Search found 2815 matches

by Kbg
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Terrific Graphic
Replies: 35
Views: 18209

Re: Terrific Graphic

I agree. Great graphics very informative.  Really what the non-heat map graphs said is one should seriously consider PP with leverage.
by Kbg
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Are there any unbiased, large scale media outlets?
Replies: 12
Views: 5229

Re: Are there any unbiased, large scale media outlets?

BBC is still very good I think. I also agree with the Al Jazeera comment, they are quite good but I would slightly amend the earlier comment to they are good when they are reporting outside of the Middle East. I think PBS is quite good when they aren't reporting on social issues. For US news I have ...
by Kbg
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Futures DAYTRADING
Replies: 30
Views: 14167

Re: Futures dayrading

Interesting cost question on futures and paying for costs with a tick...I've been with IB for years and you can certainly cover your cost of trade if you bought the bid and sold the ask with the two futures you mentioned. But of course if you bought the ask and sold the bid (what normally occurs) yo...
by Kbg
Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:37 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 334197

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I'm going to move my PP with an XIV Twist post to here since it isn't technically a PP but rather a VP. I will pick up the 2x reporting as well as a comparison. VP 20% to each DGP = Gold SHY = Cash UBT = Long Bonds UWM = Stocks (Russell 2000) XIV = Short Volatility 2014 2xPP w/XIV Twist Performance ...
by Kbg
Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 334197

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I posted on this in another thread...but the short answer is while things are good they are very good so good that it can make up for REAL bad plus quite a bit more. Heck we don't even need a 2008 scenario to get crushed. 2011 tossed us a 78% loss in just a couple of months. 30%+ loses over a quarte...
by Kbg
Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with a XIV Twist
Replies: 15
Views: 11862

Re: PP with a XIV Twist

YTD performance 13.79% (backtest) - 4.83% 1st Q - 8.95% 2nd Q Actual $$$ port 2nd quarter 10.56%...as often happens the XIV portion this quarter is up just shy of 50% - Tickers DGP, SHY, UBT, UWM, XIV I will definitely rebalance this quarter. Full disclosure. The XIV component has also lost 49.66 an...
by Kbg
Sun Jun 08, 2014 8:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 334197

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Using 2x ETFs Rebalance bands from +5% to 15%: range 7.2% to 10.43%. Monthly to annual: range 8.6% to 10.9% Drawdowns are comparable but slightly improved by periodic rebalancing. Interestingly, adding XIV and allocating to 5 equal parts of 20% doubles CAGR with only a slight increase in DD for peri...
by Kbg
Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 334197

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Did some backtesting (2011 to now only)...at least for the past 3 years and change periodic rebalancing does a much better job of improving CAGR over band rebalancing. I was a bit surprised by this.
by Kbg
Sat Jun 07, 2014 8:59 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quantitative Tactical Global Rotation
Replies: 2
Views: 2219

Re: Quantitative Tactical Global Rotation

Is there a place to find the assets and rules?
by Kbg
Sat Jun 07, 2014 8:46 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 334197

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Yes but just for the time period since 3x ETFs have been around. I don't have my computer with me but if I recall you get about 4% more per year with a good jump in volatility and drawdown as compared to the 2x version. Most academic studies on leverage indicate much over 2x leverage is not benefici...
by Kbg
Sat May 31, 2014 8:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does a rebalance bonus exist?
Replies: 9
Views: 6988

Re: Does a rebalance bonus exist?

When contemplating the efficacy of rebalancing I believe it is critical to keep in mind the concept of path dependency. On any given event, we just do not know if it will be helpful. It depends on a future path we can't see when we do it. However, here is what we do know with certainty: - taxes will...
by Kbg
Sat May 31, 2014 8:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with a XIV Twist
Replies: 15
Views: 11862

Re: PP with a XIV Twist

I agree. Selling premium is awesome until it isn't; however,  I have zero sympathy for someone who gets wiped out. That's not a short option problem that's a risk control problem. Long term repeated selling of premium is profitable if done correctly. One just has to remember it's really nothing more...
by Kbg
Tue May 27, 2014 7:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with a XIV Twist
Replies: 15
Views: 11862

Re: PP with a XIV Twist

Please see a tax advisor. Just extrapolated. There is quite a bit out there with regard to selling volatility. A dose in moderation is generally beneficial. To be sure I think much homework should be done before remotely considering this.
by Kbg
Sun May 25, 2014 11:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with a XIV Twist
Replies: 15
Views: 11862

Re: PP with a XIV Twist

Great question on XIV vs SVXY. To me it comes down to tax treatment vs. Counterparty risk...and a slightly tighter spread. To each his/her own preferences and financial situation. Caveat Emptor for sure. If you are going to throw XIV/SVXY into the mix, clearly you...maybe that is too strong...genera...
by Kbg
Fri May 23, 2014 5:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with a XIV Twist
Replies: 15
Views: 11862

PP with a XIV Twist

Thanks to this great forum and the book that introduced me to PP. For the past couple of years I have used a variation of PP which includes adding XIV and putting all the assets at 20%. One has to rebalance more often however. For those who are PP fans and have an in-depth understanding of volatilit...