Here are the effective durations of the ishares treasury funds: TLT: 16.82 TLH: 9.97 IEF: 7.41 IEI: 4.39 SHY: 1.81 SHV: 0.39 TLT/SHY combined: 9.32 Whipped up the following scenarios w/ etfreplay.com, the numbers are %'s, PP means traditional TLT/SHY mix, the others assume holding 50% of the bond fu...

I fail to see how buying an intermediate bond fund with duration equal to a cash/LTT barbell will have any long term negative effects on the PP. If anything putting 25% in cash and 25% in LTT is the "simple" choice (mentally) because it promotes the idea that there are 2 separate economic...

I fail to see how buying an intermediate bond fund with duration equal to a cash/LTT barbell will have any long term negative effects on the PP. If anything putting 25% in cash and 25% in LTT is the "simple" choice (mentally) because it promotes the idea that there are 2 separate economic ...

Hello, I am hoping that the experienced users here at the blog will help me make sure I understand the Permanent Portfolio (PP) and provide answers to a few questions.  I read Fail-Safe Investing and have been reading this blog, threads at the Bogleheads forum, and other websites such as madmoneyma...

What if you have very limited tax advantaged space? Does a barbell make more sense in that you'd put long duration bonds into tax advantaged and shorter duration in taxable? I'm in this boat and I'm considering doing something as long as possible like EDV in my tax advantaged space and balancing it ...

That's a good point regarding 100% SCV. I've read through the Bogleheads forum at length and I think they believe there have been too many periods where bonds outperform stocks to guarantee a 100% stock portfolio will always provide a higher returns. Or maybe it's just that over time a 60/40 portfol...

Interesting that the 60/40 split is so sacrosanct that they'd recommend leverage on the bonds rather than just changing the percentage to get the balance they want. For some reason many people don't seem to understand that not all bond portfolios are created equal.  Most 60/40 bond portfolios use c...

MediumTex wrote: PP up .59% today.

Anyone see the pattern here?

Take gold out of the equation the past few days and we all have a lot less gray hair? I kid, of course.

I was wondering if anyone has any thoughts on replicating the PP using futures? PROS: You could lever-up easily if you wanted to take on more risk.  As long as one is sensible I don't see leverage as a problem per se. You could sell calls against the position to boost returns, fairly deep to avoid ...

Wellesley: 2007: 5.19% 2008: (12.58%) 2009: 14.05% 2010: 10.36% 2011: 8.94% Avg. for 2007-2011 timeframe: 5.19% *** Permanent Portfolio: 2007: 13.3% 2008: (.7%) 2009: 10.5% 2010: 14.5% 2011: 10.5% Avg. for 2007-2011 timeframe: 9.62% *** Wellesley is a great fund, but it's not built for all economic...

Vanguard Wellesley is close to 60% bonds and 40% stocks and it lost about 10% in 2008. I just don't like exposure to losses of that size.  I can't deal with them.  I get too freaked out.  I can't think clearly and I start making bad decisions. Up to this point the PP has avoided those sized losses,...

Nothing wrong with splitting your assets amongst different portfolios, one for each of your investing personalities, and I don't mean that to be insulting. I'm probably going to do the same myself. Maybe half and half with a PP and a combo of Vanguard funds like Wellington and Wellesley. They invest...

In my experience, the portfolio grinds upward for a period of time and then the gains are quickly erased in a matter of days... As long as the net result is positive, does this matter? That's how the stock market tends to behave. Long periods of low volatility upward grinding followed by short peri...

Re: If you had $1 Million in the PP, can you live off of that? The assumption of a 3% to 5% real from the PP is also IMO on the high side, driven by favourable conditions for the PP (and many other assets) over the past 30 years (general downward trend in yields since the 1980's combined with near ...

Doodle, great work, I'm also very inspired by this. You mention the $400 is after mortgage - I assume this means mortgage and property taxes...what about maintenance, i.e. painting, roof, refrigerator blew up, etc.? Perhaps this is included in the $400/month average. Just over the past year I came t...

Does any of this fascinating dynamic disrupt the long run of the PP? I don't think so. Money will flow somewhere and we will capture it. Additionally, we are the ones he is spoiling :) The PP has given me a level of comfort (and performance, at least since May of this year) I've desperately needed....

MediumTex wrote: It all looks about right to me.

And also, it's just one day.

I agree - I did say it was no doubt a temporary blip for the PP itself.

But overall I'm just a little surprised that the report wasn't better received by market participants.

What days were those? Good point, last time I can remember was 2008. Market seemed to be reacting appropriately to the lovely news. The markets price these expectations in way before they come out. The stock market is up nearly 18% this year. So it's not like things are going poorly... That's what ...

I'm sure this has been discussed here ad nauseam but boy it's creepy to see such good job news get such a lukewarm reception. As far as the PP goes, I and I'm sure many others expected that long bonds and gold would get beat up by a good report. Sadly I expected stocks to go red as well. Seems like ...

Open ended QE...not sure there's anything better for a portfolio containing gold.

What if you are adding to your PP on a monthly or some semi-regular basis?

Should you add evenly 25/25/25/25 or put it into the lagging assets? I'm guessing the latter but better to ask.

Apple is a great company for VP purposes, but once you become the largest company in the world I wonder if the growth story isn't closer to the end than the beginning. I can certainly see the growth leveling off in the next couple years, but w/ no debt and $110 billion in cash on the books, I belie...

Personally I've been thinking about lightening up on the gold and LTT's and combining the PP w/ Larry Swedroe's minimalize fat tails approach. So it'd be: 12.5% - Total US Market - VTI 7.5% - Small Cap Value - IWN 7.5% - Emerging Mkt - EEM 12.5% - Long Term Govt Bond - TLT 17.5% - TIPS - TIP 30% - 2...

Hey guys, thanks for the responses. MediumTex - That's not a bad idea, at the very least I can observe what happens with the prices and premium between now and June while I continue to research the appropriate portfolio allocation for me. I do have a lump sum to invest and up to this point I've done...

Thinking out loud here, and was hoping to get some insight on this. I know you can't time the market, and I believe studies show you are best just investing everything you have at once. But what about selling puts to establish your PP?  For example, at end of day today I see the following: VTI @ 72....