Search found 730 matches

by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child
Replies: 22
Views: 5309

Re: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child

Fourth, when has a diversified portfolio of equities EVER gone down in real inflation-adjusted value value over 15 or 16 years? This actually was the case from 1966 to 1981 (inclusive) using S&P 500 data. So that is a 16-year period with negative real returns. Source: https://www.officialdata.org/u...
by D1984
Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child
Replies: 22
Views: 5309

Re: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child

Interesting question. Stocks, stocks, and more stocks. Even though it's nice that they may be too young to pay taxes on dividends for a while, I think I would go with two slices: 1) a core made of an index fund, like total market or small cap blend. 85% of the starting portfolio in this core. 2) so...
by D1984
Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Another IRS attack on gold coins
Replies: 8
Views: 3103

Re: Another IRS attack on gold coins

Shrugged – I agree in general but if most of your savings are in a 401 or IRA, then it is hard to avoid having gold there. KBG – Yes, the title sounds like click bait but it actually reflects my contempt for the IRS and its methods. Now, I managed to find a detailed analysis of this decision prepar...
by D1984
Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Markel Analysis PE of 7.
Replies: 4
Views: 1420

Re: Markel Analysis PE of 7.

As someone who basically never sells the VP side of the portfolio, I try to buy things that I feel are high quality, durable, a good price, stable, etc, etc… TLDR What do folks think of Markel? I believe the PE is hovering around 7. The management has been around for a long time, I’m a fan of Tom G...
by D1984
Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 399876

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Today's reminder that the regime wants you dead. The virus exists, but the pandemic mainly exists between your ears. https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/dying-covid-19-patient-recovers-after-court-orders-hospital-administer-ivermectin My own personal opinion is that if someone wants to use ivermecti...
by D1984
Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 12
Views: 3695

Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change

D1984/Pug, I'm not sure geography rules will really do anything. I sat through a lecture by Charlie Cook (of The Cook Report fame) about 15 years ago and he mentioned that with the advent of highly precise geographic systems and data mining the ability to draw a congressional district the way you w...
by D1984
Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:04 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 12
Views: 3695

Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change

I stand corrected, nut job regardless. Having said the above, if I were the next Republican speaker I’d find a couple of democrats who made some outrageous statements and strip them of their committee assignments. I’d probably keep doing it until several were out. Then I’d ask the dems, when does t...
by D1984
Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:14 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 26
Views: 6840

Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

That’s an amazing portfolio seajay. “The Golden Swedroe”? I initially thought your chosen backtesting time frame was responsible for the results but that’s not so. Impressive - though I’ve never met a retiree who could live with that kind of tracking error. The returns on this one are actually pret...
by D1984
Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Utilities: A Diversifier
Replies: 3
Views: 2040

Re: Utilities: A Diversifier

You might want to backtest beyond a period of only generally falling rates (which we have had for the last 35 to 40 years) since utility performance was drastically different (and drastically worse) during periods of rising rates and rising inflation (like the mid-1960s to 1980) than it was during t...
by D1984
Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Correlation coefficient finding software or website?
Replies: 4
Views: 1578

Correlation coefficient finding software or website?

OK, here is the hypothetical situation: Say I have four asset classes and I want to find the exact blend of them that is closest in returns on a monthly basis (i.e. has the highest correlation to the fifth asset) to another asset class (or closest to inflation, or closest to the price of oil, etc......
by D1984
Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:33 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%
Replies: 35
Views: 11155

Re: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%

Glad I decided to buy in October after all since fixed rate is 0. I really can't begin to predict what rate will be in another year. Probably back to the normal 1% though. The fixed rate portion will be back to 1%....or the inflation rate portion will be back to 1%? IIRC, the fixed rate was only 0....
by D1984
Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:50 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Martin Armstrong on Australia
Replies: 7
Views: 3126

Re: Martin Armstrong on Australia

despite him making his clients less money (even before fees) than they would've gotten in a plain boring world index fund. Gold has returned almost 8% annualized over the time period since 2006. I believe a World Stock Index fund returned the same (but with slightly worse drawdowns) during that sam...
by D1984
Fri Oct 29, 2021 1:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 30901

