Unfortunately, as time goes on, the back-tested data we used to form our conclusions start belonging to an outdated world that could have had very different economic forces at play. What are the different forces at play? I don't really see what has changed for the world economic system since the in...

I am no more confident of the pp than I am in any other diversified portfolio of similar equity weighting What's the saying..."It's not the investment, it's the investor." At some point you have to pick a reasonable strategy and just stick to it. So much is bound to change over a 30-40 ye...

People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...

I know Im a little late to the party here. But from a systematic perspective, wouldn't it make more sense to look at indicators that actually signal a bond reversal instead of just selling because rates are low and buying because they are high? What defines the subjective terms "low" and ...

this is why i said above we need to stop with the mental masturbation by reading what was or used to be , or how things may have back tested and concentrate on how things are reacting going forward . driving and looking in the rear view mirror may not be a great idea . What do you guys think the wo...

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:19 pm.

The emotional decision that keeps them in the PP is probably better than the emotional decisions they would make without it.

Exactly.

Well at least historically both bonds and stocks become correlated and go down as interest rates are rising...so 50% of your PP is not going to be doing well. Gold, who knows. It may help, it may not help. So that leaves cash. All of this is also somewhat influenced by how interest rates go up...so...

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:47 am A trend up in bond rates would inflict a lot of damage users never expected to see with the pp

Why?

Here's a link to a thread from this site from 10 years ago. Has anything really changed? https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1096&p=11740&hilit=crystal+ball#p11740 Well, kinda. We'd kill for the rates folks here were bitching about in 2011: https://www.macrotre...

Here's a link to a thread from this site from 10 years ago.

Has anything really changed?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1096&p=11740&hilit= ... all#p11740

What I know is that messing with the PP with proposed improvements rather than just trucking along with the strategy more often than not ends up with the person getting egg on their face. There just seems to be some intrinsic law in the universe that makes staying the course more profitable than th...

Does anyone think that it might be okay to just keep by long term treasuries, even with negative rates?

Maybe if rates continued to drop, you'd make up what you'd lose in interest with what you'd make in capital gains.

So you're saying you would do it then? You could keep them and buy more in the 15-20 year range with the goal of having 50% of your portfolio in 10-15 year treasury bonds in the next 5-10 years. 50% 10 year treasuries, 25% stock and 25% gold is another way to basically hold the PP. I think people h...

It was almost exactly two months ago that tomfoolery was “sounding the alarm” in a thread called ‘The (PP) May Be About to Break’. The main culprit: long-term treasuries. But someone, somewhere has been sounding the alarm since the beginning. If it does eventually “break”, the person with the right...

To add to what everyone else is saying... oil is by far the biggest weight You're not going to see any "inflation" in the official data until oil starts to go up. Very good point. These types of predications have a way of tricking everyone. Even though it seems like a no-brainer that we'd...

But they [the Fed] really only have any control over the short end of the curve. Didn’t the Fed start purchasing longer-term Treasuries (among other types of securities) in March? If they can purchase Treasuries of any duration, that means they can influence all parts of the yield curve, doesn’t it...

If the Fed's incentive to fight inflation no longer exists, why would they ever let Treasury rates rise significantly? There would be no benefit to the government. But they really only have any control over the short end of the curve. I agree that at some point there may be less demand, but I'm not...

Hard to have inflation with such a high unemployment rate, I think. Well that is what many people believe. But I am pretty sure they are wrong. We already have had a big inflation in food prices. But prices going up due to issues of supply and demand is different than prices going up due to inflati...

The price of food consumed at home, however, was up 0.5% from February. That was on top of a 0.5% increase the prior month. The report states: "The index for dairy and related products increased 3.7 percent over the last year. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 2.3 percent, with...

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:11 am Am I the only one that gets more tempted to *BUY* bonds the more I hear people on forums hating on them???

No.

For those of who have never prior seen this: Efficient Frontier William J. Bernstein Wild about Harry http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm I read that post 10 years ago prior to investing in the PP. It's a great post because it looks at the PP through the lens of modern portfolio th...

What's the old saw about cash being king? Read through this article to see the scale of the inflows they've been dealing with at Vanguard alone. Pretty breathtaking. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-latest-close-money-fund-204744970.html I note that that last time Vanguard closed their Treas...

It was only when I embarked on my forum archeology, I then discovered that Tex was Craig's equal. And, actually, upon joining this forum, it was Tex to whom I sent my first private message, thanking him for the book. At that time, I was unaware that he'd basically stopped participating. Vinny When ...

If you hold EE bonds for 20 years they are guaranteed to double.

So they have a guaranteed rate of 3.5% (if held that long).

Too bad you can only buy $10K/year.

If you hold EE bonds for 20 years they are guaranteed to double.

So they have a guaranteed rate of 3.5% (if held that long).