i think the inflation adjusted return for the s&p 500 cagr from 1980 to 2014 was 8.35% .  most growth models run about 80-90% equity for decades before falling off . no matter how you slice it the potential was there for a considerable difference  if someone wanted the volatility of a growth mo...

oooh we know it is real .  small investors stink .  i assume you see that the investor return vs the fund return is given on most funds in morningstar. they track the money in and out and small investors do the wrong thing at the wrong time. but that still does not mean the difference in potential f...

i don't think you can find many 30 year time frames where the spread  between the pp and the typical target date fund  or similar allocation wouldn't be very sizable . That's true.  If one has the fortitude to ride a single TSM fund for 30 years and never look at their accounts, they'll very likely...

OK, but... if someone had used the PP as their accumulation phase portfolio, their portfolio size is likely smaller at retirement. So the PP has a higher SWR on a smaller amount. But if we forgot about the SW RATE and go after the SW absolute amount, based on a $10,000 investment made four decades ...

without including the  4 worst time frames looking at the time frames they extended into like the 1966 group  ran through the 1970's you are not actually comparing a safe withdrawal rate by just starting the pp off in the 1970's.. But the PP has handled the worst the markets have thrown at it since...

one of the reason retirement planning is so vague now is because we have zero scenario's ever like now to simulate. low rates and high valuations never happened before and they may be just as deadly spending down from the  pp as a conventional mix. which goes back to what I said earlier about insura...

firecalc is including those worst scenarios.  you could never pull 6.50% including those time frames . that was my point about the pp. without including the  4 worst time frames looking at the time frames they extended into like the 1966 group  ran through the 1970's you are not actually comparing a...

the problem was , for most americans the time leading up to that time frame was one of the worst. it was near impossible to save a dime with the high inflation and poor markets . don't forget 401k's didn't even exist. it was all well and good the party was here but few had money. but isn't that typi...

I started in 1987

nope , in another thread  I forgot who ran the actual numbers for me but that was for the 4 part diy. I did say above the results will depend on your own time frame and exact portfolio.  as always your own results are what counts. the last 15 years have been  a pretty rare exception for the stock ma...

I agree `100% , the pp is as perfect as you can get it as is. do not mess with it. you either accept it for what it is or do something else.

it really depends on the actual portfolio and the time frame . as I posted above in my 27 year time frame 10k in the pp was 67k.  10k in the very conservative wellesley income  I think was 167k . my own portfolio 10k was 203k .  you really can't compare in general terms nor imply amounts. as you can...

I can't say I have any ideas for dealing with an allocation of only 25% other than just what the pp does

did you check out  kitce's findings ?  I think that is one very very enlightening article

average safe withdrawal rate when the 4  time frames above were removed is 6.50% .

here is Michael kitce's findings


https://www.kitces.com/blog/what-return ... ased-upon/

a 4.70 % withdrawal rate is very different from a safe withdrawal rate (swr )  saying it supported a 4.7 % withdrawal rate through less than the worst of times  would not be  accurate if comparing it to a safe withdrawal rate  since  it couldn't test against the time frames that are the benchmarks ...

a 4.70 % withdrawal rate is very different from a safe withdrawal rate (swr )  saying it supported a 4.7 % withdrawal rate through less than the worst of times  would not be  accurate if comparing it to a safe withdrawal rate  since  it couldn't test against the time frames that are the benchmarks f...

it would take high inflation and a weak dollar.  so far that combo has been off the radar.

yep , you have to make some assumption about the future. historically you would have been quite poorer following the pp over most time frames  if you made the assumption things would be worse if you bet on the fact we are historically up 2/3's of the time  you would have assumed correctly. will the ...

which is why as an investment gold has the worst track record of them all.

it hasn't done such a great job as an inflation hedge either being quite random in its response . in retrospect it really has not been as predictable as old harry thought it would be.

because the reduced equity's need to make a lot of money in the down markets to keep up their average. 60% equities and even cash would be fine because of the added growth in the up markets..

because there is no reason to use it in any form if you are not using it  100% in its designed form  in my opinion and in fact can create a very very risky retirement mix by doing so because  as you drop equity levels  retirement success rates are  worse and worse. if you cut the fighter cover on t...

i guess i will answer first , although i didn't use the pp . what i did is add up all our non discretionary bills , the ones we have no say in.    then i multiplied that by 2x to come up with a comfortable spending budged that included all other spending. so hypothetically if my non discretionary bi...

for those closer to retirement and using the pp , how close to meeting your retirement needs has the pp taken you ? how did you decide how much you will need ?  the old rule of thumb of 80% of your salary is totally inaccurate for lots of reasons. a retirement budget should be based on spending need...

the best results when investing long term  are generally going to be  from keeping equities in the deferred accounts and bonds and cash in the taxable accounts. even the slightest stock turnover in a fund can destroy any tax benefit to be had by doing the reverse . depending on the length of time yo...