Search found 3353 matches

by ochotona
Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New tail risk ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 8526

Re: New tail risk ETF

Saf-er than shorting a bear market. Not safe like a Treasury bond!

As with all new ETFs... you watch, and don't buy. I will like to see how it does relative to simpler hedges like US Treasuries during the next bear market.
by ochotona
Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New tail risk ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 8526

New tail risk ETF

"The Cambria Tail Risk ETF seeks to mitigate significant downside market risk. The Fund intends to invest in a portfolio of “out of the money” put options purchased on the U.S. stock market. TAIL strategy offers the potential advantage of buying more puts when volatility is low and fewer puts when v...
by ochotona
Fri Apr 07, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1658153

Re: The GOLD scream room

Gold sure doesn't have any lasting "crisis alpha" the way people imagine
by ochotona
Fri Apr 07, 2017 5:18 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1658153

Re: The GOLD scream room

thisisallen wrote:Didn't you just buy at $1200?

What is the 200MA number?
I want to buy more... 200 day ma was resistance, I think gold has punched through it. Whether it stays up is the question
by ochotona
Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1658153

Re: The GOLD scream room

ochotona wrote:Come on, $1200 dang it!
Awww, cruise missiles? No!!!

But the real story will be if gold can't hold the 200 day MA even if cruise missiles are flying around.
by ochotona
Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1658153

Re: The GOLD scream room

Come on, $1200 dang it!
by ochotona
Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 360209

Re: The Bond Dream Room

I have heard it described as a rotation into risk-off assets.
by ochotona
Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85789

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

The board is really quiet. That itself could be an indication of a market top. @Thebubblebubble Jesse Colombo of Forbes notes that people are following him less on Twitter, he preaches on bubbles. We also have the University of Michigan consumer sentiment poll where more than 10% of respondents thin...
by ochotona
Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The ideal percentage of Gold in a portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 9649

Re: The ideal percentage of Gold in a portfolio

The Ned Davis Three-Way Portfolio is a trendfollowing cashless HBPP, and it can go 100% into gold! (temporarily)

http://mebfaber.com/2015/06/16/three-way-model/
by ochotona
Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Ally Bank
Replies: 6
Views: 6884

Re: Ally Bank

I'm at a loss why someone would put cash in bank CDs vs just bills/notes at treasury direct. The rates, even if better, don't seem worth it for the grief, continual churn and chasing, and lack of peace of mind. Because I'm not willing to give up the $3,000 in interest I earned last year, that's why!
by ochotona
Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Ally Bank
Replies: 6
Views: 6884

Re: Ally Bank

dualstow wrote:Remember the John Oliver piece on auto loans? Seems like it could be the next big thing to really blow up.
It doesn't sound good. Well, if I watch the quarterly financials I should see severe problems well in time to move money.
by ochotona
Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Ally Bank
Replies: 6
Views: 6884

Re: Ally Bank

They have had an upsurge in subprime auto loan defaults. They used to be called GMAC, and their portfolio is heavily auto loans. I love the 1% paid on deposits, but I am going the watch their quarterly profits. I run from potential problems. I never want to be in a bank where FDIC in invoked. You c...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Ally Bank
Replies: 6
Views: 6884

Ally Bank

They have had an upsurge in subprime auto loan defaults. They used to be called GMAC, and their portfolio is heavily auto loans. I love the 1% paid on deposits, but I am going the watch their quarterly profits. I run from potential problems. I never want to be in a bank where FDIC in invoked.
by ochotona
Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: RyanCare/TrumpCare
Replies: 94
Views: 40872

Re: RyanCare/TrumpCare

Desert wrote:My favorite Trump quote during this process: "Nobody knew that health care could be so complicated." O0
OMG
by ochotona
Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 14
Views: 18803

Re: Emerging Markets

I found an EM ETF with 16% China, not 27%. It's FNDE. If I pair it with Meb Faber's EM-like GVAL, I can get the China exposure to 8%.

I am concerned China is another central bank and real estate bubble, and their growth stats are all fictions.
by ochotona
Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 14
Views: 18803

Re: Emerging Markets

By the way, does anyone have ideas about how to build a collection of EM ETFS that mimic EEM but without China? It's an appealing idea but I don't want to buy a dozen single country ETFs.
by ochotona
Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:07 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 14
Views: 18803

Re: Emerging Markets

Desert wrote:
ochotona wrote:Thanks. I have lots of EM
So you are happy this year so far! Up 12% YTD.
Quite satisfied and the CAPE is lower about 15 so more room to grow. The dividend is like 3%.
by ochotona
Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 14
Views: 18803

Re: Emerging Markets

Thanks. I have lots of EM
by ochotona
Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The retirement crisis - yet another study
Replies: 36
Views: 17508

Re: The retirement crisis - yet another study

Maddy wrote:Is it crazy to think that with a paid-off house you could hire some nice young person to provide you just enough help to allow you to stay permanently in your home in exchange for the deed when you die? (No nursing homes for me, thank you.)
Good idea.
by ochotona
Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Larry Swedroe's take on gold
Replies: 10
Views: 8860

Re: Larry Swedroe's take on gold

Gold is alt.cash
by ochotona
Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85789

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Never take your validation from numbers. That's classic herding behavior.
by ochotona
Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296941

Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

If you take a Gary Antonacci Dual Momentum GEM and replace the equity portion of the HBPP with it, you get a great combo, and it's now easily testable using the "core-satellite" feature on Portfoliovisualizer.com For core, put the non-equity parts of the HBPP: TLT, GLD, and symbol CASHX (or SHY if y...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT vs Buy Your own
Replies: 23
Views: 17319

Re: TLT vs Buy Your own

If you have a bond fund, and interest rates rise, you immediately see a decrease in the share price. So you "feel" a loss. You may say, "Ah, jeez, I wish I had been holding individual bonds, which I could just hold to maturity!" But if you really did hold these individual bonds to maturity, the valu...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Physical Fractional vs. Full oz. Gold
Replies: 24
Views: 16111

Re: Physical Fractional vs. Full oz. Gold

We have made about 10 purchases of Eagles and Krugs from Texas Precious Metals in Shiner, Texas. I have got to say, they are the best prices I've found and based on my phone conversations with them, I feel they are very trustworthy. They have delivered EXACTLY as promised. I was recently looking fo...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Where and how do you purchase physical gold?
Replies: 160
Views: 105879

Re: Where and how do you purchase physical gold?

Yah need ta fondle yer gold n yer gerns