Gold today is a very different animal … Prior to the ETFs gold was not a main stream investment for the public ….. it was the play area of doomsayers , speculators and Central banks . The last two decades have seen very different performance and interaction with gold as it was able to be bought and ...

30 year outcomes , are fairly decent , really nothing out of the ordinary 1907 stocks returned 7.77% -- bonds 4.250-- rebalanced portfolio 7.02- - inflation 1.64-- 1929 stocks 8.19% - - bonds 1.74%-- rebalanced portfolio 6.28-- inflation 1.69-- 1937 stocks 10.12 - - bonds 2.13 - rebalanced portfolio...

Kitces recommends at least 2% since you can end the 30th year with a buck with lower returns and they pass . So I prefer to monitor in real time shooting for at least 2% . Also every failure looked fine over 30 years ..however they all spend down to far trying to meet spending within the first 15 ye...

1934 still missed the worst outcomes in 1907 , 1929 so again not an apples to apples comparison as bengen defined it as including 1929 and capturing the wild up years first by starting in 1926 . There is a reason both bengen and also the trinity study started at 1926 Kitces recommends starting at 4%...

I would start at no more then 4% ….then see how things go over time

Not the case . We have discussed this here over and over .the term safe withdrawal rate is based on very specific dates . The last date was 1965/1966 that was a worst case scenario . If one stress tests after 1966 it is not being compared against what the term means …Monte Carlo simulation tries to...

a 5% draw has failed to many times already to be a starting point...it is not considered a safe withdrawal rate at below 90% FIRECalc looked at the 122 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter. He...

I no longer want to own physical gold ..I did it once and it was to much of a headache storing it ..I use it strictly as a trading vehicle

Gold flys cover for all 3 portfolios and is about 15%… Like the pp I keep it about 25% of my income model but if I look at all 3 as a whole it’s about 15%, so spread out it is a lot smaller position …. Gold is like the added outsider as it really isn’t in any of them ..I just added it along for the ...

I would say that the opposite has been demonstrated by the dividend payers They can be very irresponsible with corporate money if only that would be the case but corporate stupidity is not isolated because stocks pay dividends . these stocks can squander more money than their non div payer relatives...

Bottom line is there is no difference when you pull money out either way . Total return always is the guiding force as to how much you can take and there is no difference in down markets doing it via dividends or not . You may prefer one way or another but to make a claim dividends are better becaus...

…just because a person may have a portfolio of non div payers why are you assuming they would be selling equities in a down market ? If someone is generating income it is highly unlikely they are 100% equities or they would have to have nerves of steel ..highly unlikely the same person is selling ev...

It is amazing how the getting paid to wait myth just doesn’t die.. Every retiree that draws an income is getting paid regardless of markets but every penny spent means that much less being acted on by markets because like any money coming out there is a price to pay for that withdrawal…markets alway...

So as an example of why there is no such thing as you recover the dividend pulled out. Look at xom , Exxon since 2000 With dividends put back, you have your original amount back after each payment is taken out , so you have 10k worth 59,082 today . If we spend those dividends you have 28,800 . You c...

There's not anything wrong with applying some investor psychology to yourself and realizing that you appreciate dividends and that they help you ignore price swings. Except what You have is called the empowers new clothes … While investor mental behavior is a good thing , believing one’s own bull s...

But your investment is being d sold off ..every dividend has your portfolio value reduced by the same amount paid out . The company selling off a piece of your share price is no different than you selling equal dollars off your portfolio via share or piece of a share since you can now buy and sell ...

But your investment is being d sold off ..every dividend has your portfolio value reduced by the same amount paid out . The company selling off a piece of your share price is no different than you selling equal dollars off your portfolio via share or piece of a share since you can now buy and sell f...

That is false logic . Dividends are withdrawals like any other withdrawal . Withdrawals are always dependent on portfolio values … It is total returns and the sequence of returns that determine withdrawals and withdrawal success rates , not whether the company makes the withdrawals for you or you do...

Although at the end of the day it is all one big portfolio I find it easier to track and optimize by time frame

Most of the time under 1% difference.
The 10 year returns are separated by less then half a point , maybe even closer to a third of a point

I used a mix of 3 fidelity insight portfolios ….they averaged about 40% equities …each portfolio was optimized for a certain time frame . Meaning shorter term money used a 25% equity model , a growth and income model for intermediate term money used 60 to 65% equines and 35-40 % bonds and a long ter...

this kitces video should be required viewing for entering retirement .

Very very informative for those who have an interest in safe withdrawal rates …one of the best videos I know of for learning


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sUl_04g-CQ

Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld . On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3% SHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch. This is true but shy does tend to outperform cash ..in fact even with t...

As a retiree I no longer care about history …

All that matters is what happens during my time frame while drawing my income .


So far I am retired 7-1/2 years , drawing 6 figures a year at about a 4% draw and even today I am higher than I was the day I retired .

But I didn’t do it on the pp

From 2007 to present



https://www.turingtrader.com/portfolios ... portfolio/