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

One, how many of the transactions in Bitcoin so far are for actual goods or services and not just speculative buying and selling of Bitcoin for short-term investment/speculation purposes? How, does this compare to the amount of goods and services bought in, say, USD each day? Two, how is Bitcoin ch...
by D1984
Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 30901

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

How could I possibly be asking this question? Easy. One, how many of the transactions in Bitcoin so far are for actual goods or services and not just speculative buying and selling of Bitcoin for short-term investment/speculation purposes? How, does this compare to the amount of goods and services ...
by D1984
Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 30901

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

What I am asking is this...what is going to make people one day en-masse decide to start spending/earning in BTC or another crypto instead of, say, US Dollars? I cant tell where you are coming from on this. Bitcoin is a trillion dollar network and has been growing exponentially since its inception....
by D1984
Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 30901

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Why would an average American want to stop using dollars for everyday purchases and start using BTC? What can/could incent them to do that? That's what I meant by "killer app". So in that case, the "killer app" is gold replacement for the modern age? Fair enough, but in that case what major advanta...
by D1984
Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 30901

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

1. Does it have a (at least nominal) positive expected return over the long run 2. Does it have an uncorrelated return profile with most/all the other assets in the portfolio. 1. Yes, because it has deflationary economics. 2. This is a good point, because currently we have inflationary economics in...
by D1984
Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 30901

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

Thanks for think links. I actually don't think that this is a generational issue but just a matter of what the fundamental nature of gold and bitcoin are. I fully expect bitcoin and gold to exist almost with an even split market cap once everything stabilizes because there's really no significant d...
by D1984
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:27 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Australian stock index returns (daily or monthly) - a question
Replies: 1
Views: 991

Australian stock index returns (daily or monthly) - a question

Just a quick question for any Aussies we might have on this board (or anyone else who might have access to this kind of info): Do you know of any source for Australian stock return data (i.e. TR with dividends reinvested) or even just price-only data (i.e. just the share price of the index with no d...
by D1984
Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 11932

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

For the method I outlined earlier and from 1900 ... https://i.postimg.cc/Kc1LKqdW/stochastic-silver-us-stock-TBills-instead-of-silver-pre-1934-us-and-us-inflation.png 4% was more a PWR, and in one case you ended with over seven times the inflation adjusted start date portfolio value after 4% SWR wi...
by D1984
Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 11932

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

all irrelevent since the math is the math as to what is needed for 4% swr to hold. that is a 2-1/2% real return min the first 15 years . it does not matter how you want to get to it ELI5. If US stocks return, say 1.4% real annually on average (CAGR) for the next 15 years and bonds return, say, 0.3%...
by D1984
Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 11932

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

It wasn’t returns that killed off those failing years , it was the sequences of those returns and real returns… safe withdrawal rates are based not on average returns but "worst case scenario" returns (at least, the worst we've seen in history) In fact if you look at the 30 year returns for all the...
by D1984
Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:27 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Martin Armstrong on Australia
Replies: 7
Views: 3126

Re: Martin Armstrong on Australia

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/australia-oceania/australia-committing-economic-suicide/ So... if you live in a small economy, then some international diversification is advisable. Take a bow Smithy => https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=11920&p=22354...
by D1984
Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 54
Views: 20795

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

The rate is set every six months and you get that rate for six months regardless of the announcement date. Quick example. Bond bought in Sept (3.54%) Rate change on 1 Nov to 7.1% Bond bought in Jan September bond stays at 3.54 until March at which point it rolls to 7.1% until Sept next January bond...
by D1984
Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why isn't gold moving?
Replies: 69
Views: 22268

Re: Why isn't gold moving?

I think maybe there has to be more gloom and doom in the air before people start fleeing to safety. As long as stocks are still cranking along and staying ahead of inflation investors aren't going to worry about it that much. A major stock market correction, coupled with continuing inflation, might...