Wants Less Coddling
Replies: 34
Views: 10425

Re: Warren Buffet Wants Less Coddling

Buffet has some buddies in Europe who seem to want more taxes too: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44239500/ I think they realize that systemic collapse will be worse for their fortunes than a slight raise in taxes. So when a small group of super-wealthy people voluntarily asks the government to take more m...
by Tortoise
Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?
Replies: 36
Views: 25131

Re: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?

I don't have any tungsten coins, but I think it would be interesting to use the free Audacity software to perform a ring test on both American Eagles and Krugerrands and compare the peaks in their audio spectra. I may stop by my safety deposit box this week and pick up a couple of my coins to do tha...
by Tortoise
Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:01 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?
Replies: 36
Views: 25131

Re: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?

I wonder if a "ring test" might be useful for detecting coin fakes? Canadian quarters minted in 1967 are either 80% silver or 50% silver, and one way to determine the difference (that seems to work very well) is to record the sounds of a dropped coin and examine the peaks on an audio freq...
by Tortoise
Sun Aug 21, 2011 3:54 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?
Replies: 36
Views: 25131

Re: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?

I am not a metallurgist, but in the process of obtaining my engineering degree I had to take a fair number of chemistry and physics courses. What you are proposing, WildAboutHarry, would violate the definition of the word density. Density is defined simply as mass divided by volume. So if you create...
by Tortoise
Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?
Replies: 36
Views: 25131

Re: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?

Maple Leafs et al. are pure gold, while American Eagles, Krugerrands, Double Eagles, etc. are alloyed gold. It has been too long since chemistry, but while pure tungsten might have similar properties to pure gold, would an alloy of tungsten be easily matched to alloyed gold coins? Yes, I think it w...
by Tortoise
Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Jim Cramer 2006 interview, details his hedge fund fraudulent behavior
Replies: 2
Views: 1622

Re: Jim Cramer 2006 interview, details his hedge fund fraudulent behavior

This is why I have learned never to act on anyone's investment advice based on their reputation or track record alone. I must first understand the logical reasoning behind their advice. Reputations and track records can be faked. Logic cannot. I wasn't converted to the PP based on Harry Browne's rep...
by Tortoise
Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?
Replies: 36
Views: 25131

Re: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?

Thanks for the info, guys. It appears that tungsten may be too brittle to strike as a coin, but if encased in an outer layer of softer metal (like gold itself), could easily be struck as a coin. The existence of ultrasound equipment--and perhaps other sophisticated techniques--does not necessarily e...
by Tortoise
Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:32 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?
Replies: 36
Views: 25131

Re: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?

I have heard that tungsten is a popular filler for gold bars. However, something about its properties makes it harder to fake an intricate gold coin. Perhaps it is too brittle. One more reason to stick with American Eagle coins... Where did you get that piece of information regarding the difficulty...
by Tortoise
Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Anti-Science
Replies: 61
Views: 21812

Re: The Anti-Science

doodle wrote: Ronald Reagan even realized this to some degree. I think he gave a number of speeches at the UN where he wished that aliens would invade the Earth so that humans could put their petty differences behind them and join together.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOJxqJe_ZuA
by Tortoise
Fri Aug 19, 2011 9:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?
Replies: 36
Views: 25131

Re: Verifying Gold Coins Are Real?

It seems like the caliper/scale method would only work if one assumes the entire interior of the coin consists of a single metal. If the counterfeiter used an alloy having exactly the same density as gold, the caliper/scale method would fail to detect that. For example, according to the list of elem...
by Tortoise
Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:39 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is a hedge against deflation?
Replies: 9
Views: 4999

Re: Gold is a hedge against deflation?

I see what you're saying, Melveyr. Part of the subtlety in this discussion of how gold should perform in inflationary and deflationary environments is that there seems not to be a clear consensus--even among professional economists--on how inflation and deflation should even be defined. Austrian eco...
by Tortoise
Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:04 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold is a hedge against deflation?
Replies: 9
Views: 4999

Re: Gold is a hedge against deflation?

I think you are correct: gold is an instability hedge. It's probably not accurate to say that gold is solely an inflation hedge, or solely a deflation hedge, or even both. Instability is the key. That is a subtlety about gold that really didn't sink in for me until the past couple of years. Seeing t...
by Tortoise
Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: James Bond = Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 3977

James Bond = Permanent Portfolio

It just occurred to me that James Bond is a cleverly crafted metaphor for the Permanent Portfolio. First and most obviously, we have his name: Bond... Long-Term Bond? Next, we have the fact that James Bond is a SPY. The S&P 500 ETF SPY. A clear reference to the PP's stock piece. Then, there's Mi...
by Tortoise
Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: unreal example of friend's 401k, Vanguard index funds with low exp ratios
Replies: 11
Views: 5059

Re: unreal example of friend's 401k, Vanguard index funds with low exp ratios

cabronjames wrote: Has anyone ever seen expense ratios this low, period?  Even crazier, this low in a work 401k account?
I have now :)

It makes sense, given the huge minimum investment amounts for those institutional funds. It's kind of like getting a really good deal when you buy in bulk.
by Tortoise
Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Happy 40th Fiat Day!
Replies: 8
Views: 3589

Re: Happy 40th Fiat Day!

Make a wish!

Image
by Tortoise
Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: China
Replies: 121
Views: 42284

Re: China

MediumTex wrote: What would be REALLY good, though, would be an episode about the connection between aliens and long term treasuries.   :D
It appears that aliens are not pleased with the low yields on LTTs right now.
by Tortoise
Mon Aug 15, 2011 5:52 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 65
Views: 18881

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

I never said accounting is "petty," nor did I ever intend to imply that. And I fully agree that money (whether fiat, gold-backed, or free-market) is an absolute necessity for a modern economy. It would be absurd to suggest otherwise. The authors of the paper "Where Profits Come From&q...
by Tortoise
Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Suicide Portfolio
Replies: 136
Views: 46340

Re: The Suicide Portfolio

Week 9 results. The last couple of weeks of punishing losses and volatility in the stock market have been like sweet manna from heaven to most of our suicide portfolios! Now only two of the eight portfolios remain in the black! l82start's Bankrupt Bankroll, a fetid puddle of toxic penny stocks, is s...
by Tortoise
Sat Aug 13, 2011 5:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Kicking the TV Habit
Replies: 46
Views: 13395

Re: Kicking the TV Habit

The successor to cheap fossil fuels will be expensive fossil fuels.  Bet on it. In one of HB's radio shows, I recall that he expressed skepticism regarding the fears of the peak-oil crowd. He actually suggested that there might be something to the hypothesis of abiogenic petroleum . He didn't menti...
by Tortoise
Sat Aug 13, 2011 4:07 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 65
Views: 18881

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

Think of the income statement of the entire global corporate sector as one entity. They pay out wages, these wages are an expense on their income statement. Even if all of these wages turned into revenue, that would still not be enough to turn a profit. This vastly oversimplified view that profits ...
by Tortoise
Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:06 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 65
Views: 18881

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

Moda, thanks for the link. Is it even a MMT biased document though? Would Loan Wolf or Tortoise actually dispute the excerpt below? I guess Tortoise would argue that firms will view falling profits today as a sign of a reversal to come in due course. I do often point out that the economy has inhere...