His premise that a balanced portfolio can only support a draw rate in the 3% range is unfounded …. Mathematically A failure of 4% needs to see less then a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement. There is nothing since 1966 that has done that Overdue then :) 10 years of 0% or lowe...

Or PV 72% VGIT (intermediate T's), 28% GDE. 0.085% overall expense ratio for a two-fund version of a PP.

90/90 stock/gold, so from a PP perspective 27.5/25/42.5 GDE/TLT/Cash

PV

WidomTree

Thanks Cortopassi

Pre 1934 when money was gold it made more sense to hold money deposited into Treasuries as the interest was like the State paying you for it to securely store your gold. A form of gold-dividend. Nowadays the gold-dividend can arise out of selling Covered Calls, where if your hold the likes of GLD yo...

Maybe one day time travel will be added to the list of technological innovation. And if that day comes, those that wish can go back to the good old days when things were good. I wonder which period would be most popular? We're 75% there - forward time travel and a form of going back in time, relati...

The PP/GB that I hold is certainly performing no worse than the Boglehead 60/40 in my retirement account. Of course cash is getting walloped by inflation. So is everything else that portfolios are composed of, it's just that cash has been the best performing asset this year. The real question is wh...

The traditional 60/40 portfolio has gone from bad to worse. Down -21.3% YTD. Worst performance since 1931. Ugh. https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/download/file.php?id=2880 1974 was a deeper drawdown in real terms for 60/40 that current/recent https://i.postimg.cc/7PRWm08j/drawdows-real.png ...

Will TLT free fall ever end? PP requires persistent patience. 1988 to 1999 saw gold in continual free fall https://i.postimg.cc/vZD423KP/g.png rebalancing however saw you accumulate multiple more ounces of gold $10K PP at the start of 1988 ended 1999 at $16.2K Gold at the start of 1988 $486/ounce G...

The traditional 60/40 portfolio has gone from bad to worse. Down -21.3% YTD. Worst performance since 1931. Ugh. https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/download/file.php?id=2880 1974 was a deeper drawdown in real terms for 60/40 that current/recent https://i.postimg.cc/7PRWm08j/drawdows-real.png

Paper gold (low spread gold funds), converted to physical gold after a good year (PP up +8%, physical gold coin spread 4%, convert paper gold to physical gold and count it as a +7% up year. That way it feels like 'other peoples money' covered the spread). For ongoing adjustments (rebalancing), add l...

In some cases you might substitute in alternatives. For instance silver instead of gold from 1933 to the 1970's when investment gold was outlawed. 50% intermediate treasuries instead of a STT/LTT barbell when the longest duration's you could buy in Japan were 10 year. https://i.postimg.cc/gkyhBW6R/j...

So far wellesly seems to be a good place to be as far as balanced portfolios, only down 14.50%. Fidelity insight income model down even less at 13.20 Permanent portfolio is down 17.43 using morningstar data. So despite all the charts those who love backtesting posted earlier on , the fact is the pp...

Someone else on the forum, I can't remember who, pointed out that cash lost value to inflation this past year, therefore cash sucks and stocks are the way to go. That was the gist of the poster's point anyway. I thought to myself, well, wait a minute. Cash has a steady nominal value and has lost va...

So far wellesly seems to be a good place to be as far as balanced portfolios, only down 14.50%. Fidelity insight income model down even less at 13.20 Permanent portfolio is down 17.43 using morningstar data. So despite all the charts those who love backtesting posted earlier on , the fact is the pp...

The more and more I reflect on it, the more I'm inclined to say that the GB is the best "default" portfolio out there. GB is a form of 40/60 stock/bond comprised of SCV/TSM for the stock and LTT/TBill/Gold for the 'bonds'. Compared to Wellesley and 40/60 TSM/TBM and since 2003 the GB out-...

For reference, the thing that eventually pushed me over the top on my own SCV vs SCB debate (I settled on SCV) was when I realized just how different the sector makeup is for SCV vs LCB. Large caps are dominated by tech and healthcare, while small cap value is heavily weighted towards financials an...

If we eliminate the worst dates where 4% failed which pretty much if you run from 1970 on that would , then a withdrawal rate for 60/40 would be about 6.50% .so not very stressed as far as outcomes go . The worst retirement years to have retired are 1907 ,1929, 1937 , 1965 and 1966 so starting in 1...

I've been doing the HBPP for almost 9 years and I've done decently well with it. It's been a bit frustrating to see inflation soaring lately and my portfolio basically going nowhere or dropping a bit. And it's been especially frustrating to watch Treasuries drop a lot and it seems the stage is set ...

It goes out to 40 years https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-SSMXJ5L/4/6ffdbeb6/XL/i-SSMXJ5L-XL.jpg Thanks for sharing - gives me a rough idea for my 50% ish Stock GB ish portfolio (discounting Gold, stocks aren’t all in S&P500, more BarBell in bonds, with not 100% in nominal or government) Make...

It's down -19.3% YTD. Its turning out to be the worst year since 1937. There's really no portfolio to hide in this year. https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1573683627375951878/photo/1 Well, damn, no wonder it feels so lousy. I hadn't realized it was historically that bad. And already within ...

'Interesting' Russian weapon, create a half mile high radioactive tsunami wave that sweeps across the land to leave a radioactive desert

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irela ... russian-tv

Coincidentally, I set up a four-rung, one-year T-Bone ladder at the beginning of July ... Mmm, T-Bone ladder. 🥩 For stability/consistency a four-rung 7 day ladder of T-Bone's, rolling 28 day maturity. Mmm! In contrast steaks in general are far more volatile, sometimes good, sometimes bad. Feed off ...

When on a gold standard partial/total defaults are blatantly obvious. Broadly there's 0% inflation, with periodic clusters of high volatility. With Fiat the state can target progressive/less perceptible defaults, such as 2%/year inflation. Gold will do well when fears of more significant Fiat weakne...

Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine’s Kharkiv area https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-world-news-kharkiv-e06b2aa723e826ed4105b5f32827f577 The claim of a withdrawal to concentrate on Donetsk is similar to the justification Russia gave for pulling back its forces from the Kyiv re...