Search found 2815 matches

by Kbg
Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 379996

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

I usually don't come to this part of the board...but I think a couple of things are obvious. 1. Healthcare in the US is broke, period, full stop. 2. People would rather argue about their political views as to how healthcare "should" work rather than solve the problem practically. I spent most of my ...
by Kbg
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645239

Re: Stock scream room

As a broad generalized statement, nothing in the US market is cheap.
by Kbg
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645239

Re: Stock scream room

I'm not sure this observation really holds anymore. - Big companies are pretty good at being global which lessens the currency impact - It's not hard to be a small company and sell globally anymore If I were to guess, it's a simple rotation into something that has been lagging for quite a while, mea...
by Kbg
Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold to bounce soon?
Replies: 50
Views: 33265

Re: Gold to bounce soon?

I have some proprietary stuff I follow...suggests a good time to buy. I rebalanced to up my gold holdings. On the other hand if history is any guide we could go lower, but the odds are against that.
by Kbg
Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: GLDM - 0.18 exp. ratio 'Gold minishares'
Replies: 33
Views: 22014

Re: GLDM - 0.18 exp. ratio 'Gold minishares'

Too early to say...need a quarter's worth of trading to see what happens.

If the first three days' trading for both is any indication clearly the early nod goes to GLDM.
by Kbg
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: IAU is now commission-free at Fidelity
Replies: 16
Views: 11816

Re: IAU is now commission-free at Fidelity

A very long thread has opened up on Bogleheads...lots of slicing and dicing the new Fido funds
by Kbg
Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

War and warfare has always been highly complex at many levels and is fundamentally a human endeavor which means it is waged for many reasons, some good, some evil, many somewhere in between. I spent a couple of years on two different occasions emerged in the topic academically...if one really wants ...
by Kbg
Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

You should read everything after “to be clear” more carefully.
by Kbg
Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

The idea that "we have to fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here" took hold for good and refuses to let go. Anyone who says the above disparagingly has never actually been in a war zone. Well, I spent 12 months in a war zone and saw nothing that convinced me of the truth of ...
by Kbg
Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

The idea that "we have to fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here" took hold for good and refuses to let go. Anyone who says the above disparagingly has never actually been in a war zone. Personally, I'm totally cool with erring on the side of caution with this one. Why do yo...
by Kbg
Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296774

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

I can dream, right? The GEM pops out of stocks in 2019 Just as the 10 year Treasury hits 4% Just as gold dives under $1000 because of the strong Dollar due to 4% bond yields I rebalance gold back up to 10%, dump my stocks and go to bonds, and my retirement plan will work OK with 4% CAGR so who care...
by Kbg
Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

I think we are getting a bit loose with the definition of interventionist. I think we weren’t really interventionist until the late 1800s and by no stretch of the standard definition could you call the two world wars interventionist. Latin America, Hawaii, a bit in Africa, Russia 1919) those are int...
by Kbg
Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

I think we are getting a bit loose with the definition of interventionist. I think we weren’t really interventionist until the late 1800s and by no stretch of the standard definition could you call the two world wars interventionist. Latin America, Hawaii, a bit in Africa, Russia 1919) those are int...
by Kbg
Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

At one time I would have called myself a Libertarian but today I tend to eschew all forms of ideology and am more of a pragmatist. Having said that, the U.S.A. has had an interventionist foreign policy since at least the end of WWII. Can someone point out what benefit this has been to the American ...
by Kbg
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 0.00 expense ratio index funds @ Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 13127

Re: 0.00 expense ratio index funds @ Fidelity

If we are going to get technical...the more appropriate analogy is a vacation condo time share. You own fund shares, the fund owns the underlying stocks. In any event, I don’t want to get or sound negative. My main point is the risk is not in the practice of stock lending but rather the intermediary...
by Kbg
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

I think KBG is right. Libertarianism may be theoretically satisfying, but it is practically problematic. Centuries later, the Moors still mourn the loss of Andalusia and the Turks believe they should not have stopped at the gates of Vienna. And anarchists were an integral part of the Russian revolu...
by Kbg
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 0.00 expense ratio index funds @ Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 13127

Re: 0.00 expense ratio index funds @ Fidelity

I don't think the practice is a bad one. It enables a larger measure of shorting on specific stocks which is helpful for price discovery and the actual owners of the stock are compensated for holding the assets they have. I don't think anyone would be conceptually opposed to equipment rental compani...
by Kbg
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19400

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

Power in all its forms is a tool for exerting control. Those with power get to control, those without it don't. I like many Libertarian ideas, but there is another part of me that thinks it's a pretty stupid political philosophy. To live in a Libertarian world successfully (safely?), you have to ass...
by Kbg
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296774

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

After diving into this topic a while back I concluded it is an assumption laden minefield and it really comes down to your risk tolerance. A very good conservative approach (highly conservative in fact with solid actuarial math behind it) is to simply use the RMD tables from the IRS. The downside is...
by Kbg
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 0.00 expense ratio index funds @ Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 13127

Re: 0.00 expense ratio index funds @ Fidelity

I'm not sure the correct wording of this...but there is no counter party risk. However, there is flat out fraud risk. Stock lending is like the bank and your mortgage. You don't pay the loan, they get your house...and in this case, you simply get your stock back. The main thing to pay attention to i...
by Kbg
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Farmland
Replies: 7
Views: 5959

Re: Farmland

Caveat Emptor...if you are going to buy a specialized REIT...make darn sure you read the prospectus in its entirety.
by Kbg
Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296774

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Very important content from Gary and others. A must-read. This suggests dual momentum portfolios outperform in retirement. https://www.dualmomentum.net/2018/07/momentum-solutions-for-retirement.html?m=1 There are a lot of caveats behind the 4% rule and the study it was based on. One would be well a...
by Kbg
Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296774

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

A rotational strategy using momentum and various types of bonds funds/ETFs works very well. To execute it you need a source of dividend adjusted prices...which will generally require a subscription and specialized software. Someone who may be interested and cheap might dig into Stockcharts.com to se...
by Kbg
Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350446

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Sophie, I don't think there's anything particularly wrong with Growth stocks, but value stocks have generally performed better in the past, probably for a variety of reasons. Some folks are also not real happy with the fundamental structure of large cap weighted indices like TSM or S&P500, since th...
by Kbg
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423603

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Hi all, adding my 2 cents. My leveraged PP is the following: 45% UPRO 35% TMF 20% UGLD I keep it simple and just rebalance annually. Its returned 22.23% CAGR over the past 5 years (2013-2017), here's a performance screenshot: http://www.tightwadweb.com/3x-2013-2017.jpg So far, the first 6 months of...