Search found 730 matches
- Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:34 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
- Replies: 46
- Views: 49890
Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Still think the ladders are too complicated I've been thinking the opposite. Over here (UK) and our TIPS (index linked gilts) are pretty much at around 1% real yields across the yield curve https://www.yieldgimp.com/index-linked-gilt-yields Target 2.3% real from that, 33% initial allocation and tha...
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 9:15 pm
- Forum: Politics
- Topic: Which is worse?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 25047
Re: Which is worse?
That is a fair point. And the free market IS penalizing Disney. Their movies are bombing and park attendance is way down YOY. Same with Bud Light and Target. But it's not so simple. If I want to not buy stock in Disney or Target bc I don't agree with their "values", that means I can't buy...
- Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:29 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
- Replies: 45
- Views: 37308
Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...
- Thu Aug 10, 2023 10:21 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
- Replies: 2302
- Views: 1413209
Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
I welcome any other thoughts and constructive criticisms others may have on the book project. :) One more quick question: Is there a particular reason you chose global government bonds vs, say, a US intermediate-term bond ETF? I ask not out of US-centered parochialism but rather because a deep stud...
- Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:30 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
- Replies: 45
- Views: 37308
Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
base rate is 1.86% so it is an assumption that the inflation kicker will generate the rest ..but lower inflation expectations will see that kicker fall My understanding is that this is not the case (i.e. Mr. Roth is not depending on a high inflation kicker to generate returns that will allow him to...
- Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:45 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
- Replies: 45
- Views: 37308
Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
the flaw here is there is still a considerable amount of sequence risk at work . it takes at least a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement for 4% inflation adjusted to hold . tips have performed poorly despite the higher inflation because of rising rates.. they may have a very h...
- Sun Aug 06, 2023 4:36 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Minimum AUM
- Replies: 10
- Views: 3060
Re: Minimum AUM
Hey folks. Bit of a niche question for you guys. What is the minimum AUM a fund has to have before you'd feel confident investing in it? As I'm sure we're all aware, low AUM is the primary reason a fund would shut down. If we assume you are in a taxable account you'd have to eat a bunch of gains. W...
- Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:11 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Substitutes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 104755
Re: Gold Substitutes
HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
- Wed Jul 26, 2023 5:41 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold Substitutes
- Replies: 41
- Views: 104755
Re: Gold Substitutes
HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
- Mon Jul 24, 2023 10:58 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
- Replies: 2302
- Views: 1413209
Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Have you back tested your portfolio vs. the various Vanguard Target Retirement portfolios or other “commonly proposed” portfolios mentioned on this forum? It would be good to explain why yours is better. Just a suggestion. Yes, good point. Data availability is going to be a huge challenge. This is ...
- Mon May 22, 2023 5:21 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it
- Replies: 18
- Views: 12342
Re: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it
Government needs to be shrunk/obstructed/gridlocked by any means necessary. If thats not what "republicans" are doing here, then its bad. Why? If you look at places with larger governments vs places with high HDI it seems that there is a correlation. This doesn't mean that having bigger g...
- Sun May 21, 2023 3:46 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: When will indexing blow up?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 47215
Re: When will indexing blow up?
The cap weighted index reflect yesterdays best/worst. Buy the index and you weight more into yesterdays winners. Bogle suggested the ultimate being to buy initially in equal weights and hold that forever, let it find its own cap weighting. but that wasn't something that Vanguard could market. John ...
- Sun May 21, 2023 1:56 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it
- Replies: 18
- Views: 12342
Re: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it
yeah its that simple. Relatedly, r/ "news" has devolved into leftist rage-porn. https://old.reddit.com/r/news/top/?sort=top&t=week OK, so how is the threatened default not the GOP's fault? This whole debacle only seems to happen when we have Republican control of one or both houses an...
- Sun May 21, 2023 1:06 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
- Replies: 53
- Views: 47008
Re: Non-ESG ETFs
Interesting. I was under the impression that Vanguard and Blackrock were the most egregious ESG proponents. If that grading table is accurate, this is indeed good news. Profits for shareholders should be their main focus, nothing else. Except that by (for example) not encouraging, say, a fossil fue...
