Search found 164 matches
- Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:43 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 57804
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
Cortopassi, your experience is about the same as mine. I am determined to pass on more investing guidance to my children than what I received from my parents, which was zero. When I read Craig and Tex's PP book, it was like a light bulb went on in my head. It just makes so much sense, but nobody ev...
- Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:20 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold taxation thoughts
- Replies: 56
- Views: 39887
Re: Gold taxation thoughts
I'm pretty sure somebody here has a story of going to his/her gold dealer with some gold, and while that gold was sitting on the counter, sold and re-bought it, complete with a receipt for both transactions. The dealer took a small cut for facilitating. Gotcha. Hitting the streets with coins to do ...
- Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:46 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 296897
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
On a related note, my employer's 401(k) is moving from rip-off insurance company custody to Vanguard! Another one bites the dust. Nice! TLT rallied in vain today, slipping to negative 12mo total return lookback vs. SHV for the first time in a few months. It looks to remain choppy the next couple mo...
- Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:41 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold taxation thoughts
- Replies: 56
- Views: 39887
Re: Gold taxation thoughts
Trade is done, got the same price for physical gold today as when I sold my ETF on Friday - a few nail-biting moments there due to volatility. Only 1.5% premium, it was the annual clearance sale at Texas PM. Random year Can Gold Maple Leaves. I was on the I-10 in my car, placing this big order (we ...
- Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:13 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Kids: Then and Now
- Replies: 105
- Views: 56346
Re: Kids: Then and Now
I've been in martial arts my whole life (44 years out of my almost 57), and I've noticed that kids today can't mount an attack worth sh**. They are disconnected from their physical bodies. They have spent too much time in video games, imagining themselves in first person shooter roles, or maybe vir...
- Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:33 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3689
- Views: 1657664
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd, why would you expect the PP to outperform the 70/30? That's not the goal. As Harry Browne said, "Investing is about taking the returns that the market gives you." If there were a risk-free investment that could beat a 70/30 over time, believe me we'd all be there. The problem is, there isn't....
- Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:52 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3689
- Views: 1657664
Re: The GOLD scream room
I have 200K to add to the portfolio. I’m having a difficult time deciding between 70/30 and the PP. All I have witnessed in my investing life which started in 2008 is stocks out-performing all other assets with minimal/short-lived declines. While psychologically I like the PP, I have yet to witness...
- Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:57 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3689
- Views: 1657664
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd, you frequently tout with confidence statistics and historical perspectives showing the superior long run performance of stocks as justification for their proper use in a portfolio. Have you asked yourself why you have such trouble accepting statistics on gold that form the long term basis for ...
- Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:10 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3689
- Views: 1657664
Re: The GOLD scream room
Well can’t say I didn’t tell you so... First hint of inflation and gold disappears. Wonderful day for the PP. Look at her go, thank god I only have 25% in each asset class since they are all going down together...hmm Told who what now? Last I recall you were voicing unrealistic expectations for gol...
- Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:54 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 296897
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
Huh. In fact in Antonacci's absolute momentum paper high yield bonds with absolute momentum show the highest Sharpe ratio and best improvement in volatility, a fact which I glossed over previously. PRHYX also does very well with SPY in dual momentum. I see the data goes back to 1992. Are you using 1...
- Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:52 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 645623
Re: Stock scream room
Nice one. I’m still grinning about the It’s Happening! gif from last week.Kriegsspiel wrote:Nikkei down two plus?
To Aokigahara
those traders will trudge
- Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:43 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 645623
Re: Stock scream room
Matt Levine on Feb 6. The market fell further after he wrote this, but if you enjoy his column this was the perfect take following on his previous segments on market volatility. (All his columns last week were enjoyable, on various topics) https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-06/people-ar...
- Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:08 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 57804
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
I'll be nibbling at stocks on a regular (weekly) schedule, dualstow, I forget your plan. Is that nibble a long term increase plan or micro rebalancing or what? Choice #1. It’s not so much rebalancing as a long term plan to continue to accumulate stocks, pp or not, while I’m still relatively young. ...
- Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:02 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 57804
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
I'll be nibbling at stocks on a regular (weekly) schedule, but I think the dumbest thing I can do is make that equity-heavy fantasy a reality, even if stocks continue to drop. My thought for the day is stay the course. dualstow, I forget your plan. Is that nibble a long term increase plan or micro ...
- Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:53 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 57804
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
Let me be clear, I am not advocating buying BTC but merely pointing out on a day where the DOW fell 1000+ points BTC rose 10% while Gold only 0.24% That doesn't seem unusual to anyone on this forum? Think about that for a moment. I thought about it again and it still seems congruous with zero corre...
- Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:32 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 645623
Re: Stock scream room
Where are the tweets? Where is Trump? Aren't the democrats, illegals, someone somewhere responsible for this HUGE stock market drop? >:D Here's your tweet, corto. I can't tell who he's blaming after all. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/961253168968622086 In the “old days,” when good news...
- Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:57 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3689
- Views: 1657664
Re: The GOLD scream room
Thanks all, definitely frustrated but you are correct nothing outside the PP norm. Just once make me feel good about holding 25% in Gold. Show me why... Somehow gold has saved some other people’s asses two decades out of the last five. That’s not bad! Does it feel good even then? I wouldn’t know bu...
- Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:54 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3689
- Views: 1657664
Re: The GOLD scream room
I understand the frustration but I just don’t think anyone ever promised it would work that way on a daily basis. The whole premise is low correlation and in the case of gold, like stuper said, zero correlation, not negative. The benefits unfold slowwwwly, but in return you never have to touch it an...
- Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:37 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 645623
Re: Stock scream room
Great discounts to invest your tax cuts into
- Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:32 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Time to dump stocks and buy gold?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 5824
Re: Time to dump stocks and buy gold?
Interesting chart. I'm not familiar with that commodities index, but the ratio of gold alone to the S&P 500 is much different.
- Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:05 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Flat yield curve and switching to intermediate Treasuries
- Replies: 38
- Views: 22007
Re: Flat yield curve and switching to intermediate Treasuries
So if I tax-loss harvest my Treasuries, do I just buy a different CUSIP , even if the maturity date is only different by 1 month? Is that "different enough" for the IRS? I don't want to be disallowed due to wash sale rules. I was wondering the same thing and looked around the other day. The questio...
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:46 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 296897
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
I love the PP, but for the investor who does not prefer to set it and forget it until each January, I think GEM makes a great pair with gold for dealing with the ebbs and flows of the dollar. Are we about to see a several year run of ex-US stocks outperforming? Who knows. GEM doesn't care. This arti...
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:37 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 296897
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
It's pretty straightforward, just need the last 10 months and the last 20 trading days of returns for each asset class. It does trade a little bit more than GEM, but not a terrible amount, roughly 3x per year. On the other hand you are in 2 asset classes nearly all the time so there is less risk of...
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:01 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 296897
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
2009 is a textbook case for your second question. Looking at the graph you can see GEM got out after a few months of downturn while the market kept dropping a few more months. Other times there is no clear trend and GEM can whipsaw in and out and miss upturns. GEM seems to do just as well on its ow...
- Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:41 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 296897
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
Ocho - You could always measure the daily volatility for the prior month and if it is over some target threshold (maybe 20% annualized) scale your GEM holdings down based on that. That could possibly prevent losing too much during a flash 1987 event. IG Thanks for the suggestion, IG. When ocho ment...