Search found 271 matches

by modeljc
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

My numbers are IWS 20.00 and IWP 19.8625. They are very small to make a trade difference in my view. If I had a live trade in IWP I might not trade as the in and out will kill returns. Did a small position for IWS and VXUS. It was easy as I did not need to sell IWP which was up 4.7% on a paper trad...
by modeljc
Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

My numbers are IWS 20.00 and IWP 19.8625. They are very small to make a trade difference in my view. If I had a live trade in IWP I might not trade as the in and out will kill returns. Did a small position for IWS and VXUS. It was easy as I did not need to sell IWP which was up 4.7% on a paper trad...
by modeljc
Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

My numbers are IWS 20.00 and IWP 19.8625. They are very small to make a trade difference in my view. If I had a live trade in IWP I might not trade as the in and out will kill returns. Did a small position for IWS and VXUS. It was easy as I did not need to sell IWP which was up 4.7% on a paper trad...
by modeljc
Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

Used Portfolio Visualizer got 20.265 for IWS and 20.951 for IWP. Used ETF Replay and got 20.275 for IWS and 20.951 for IWP. Anyway IWP is the winner. Probably includes dividends for ETF Replay. Both services are one day late reporting the last day of the month. Hard to do a trade before the end of ...
by modeljc
Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

My numbers are IWS 20.00 and IWP 19.8625. They are very small to make a trade difference in my view. If I had a live trade in IWP I might not trade as the in and out will kill returns. Did a small position for IWS and VXUS. It was easy as I did not need to sell IWP which was up 4.7% on a paper trad...
by modeljc
Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

My numbers are IWS 20.00 and IWP 19.8625. They are very small to make a trade difference in my view. If I had a live trade in IWP I might not trade as the in and out will kill returns. Did a small position for IWS and VXUS. It was easy as I did not need to sell IWP which was up 4.7% on a paper trad...
by modeljc
Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

The Russell had a surprise winner for the end of the month, IWP is out, IWS is in. And with that last minute change, I'm going to stop giving what it looks like the investment will be until the month is fully over, just confuses things when they don't go the way they look like they will and change ...
by modeljc
Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

ACWX and VXUS are virtually identical ETF's. I was persuaded by an individual to switch from ACWX to VXUS for it's 10X larger AUM, 1/3rd as large fee and 3X trading volume. It was the right thing to do. If you are in ACWX currently, I'd hold it until there is a change. You can see from 11/01/2020 t...
by modeljc
Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

Unless the last day of the year is a doozy, the investment selections for both Global Navigator and The Russell are unchanged for January. Global Navigator: VXUS The Russell: IWP I'll post the end of month and year results a day or two after the year is complete, I like getting the final numbers fr...
by modeljc
Wed Dec 09, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

I figure when risk is off there is not trigger. Just use smart leverage. When risk is on only use it if certain conditions are met. Any more clues that you can talk about? I’ll let you know if we had a confirmed Leverage Trigger and enter into a 2X ETF, every month I confirm that we either stay the...
by modeljc
Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

Can you give use the rules for smart leverage? How much decline do you need to see before you use it. It appears to be automatic when entering the three Russell indexes. How about when you have risk off in bonds. Mod, I'm going to stay a little tight lipped about that part of the strategy - how and...
by modeljc
Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

Can you give use the rules for smart leverage? How much decline do you need to see before you use it. It appears to be automatic when entering the three Russell indexes. How about when you have risk off in bonds. Mod, I'm going to stay a little tight lipped about that part of the strategy - how and...
by modeljc
Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

Several years ago when I started investing in these models, I had a little difficulty getting over a mental hurdle that I had with following the directive of the model and going 100% into something if I felt the market was currently overvalued. Others may or may not have this or other hangups. I've...
by modeljc
Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

Several years ago when I started investing in these models, I had a little difficulty getting over a mental hurdle that I had with following the directive of the model and going 100% into something if I felt the market was currently overvalued. Others may or may not have this or other hangups. I've...
by modeljc
Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell
Replies: 144
Views: 119521

Re: Please meet Global Navigator and The Russell

For December 2020, there is a change of investment in both Global Navigator and The Russell. Global Navigator exits its leverage holding SSO and goes foreign with ACWX. The Russell exits the Russell MidCap Growth, IWP, and enters the Russell MidCap Value, IWS. I will place my trades to execute late...
by modeljc
Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 424640

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Hey, modeljc. Very much appreciate your thoughts. Whenever I see smart people think differently than I do, I wonder what I am missing. You seem to be recommending a complete exit from bonds and relying on cash and gold to counterweight equity / tech volatility. I’m intrigued. You’re still in the ga...
by modeljc
Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 424640

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I'm at about 25% each of TMF and TQQQ. 45% physical gold and 5% cash. (Plus a separate cash cache for 3 years living expenses). Roughly, that looks like 1.5x leverage, but it feels more explosive than that. Probably because it is not as easy to "refill" TQQQ from physical gold when it craters. I ha...
by modeljc
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 44
Views: 15995

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

Rising rates could be kryptonite at this particular point in time, yes. I hope the gold will mitigate the effects. Referring to another part of the thread, according to my notes, my Aha! moment was in 2004. That happens to match up with me realizing George Bush The Younger was a war criminal, and s...
by modeljc
Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 424640

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
by modeljc
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 424640

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
by modeljc
Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 424640

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
by modeljc
Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 424640

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

On performance...those numbers are good. Basically holding TQQQ since inception would have made anyone wealthy. However, one should model 2000-2002 with a simulated TQQQ...my mix tries to be a mix for the long haul. I not sure TQQQ would have made it past 2000-2002. For me I not sure you can take t...
by modeljc
Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 424640

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% with actual...
by modeljc
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 424640

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% with actual...
by modeljc
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 141
Views: 46799

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...