Search found 9064 matches

by MediumTex
Sun May 09, 2010 7:45 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash in or hold on?
Replies: 1
Views: 4261

Re: Cash in or hold on?

I would hang on to the bonds. 

Hanging on to things in life (other than worthless junk) is harder to do than it sounds.
by MediumTex
Sat May 08, 2010 2:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Greece: Going to go bust or not?
Replies: 16
Views: 13549

Re: Greece: Going to go bust or not?

EU to Set Up Fund to Prevent Spread of Greek Crisis http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4jFzDH.E7uc&pos=1 (Monday they're supposed to announce everything they're going to do, before the markets open) They ought to find "Baghdad Bob" and hire him to be the EU spokeperson. Remember i...
by MediumTex
Sat May 08, 2010 2:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A perspective on retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 14582

Re: A perspective on retirement

Here's something else: a great many of the people I talk to who tend to be of a certain political party affiliation believe the government invests our Social Security payroll taxes, producing profits which pay for the benefits. As Ross Perot would say: "Now that's just sad." I suppose, though, that...
by MediumTex
Fri May 07, 2010 7:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A perspective on retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 14582

Re: A perspective on retirement

Here is a telling quote from FDR: "Those [payroll taxes] were never a problem of economics. They are politics all the way through. We put those payroll taxes there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral, and political right to collect their pensions and their unemployment benefits. With thos...
by MediumTex
Fri May 07, 2010 12:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A perspective on retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 14582

Re: A perspective on retirement

pplooker, my point is simply that we are dealing with a gigantic number of variables which could play out in an almost infinite number of ways.  Even things we are certain will happen may happen years or decades later (or earlier) than we predict. I simply suggest that the PP covers you no matter wh...
by MediumTex
Fri May 07, 2010 9:34 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A perspective on retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 14582

Re: A perspective on retirement

Here are a few different perspectives: It's true, the world's always been screwed up. But here's the other side of my pessimism about how I might fare in the future: I am actually oddly optimistic that it's all going to pan out and here's how. First, remember I am terrible at international sociogeop...
by MediumTex
Thu May 06, 2010 3:13 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock volatility today???
Replies: 10
Views: 8324

Re: Stock volatility today???

Heads will roll for sure if it was. Scary how a trader error could cause that to happen though. Wish I was logged into my broker to buy in with some play money. A lot of people today made some easy money. Think of all the stops that were triggered. That's going to be a bunch of VERY unhappy people.
by MediumTex
Thu May 06, 2010 3:05 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock volatility today???
Replies: 10
Views: 8324

Re: Stock volatility today???

Word is a trader error.

Pretty wild.
by MediumTex
Thu May 06, 2010 1:20 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold versus Foreign Currencies
Replies: 5
Views: 6595

Re: Gold versus Foreign Currencies

What are your thoughts about a spread of foreign currencies for the cash component for non-US PP'ers compared to that of perhaps holding of all of CASH in USD Tex? To me having perhaps 2.5% of total funds in each of 10 different currencies seems more comfortable than having 25% in USD. If I were a ...
by MediumTex
Thu May 06, 2010 12:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A perspective on retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 14582

Re: A perspective on retirement

Just to vent: I'm 29.  I am substantially less likely to: A.) Become as wealthy as I could be otherwise B.) See a leisurely retirement in my lifetime Due to the fact that a large block of "Boomers" which has superior numbers, capital, and political influence is continually pissing selling my future...
by MediumTex
Thu May 06, 2010 12:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold versus Foreign Currencies
Replies: 5
Views: 6595

Re: Gold versus Foreign Currencies

Clive, Sorry, I thought we were talking about a currency basket as an alternative to gold, not as an alternative to the cash portion of the PP. If we are talking about a currency basket as an alternative to local currency in the cash piece of the PP I would say that it depends on where you live.  If...
by MediumTex
Thu May 06, 2010 10:19 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bonds are Putting on a Nice Permanent Portfolio Stress Test Demo
Replies: 6
Views: 7857

Re: Bonds are Putting on a Nice PP Stress Test Demo

It looks like treasurys are turning into a Cinderella story. 

At midnight it may all disappear, but I don't have a clue what time it is right now.