- Tue May 16, 2023 8:40 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
- Replies: 53
- Views: 47008
Re: Non-ESG ETFs
Interesting. I was under the impression that Vanguard and Blackrock were the most egregious ESG proponents. If that grading table is accurate, this is indeed good news. Profits for shareholders should be their main focus, nothing else. Except that by (for example) not encouraging, say, a fossil fue...
- Mon May 15, 2023 6:27 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: U.S. money supply suffers sharpest contraction since Great Depression
- Replies: 14
- Views: 5392
Re: U.S. money supply suffers sharpest contraction since Great Depression
The measure of trust for a random site is whether or not it's mentioned on Wikipedia? Not totally. More of a sign that if some negative information about it is on Wikipedia then one should probably use the web site with caution. So... Any site that doesn't have negative information about it on Wiki...
- Sun May 14, 2023 7:37 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times
- Replies: 4
- Views: 2099
Re: The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times
This blog is designed to record the investment journey of a UK based small investor. The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times https://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-all-weather-portfolio-for-uncertain.html "Could this is the ultimate set-and-forget portfolio?" "Further r...
- Thu May 11, 2023 1:25 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 29
- Views: 26233
Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Having said that, there is an interesting asset class that seems to act almost like "risk-be-gone powder" that can be sprinkled on pretty much any portfolio and watch the maxDD and volatility go down without anything near the commensurate decrease in returns....unfortunately I at the mome...
- Wed May 10, 2023 6:03 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 29
- Views: 26233
Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Holy tracking error, Batman! 🙂 Well yeah but unlike the Larry Portfolio or even (dare one say it?) the PP you at least get some return to go with your tracking error. 😏 True enough....but in all fairness, neither the PP nor the Larry Portfolio (in its various incarnations with or without CCFs and/o...
- Wed May 10, 2023 3:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
- Replies: 29
- Views: 26233
Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Holy tracking error, Batman! 🙂 Well yeah but unlike the Larry Portfolio or even (dare one say it?) the PP you at least get some return to go with your tracking error. 😏 True enough....but in all fairness, neither the PP nor the Larry Portfolio (in its various incarnations with or without CCFs and/o...
- Tue May 09, 2023 2:11 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
- Replies: 19
- Views: 5905
Re: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Interested in hearing opinions about SCV vs TSM investing for my children. Seems like over the long term SCV beats TSM by a long way. Wondering if there are any gotcha's with SCV . I'm planning on starting with one automated investment to keep things simple. Two come immediately to mind (although t...
- Sat May 06, 2023 8:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I'M OUT!
- Replies: 64
- Views: 77450
Re: I'M OUT!
I don’t use the PP any longer but I still listen to podcasts like the ones from Resolve Asset Management who specialize in Risk Parity portfolios. They have convinced me that if you are going to do such a portfolio then you need a lot more diversification than the PP gives you. You definitely need ...
- Sat May 06, 2023 12:22 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold
- Replies: 32
- Views: 8625
Re: Logistics of Large Quanties o' Physical Gold
The modern interpretation of the asset allocation that the Talmud advocated millennia ago has a alternative and perhaps more correct interpretation of one third in-hand, one third buried in the ground, one third in commerce. The context within which that was recorded was in regard to safety/securit...
- Tue May 02, 2023 4:25 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Permanent Broker
- Replies: 20
- Views: 8095
Re: Permanent Broker
Found one issue with the broker I chose, Fidelity charges $75 per VTSAX purchase. So...no automated purchases are going to happen. That could be a serious problem if I want to set VTSAX and forget it for the kids. I would be happy for an auto VTI purchase (would prefer that) but there is no option ...
- Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:22 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Non financial stock ETF
- Replies: 1
- Views: 1644
Re: Non financial stock ETF
ProShares S&P 500 ex-Financials ETF; the ticker symbol is SPXN.dopplerdave wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:14 pm Does anyone know of a broad market ETF that does NOT include financial companies (banks, insurance companies, etc.)?