Search found 61 matches

by perfect_simulation
Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 30280

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:27 pm
HB liked growth stocks specifically, because of how they are bid up during bull markets.
Additionally, HB said that interest rates are low during times of Prosperity. And growth stocks benefit the most in that environment.
by perfect_simulation
Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 9297

Re: 2022 PP predictions

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:10 am
….nothing is standing up
I see the dollar going up. Other assets are cheaper to buy now
by perfect_simulation
Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 9297

Re: 2022 PP predictions

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:46 am
every day seems to put the pp further behind the inflation curve
HB said in his podcast that gold won't move on mild inflation. When inflation sustains 7% or 9% or higher, then gold will take off. And of course you need to own it before this happens...which all PPer's are.
by perfect_simulation
Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:30 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Value vs growth
Replies: 10
Views: 4711

Re: Value vs growth

HB originally recommended Growth so thats my horse. 25% VUG baby
by perfect_simulation
Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dip Buying the PP
Replies: 5
Views: 1771

Re: Dip Buying the PP

Maybe set your rebalance bands tighter so you are rebalancing more often, and not necessarily when you emotionally think it's a good time is my suggestion. Like today...stocks look like a good buy, but you never know. There's a whole weekend for this new variant news to get potentially worse. Perso...
by perfect_simulation
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dip Buying the PP
Replies: 5
Views: 1771

Dip Buying the PP

Does anyone have any thoughts or strategies for dip buying the PP? I usually move a portion of my paycheck into my PP account, but I have no problem waiting for a day when stocks, bonds, and gold are down to buy. it just feels too good not to do it that way. 8) I'll add that I don't really pay atten...
by perfect_simulation
Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 29296

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:18 pm
Still in it to win it
Permanent at 4:00

https://youtu.be/C08Vz9DTddk
He totally said 25% bitcoin/gold before. Now he says hes not long or short bitcoin.....interesting
by perfect_simulation
Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 29296

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

He mentions the PP again 7/17/2021

https://youtu.be/VvoDkfRj-jY?t=230
by perfect_simulation
Sat Jul 03, 2021 7:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HB spotted on 4chan
Replies: 4
Views: 2176

HB spotted on 4chan

Image

Also, Doug Casey mentioned HB in a discussion with Rick Rule this week:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMO603IAmN8&t=1235s
by perfect_simulation
Sat Jun 26, 2021 12:43 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Falling yields
Replies: 36
Views: 13120

Re: Falling yields

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Jun 25, 2021 12:43 pm
Women in the US nowadays prefer to build careers rather than families.
So deflation? The end is nigh.
by perfect_simulation
Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:20 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why isn't gold moving?
Replies: 69
Views: 22268

Re: Why isn't gold moving?

The fact that gold hasn't moved indicates to me that inflation isn't here. Meanwhile, rising interest rates put pressure on gold because gold doesn't pay you to own it
by perfect_simulation
Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Using Zeroes for LTT
Replies: 6
Views: 2779

Re: Using Zeroes for LTT

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:17 am
Zeros can be a lot more volatile....
This is true. Interestingly 18% EDV in the PP is equivalent to 25% TLT, this actually frees up 7% that could be diverted to cash or reits or some other asset not typically found in the PP
by perfect_simulation
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Forex Diversification
Replies: 4
Views: 2194

Forex Diversification

of 25% cash, I am considering keeping 5% in different currencies. I couldn't find any HB thoughts on this, he advocated the dollar because of its reserve status. The Euro is considered to be the 2nd reserve currency, and you can pick up shares of FXE to get Euro exposure. And maybe some FXC for Cana...
by perfect_simulation
Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 29296

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:46 am
bitcoin is an asset
good points, but its called cryptocurrency not cryptoasset ;D
by perfect_simulation
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 29296

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:24 pm
All value is still subjective though, which is the point Im trying to make to perfect_simulation.
yeah, my core thought is where bitcoin fits into the PP - I think the cash quadrant if any and not the gold one O0
by perfect_simulation
Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 29296

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

I can't quite wrap my head around bitcoin being an asset like gold. Gold is a tangible commodity that also happens to be money. Bitcoin is a fiat currency in my mind - backed by nothing like the dollar and euro, etc. Might as well have some for diversification, buts its akin to cash IMHO!
by perfect_simulation
Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 29296

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Kevin K. wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm
Yeah and emerging market stocks instead of TSM and bank loans instead of bonds. Nothing remotely PP-esque about this guy IMHO.
Banks loans? He said 25% cash and 25% long term bonds. The odd parts were 25% bitcoin/gold and 25% emerging markets/asia stocks
by perfect_simulation
Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 47
Views: 29296

Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Jeffrey Gundlach promotes his PP @ 18:30

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd6zu-xylqo
by perfect_simulation
Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:53 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 68
Views: 22245

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

I think there probably is some gold flowing to bitcoin. A lot of traditional investors view Gold/Bitcoin as insurance, not strictly as an inflation hedge.

In my view bitcoin is a currency like cash, although without the backing of a government. Of 25% cash, I put 2.5% into crypto.
by perfect_simulation
Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP* Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 3859

Re: PP* Portfolio

Even the Golden Butterfly is a 80%/20% PP/VP with small-caps in the VP.
Hmm, good point. Perhaps I am underestimating the VP
by perfect_simulation
Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP* Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 3859

Re: PP* Portfolio

Matthew19 wrote:
Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:19 pm
Can this be back tested?
In my testing, PP* is ~2% over or under whatever the vanilla PP does so nothing drastic
by perfect_simulation
Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP* Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 3859

Re: PP* Portfolio

the cash is also acting as an option , to buy assets that have fallen at a later date , except unlike options , cash has no expiration date . cash is also the other side of the barbel that balances out duration on the long term treasuries to something in the intermediate term range . you no longer ...
by perfect_simulation
Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP* Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 3859

PP* Portfolio

The vanilla PP is a perfect concept, but I see 2 modifications that enhance it (based on what Harry said). I call it PP* 25% Growth Stocks (eg, VUG, SPG, SCHG) - Harry said that stocks do well in times of prosperity. In times of prosperity he said that interest rates are often low and the economy ex...
by perfect_simulation
Wed Dec 09, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: USD exposure in the PP
Replies: 5
Views: 2204

Re: USD exposure in the PP

In the 25% stock portion, Harry recommended having 3 different stock funds in case one of the funds screwed up. I see nothing wrong with applying that logic to cash as well. You could easily do a 50/50 USD CAD and rebalance as normal since you can't predict the future :D
by perfect_simulation
Wed Dec 09, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Talk on the PP
Replies: 9
Views: 3089

Re: Talk on the PP

He says we've been in a stock/bond bull run for 40 years so the PP did really well. But now stocks and bonds are fully valued so its not a great strategy. Problem is, who knows exactly if (and when) that's true. PP 100% full steam ahead!