Where are all of these bond bears now?  It always surprises me how quickly a market narrative disappears when sentiment shifts.
by MediumTex
Thu May 06, 2010 10:06 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A perspective on retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 14582

Re: A perspective on retirement

This issue really goes to the heart of the fundamental matter of how society is going to be structured.  I think that right now we are at the stage of industrial capitalism where a lot of delusional notions have yet to be purged from the system, simply because this modern system of rapid economic ex...
by MediumTex
Thu May 06, 2010 8:34 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold versus Foreign Currencies
Replies: 5
Views: 6595

Re: Gold versus Foreign Currencies

All modern governments have bought into the idea that a steady level of low inflation is desirable to keep the velocity of money high and to keep the economy expanding (whether or not there is actual underlying aggregate demand to facilitate this expansion). Thus, over time all world currencies will...
by MediumTex
Wed May 05, 2010 4:59 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: options for cash
Replies: 35
Views: 25374

Re: options for cash

Do you think a 1 to 5 year treasuries (Gilts) ladder would be too excessive for PP's 'cash'? I ask because in the UK you can ISA (tax free account) gilts with 5 years or more to maturity at the time of purchase, so gross income is retained.  You can't however ISA Gilts with less than 5 years to mat...
by MediumTex
Wed May 05, 2010 2:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Mutual Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 18228

Re: PRPFX 1984...what happened?

Maybe just a lot of bad luck with individual stock picks? I don't know if this is why, but this is one reason why I don't think the mutual fund and the PP are the same thing at all and I'm loathe to suggest the mutual fund as a substitute.  The active stock picking really bothers me. Agreed.  Alway...
by MediumTex
Wed May 05, 2010 1:57 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: options for cash
Replies: 35
Views: 25374

Re: options for cash

MediumTex has also floated the idea of using I-Bonds for the cash which is another option if you can work within their limits. They would be as safe as t-bills. They are not however a substitute for the LT bonds in the portfolio, nor the gold. FYI. Series EE savings bonds are also fine for a portio...
by MediumTex
Tue May 04, 2010 11:55 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Free Brokerage For the Stock Portion?
Replies: 16
Views: 14123

Re: Free Brokerage For the Stock Portion?

If I was otherwise comfortable using Fidelity, I would take advantage of something like this for as long as it was offered. If, however, I wasn't comfortable with Fidelity as a general matter, a gimmicky thing like this wouldn't make me want to do business with them. It looks like Vanguard is doing ...
by MediumTex
Tue May 04, 2010 11:50 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bonds are Putting on a Nice Permanent Portfolio Stress Test Demo
Replies: 6
Views: 7857

Re: Bonds are Putting on a Nice PP Stress Test Demo

As for Taleb, the guy is probably a genius philosopher and a smarter human being than I, although I feel his whole proposal has a paradox embedded in it and I'm not the only one.  But how on earth to use his observations to practical benefit is beyond me. I believe that Taleb has basically come up ...
by MediumTex
Tue May 04, 2010 10:50 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bonds are Putting on a Nice Permanent Portfolio Stress Test Demo
Replies: 6
Views: 7857

Bonds are Putting on a Nice Permanent Portfolio Stress Test Demo

For those who are doing PP tire kicking, right now is a good time to study bond movements in relation to the rest of the PP and as an example of how following market predictions is a truly pointless activity. Note that this is the same bond market that people said was about to see dramatically highe...
by MediumTex
Tue May 04, 2010 8:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Promotional Offers from Brokerages/Banks
Replies: 4
Views: 3197

Re: Promotional Offers from Brokerages/Banks

Chase and Citi have recently done a $100 incentive for opening an account and having three direct deposits or some other combination of balances and debit card activity.  I took advantage of the Chase offer and did the direct deposit but didn't do the Citi offer. Marketing research work is also a si...
by MediumTex
Sun May 02, 2010 10:16 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Using SCV and EM
Replies: 16
Views: 16295

Re: Using SCV and EM

Are you ("you" meaning anyone) prepared to ride your allocation to the beach?  This is true for all portfolios, but especially when specific class sectors are involved.  I'm guessing that no matter which Equity division produces technically superior outcomes (and one can apportion that 25% in many ...
by MediumTex
Sun May 02, 2010 12:31 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Interest Payments
Replies: 12
Views: 16352

Re: TLT Interest Payments

is there a fund you recommend instead of VUSTX ? or is getting set up to buy TLT the only option? I think there may be a mutual fund that does zeroes (someone else may chime in), but I would say TLT, EDV or individual bonds are your choices for the LT bond part of the PP. There are probably plenty ...
by MediumTex
Sat May 01, 2010 7:26 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: ETF's as Gold? or ETF's as anything for that matter?
Replies: 17
Views: 14560

Re: ETF's as Gold? or ETF's as anything for that matter?

I think HB would say that bullion is better than an ETF and an ETF is better than nothing. People act like these ETFs are scams, but I don't see the market pricing in anything like that.  For example, the spread between GLD and IAU never budges more than a couple of pennies.  To me, that means that ...
by MediumTex
Sat May 01, 2010 3:11 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Using SCV and EM
Replies: 16
Views: 16295

Re: Using SCV and EM

Every investment approach has a set of economic, political, social, cultural, and ecological beliefs embedded in the assumptions on which the strategy is based (and these assumptions rarely show up in the prospectus). Sometimes, oftentimes, investors do not realize they are making bets.  For exampl...