Search found 1968 matches

by sophie
Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:13 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: California will show them!
Replies: 14
Views: 4235

Re: California will show them!

I guess we'll see how this plays out. I might have been convinced about a general shift to the left, but the degree to which polls have been consistently biased to the left, plus the NYC primary results are telling a different story. It looks like Eric Adams, who despite being vilified in the mainst...
by sophie
Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:20 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: California will show them!
Replies: 14
Views: 4235

Re: California will show them!

I didn't want to get into that degree of specificity, but yes to all of that. As far as Idaho and the other transplant states: What will happen when they all inevitably go blue in 2 decades? Will there then be a newer even further left color that will start (duh) in CA and then start infesting NY, ...
by sophie
Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 37
Views: 14561

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

Negative real interest rates to this degree (> 4%) are almost unprecedented in the post gold era, but we can look to the 1970s when real rates were negative (2-3%) and occasionally higher for short periods of time. The answer was that the PP did incredibly well in the 1970s because gold responded ve...
by sophie
Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 37
Views: 14561

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

One could just replace the long/short Treasury barbell with mostly ITT's and a smattering of iBonds and call it a day (that's what I've done for now), or if younger and still years away from retirement use EE and iBonds for the entire bond/cash allocation since they're the only Treasury securities ...
by sophie
Wed May 26, 2021 8:30 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Class Action Lawsuit Says Banks Manipulated Gold Price
Replies: 10
Views: 4978

Re: Class Action Lawsuit Says Banks Manipulated Gold Price

I just tried Tortoise's link, and now it's working.

It says you can file if you sold physical gold sometime between 2004 and June 30, 2013. Guess when my gold sale was? July 22, 2013. D'OH!!!!!!!!!!!

The gods seem determined to be unkind to me lately....
by sophie
Tue May 25, 2021 1:21 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Class Action Lawsuit Says Banks Manipulated Gold Price
Replies: 10
Views: 4978

Re: Class Action Lawsuit Says Banks Manipulated Gold Price

Thanks Tortoise but it came up with an error....

FWIW, APMEX said they're not aware of any such class action suit.
by sophie
Tue May 25, 2021 9:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Class Action Lawsuit Says Banks Manipulated Gold Price
Replies: 10
Views: 4978

Re: Class Action Lawsuit Says Banks Manipulated Gold Price

I didn't get any paperwork in the mail, because the only gold I sold in that time period was physical (to APMEX). I did that to tax loss harvest, and it was a reasonably large amount - so I have the documentation and theoretically all I need to file a claim. I wrote to APMEX (where I sold the coins)...
by sophie
Sat May 22, 2021 10:13 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: YouTuber running for CA Governor
Replies: 1
Views: 2167

Re: YouTuber running for CA Governor

Brilliant idea, to run on a Republican platform but as a Democrat. It might just work if he says all the right woke-like things in between bursts of common sense. Then those common sense ideas won't be as readily smearable by tagging them with words like "Republican" and "Trump"....
by sophie
Fri May 21, 2021 2:48 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Negative 1 and 3 Month Treasury Rates
Replies: 49
Views: 29022

Re: Negative 1 and 3 Month Treasury Rates

I don't know how Fidelity is doing it, but they still have no minimum to invest, are still open to new investors, and haven't broken the buck. My guess is that they are able to compensate for the zero or negative 1 month bills by holding some assets in longer-durations. They probably also have auto ...
by sophie
Thu May 20, 2021 9:56 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Masks Revealed as the Political Symbol They Are (And Have Always Been)
Replies: 35
Views: 13258

Re: Masks Revealed as the Political Symbol They Are (And Have Always Been)

Where are YOU getting your data from? I went to this webpage (you have to click on "trends" to get to this): https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-trends.page Then click on "hospitalizations" which is the most reliable statistic to use. "Cases" is completely...
by sophie
Wed May 19, 2021 10:21 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Masks Revealed as the Political Symbol They Are (And Have Always Been)
Replies: 35
Views: 13258

Re: Masks Revealed as the Political Symbol They Are (And Have Always Been)

Tucker Carlson is calling the desire to continue to wear masks despite the CDC's recommendation evidence of neurosis. Many of these people plan to wear masks indefinitely I guess, because COVID will always be with us and no vaccine is ever going to be 100% protective. My sister & family are good...
by sophie
Tue May 18, 2021 3:29 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: DHS: Easing of CoVid Restrictions Creates Opportunities for Violent Extremists
Replies: 10
Views: 5166

Re: DHS: Easing of CoVid Restrictions Creates Opportunities for Violent Extremists

Crime stats reported by the NYPD form April 2021, compared to April 2020: Overall: 30.4% increase Grand larceny: 66% increase Shooting incidents: 166% increase Murder: 15.8% increase Police arrests for gun-related crimes: 3.7% increase. Note the disparity with the increase in shooting incidents. Cri...
by sophie
Tue May 18, 2021 9:36 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: DHS: Easing of CoVid Restrictions Creates Opportunities for Violent Extremists
Replies: 10
Views: 5166

