Search found 1111 matches

by dragoncar
Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Coin Counterfeiting today
Replies: 39
Views: 23767

Re: Gold Coin Counterfeiting today

It could have been destructive or uneconomical testing, though
by dragoncar
Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Moving out of the PP
Replies: 10
Views: 8710

Re: Moving out of the PP

I want to get out, but I'm too stubborn and I know it'll just go up as soon as I do. The next time equities are way down, I might move out of other assets
by dragoncar
Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Traditional development
Replies: 25
Views: 14644

Re: Traditional development

All you had to do was buy in CA a couple decades ago. Taxes generally limited to 1% of assessed value, and assessment increases capped at 2% per year. Part of why our income taxes are high, but it's a good deal once you retire
by dragoncar
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Traditional development
Replies: 25
Views: 14644

Re: Traditional development

Impact fees - These can work if the fees are large enough to support a SWR equal to the revenue needed to pay for services, right?
by dragoncar
Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329708

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

dragoncar, I am curious, so the 3x SPY about doubled in the timeframe, how did the 3x gold and bond ETFs do? These numbers will be a bit off since I already rebalanced, but: SPXL +39.07% TMF -10.52% UGLD -12% All acquired 03/01/2016 (so the above would make SPXL 33.4% exposure, but as I said it was...
by dragoncar
Tue Nov 29, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329708

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Pulled the trigger on a rebalance. My 3xSPY was bouncing around 34-35% of exposure for a while. I was way up for a while, but now back to square one (very modest gain).
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:16 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: I like the odds
Replies: 16
Views: 10970

Re: I like the odds

There has to be a way around a preemptive pardon, if the corruption is worthy of prosecution in the first place, like many believe. You can only pardon for past acts. So Congress can order her to testify and she will either be made to tell all the gory details (likely further hurting the Democrat p...
by dragoncar
Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329708

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

It will be fine...my initial foray was a year long drawdown from pretty much day 1 with well over 50% losses in UGLD. You have a big wad of cash and as I've mentioned several times, it is a near certainty that you will experience one asset going to zero over the course of a year. This is an aggress...
by dragoncar
Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Electoral College
Replies: 11
Views: 10664

Re: The Electoral College

MG, 1. Forget why it was implemented this way. The result of getting rid of it will be to give huge population centers e.g. California, new York, etc etc more influence and other states less. Is that what you want or think is appropriate? Not more influence per capita. It's ridiculous the mind hoop...
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Anyone care to predict the future?
Replies: 6
Views: 4141

Re: Anyone care to predict the future?

MachineGhost wrote:Trifectas an exception but it is woefully statistically insignificant:

Image
Is that pp or S&p?
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:55 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Best Refrigerator Temperature to Keep Food Fresh
Replies: 6
Views: 3903

Re: Best Refrigerator Temperature to Keep Food Fresh

I keep mine at 33. Sometimes get frost on vegetables but not a big deal. Still get mold on food when I'm not fast enough
by dragoncar
Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:13 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tallying of early votes
Replies: 20
Views: 8448

Re: Tallying of early votes

Any chance of getting caught happens well after the fact, but the penalties might be considerable (misrepresentation on a government form). It's sort of like cheating on your taxes. Lots of people do it, but more avoid it because even though the probability of getting caught is small, the penalties...
by dragoncar
Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tallying of early votes
Replies: 20
Views: 8448

Re: Tallying of early votes

That makes more sense. I thought in 2000 they were saying that mail-in ballots basically were never counted unless the race was close enough that it would make a difference. That was a bit upsetting to me at the time. Gore won 270+ electoral votes if the FL Supreme Court had decided to wait to coun...
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie question
Replies: 22
Views: 11355

Re: Newbie question

I use individual bonds, but check your trading platform/brokerage and see how they plan to make money off the trade. For example, I bought some using TD Ameritrade and it when I went to sell I got so-called "bids" that were 5% below the expected value. Wouldn't want to do a lot of trading at the cos...
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tallying of early votes
Replies: 20
Views: 8448

Re: Tallying of early votes

As far as I know, it's only ballots that have been returned and party ID that is tallied, not the actual vote counted. So for instance, hypothetically if 675K registered R's, 700K registered D's and 550K I's have returned early votes, they know the numbers returned, but they don't report who each p...
by dragoncar
Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Taxi Drivers are Racist!
Replies: 3
Views: 3478

Re: Taxi Drivers are Racist!

In restaurants, the differences in tipping could be explained by mutually destructive preconceptions (black people tip less therefore I give them worse service so they tip less). Is there evidence they also tip less for taxis? If a bunch of taxis passed me I think I'd tip more to the one that finall...
by dragoncar
Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Goodbye
Replies: 27
Views: 17317

Re: Goodbye

Just for the record, I still pop in now and then, though mostly as a lurker. While I will agree that the level of discourse is not up to its former standards, my main reason for not posting as much is simply that a lot of what is being posted are topics that have either been beaten to death or that...
by dragoncar
Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Hurricane Matthew
Replies: 6
Views: 4224

Re: Hermine

It's levioSAAHH
by dragoncar
Fri Sep 23, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16759

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

I got a perfect score (100) and think the test was very well written
by dragoncar
Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hand Holding
Replies: 60
Views: 23554

Re: Hand Holding

25 basis points is too much for a single raise. Just do 5 bp and nobody will bat an eye. If they did 5bp each quarter this year we'd almost be at 1/4 point and no overreaction. Boil the frog
by dragoncar
Thu Sep 22, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16759

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

The classics questions are the ones with equal expected value, so would you rather have $500 or a 50/50 chance at $0/$1000. That makes sense I guess. I'd typically pick a sure thing all else being equal. Now if it's $500 vs 50/50 chance of $2000/0 I'd flip the coin. Usually you keep adjusting the va...
by dragoncar
Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16759

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

I didn't even know what they were getting at with the whole "some experts think metals will go up do you sell your bonds?" Uh no I don't change my AA based on what "some experts" think
by dragoncar
Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16759

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

Above average, but possibly a $200 gain is insignificant compared to my portfolio. If they example values were 10-100 times bigger I'd be far more cautious
by dragoncar
Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329708

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I understand futures in general but have no experience with them. I'd be interested in seeing a play by play for any paper trades you do to understand the mechanics involved