Re: DHS: Easing of CoVid Restrictions Creates Opportunities for Violent Extremists

I forgot to mention that contribution of the new bail law. That was Andrew Cuomo's way of giving NYC a huge middle finger, I take it. That law should have been called what it is: a new catch and release policy for criminals of all types, including violent ones.
by sophie
Tue May 18, 2021 9:29 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Post gold standard data
Replies: 22
Views: 8099

Re: Post gold standard data

Interesting comparison, Shrugged! A similar comparison can be made for home prices. My parents bought their house in 1968 for $45,000. At the time, my father was working as a civil engineer for $8,000 a year. That prices the house at 5.6x salary. Today, that same house will sell for $600-700K (it's ...
by sophie
Tue May 18, 2021 7:28 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: DHS: Easing of CoVid Restrictions Creates Opportunities for Violent Extremists
Replies: 10
Views: 5166

Re: DHS: Easing of CoVid Restrictions Creates Opportunities for Violent Extremists

I saw an article about how NYC police are gearing up in expectation of a long, hot, violent summer. With the warmer weather this past week, the number of violent incidents popping up on my Citizen app has gotten quite alarming. Subway stabbings, murders, armed home break-ins, etc....at least 1 or 2 ...
by sophie
Mon May 17, 2021 6:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Masks Revealed as the Political Symbol They Are (And Have Always Been)
Replies: 35
Views: 13258

Re: Masks Revealed as the Political Symbol They Are (And Have Always Been)

The majority of mask wearers were non white. I am 100% certain exactly zero percent of them were making a political statement of any kind. Huh, interesting. It's exactly the opposite here in NYC. Lots of people are walking around without masks in the beautiful spring weather, and it's wonderful to ...
by sophie
Tue May 11, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 42178

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Whenever you rebalance, almost by definition you feel like you're about to make huge mistake. Because, you're selling assets that have shot up in value and that everyone is dazzled by and wants to buy more of. And you're buying assets that have gone into the crapper and that everyone is telling you ...
by sophie
Mon May 03, 2021 2:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: 70% of Republicans Believe Falsehood of Stolen Election
Replies: 29
Views: 11560

Re: 70% of Republicans Believe Falsehood of Stolen Election

The undertone here is: How dare the American people disagree with us, CNN, the font of all that is holy?? Based on their numbers it looks like about half the population (70% of Republicans, 30% of Democrats) believe that the election results were not valid. I don't care what CNN's opinion is, in the...
by sophie
Mon May 03, 2021 9:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dragon Portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 15812

Re: Dragon Portfolio

Some random internet dude (https://www.investwithfire.com/dragon-portfolio-protect-your-wealth/) suggested this allocation: Dragon Portfolio 24% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) 18% Long-Term Government Bonds – via the iShares Barclays 20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) 21% Long Volatility – ...
by sophie
Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)
Replies: 22
Views: 9487

Re: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)

Long time Fidelity customer here. You have to keep in mind that they are a discount brokerage. They provide excellent services, but their customer service at the individual level is meant to be used only minimally. I have had generally - but not universally - good experiences when calling them for a...
by sophie
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs
Replies: 43
Views: 21947

Re: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs

An RMD cannot be rolled over to a Roth. If you are above the age at which RMDs are required, you must take your RMD before you do any Roth conversions. Ah, didn't know that. If you don't have a lot of money in tax-deferred I guess you wouldn't need to worry so much about withdrawals kicking you int...
by sophie
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs
Replies: 43
Views: 21947

Re: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs

Another consideration: inheritance. This is going to be extra tricky to manage because we simply don't know whether Biden's current proposals will pass. These include reducing the estate tax exclusion from $11.5M to $3.5M, which will devastate small businesses that will effectively be forced to liqu...
by sophie
Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs
Replies: 43
Views: 21947

Re: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs

Thanks pp4me! That's virtually identical to what I'm doing. I'm still saving and not drawing down of course, but the asset distribution among accounts should be the same. Main difference is that when I retire, I'll dump out all my 401K/403b accounts into a single IRA so that I have full control over...
by sophie
Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs
Replies: 43
Views: 21947

Re: Golden Butterfly asset location when retired with RMDs

I would do what I'm already doing: pack the tax-deferred accounts with cash, gold and bonds. These are the assets that are likely to gain the least over time. use tax-exempt (Roth and HSA) for stocks. I put some gold in here also. In taxable you want stocks, savings bonds, and "deep" physi...
by sophie
Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:01 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-bond rate: 3.54%
Replies: 84
Views: 39668

Re: New I-bond rate: 3.54%

Tipswatch has announced that the new variable component of I-bonds will reset to 3.54% on May 1, 2021. Even if the new fixed rate is announced as 0%, that means that the composite rate for the next six months of I-bonds is guaranteed to be at least 3.54%. 1. If you have not yet purchased your quota...