Search found 4456 matches
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 5:07 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
that is my point. there are good and bad times that hypothetically someone may need money that is in long term investments. my example is merely pointing out as conservative as the pp is if you need the money at a bad time it does not mean your investment is risky . my portfolio can be quite volatil...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:58 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
we can get hit with an astroid too. that is why i keep saying a portfolio needs to be flexible . it needs to hold assets better suited for the world around it . it needs to change and adapt as the world changes. been my style for almost 30 years through crashes , wars , and the financial collapse o...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
i don't but except for about 15% of my investments i stick here . i had no interest in overseas up until this week . i have not had much money overseas since the down turn .
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:50 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
Read that second paragraph again. Job loss (often coinciding with market crashes, BTW), buying a home, medical bills -- there are tons of good reasons to withdraw money that have nothing to do with timing or pucker factor. And don't forget survivorship bias in these long-term analyses. 40% of th...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:38 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
well if we never had a period longer than 15 years to date where at some point you couldn't sell diversified funds at a profit how is it anything other than investors acting badly if they lost money ? they either mismatched time frames , were overly invested for the pucker factor or just tried to t...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:20 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
Yes, but a 70 yr old would still have 30% in a 60/40 type vehicle which would probably be doing quite nicely in that scenario. may be , not all glide paths follow that . some may be more ,some may be less and some may have no equity's . as far as doing well ? , if they are retired and 30% equity ...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:16 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 46451
Re: The Risk Parity PP
i think a conservative mix of equity's and low interest rate sensitize bond funds are the way to go for a few years . then review when conditions change.Reub wrote: And if bonds are toxic and gold is tepid at best then how can the PP stay profitable? Equities cannot make up for it. No way!
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:13 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 46451
Re: The Risk Parity PP
Mathjak, you're a breath of fresh air around here. There are just too many Kool-Aid drinkers around. Questioning the basics is stimulating and healthy. Please keep it up. Btw, may I ask what your line of work is? Just curious. Thanks! motor control and factory automation specialist , at least for 1...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:10 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 46451
Re: The Risk Parity PP
forget comparing 10 years or even 15 years ,you may as well compare daily . Then why have you been posting reminders about TLT's recently poor daily performance? You seem to have different rules for stocks and everything else. because tlt is not a stock , it could see a very very long term up cycl...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:06 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 46451
Re: The Risk Parity PP
i only tell it like i see it . i don't accept myth folk lore or mis-information passed from one ill informed person to another . i question everything and most important i follow most of the top researchers today so i can learn . believing your own bull-sh%t can leave you quite far from what you cou...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:03 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
You can't keep saying "as long as people are happy" and then follow-up with "but you are dooooomed". Feels like the religion thread ;D i wouldn't say doomed , i would say can be doomed. the reality is that it does fall way short over the long haul over all climates we have had ...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 3:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
You can't keep saying "as long as people are happy" and then follow-up with "but you are dooooomed". Feels like the religion thread ;D i wouldn't say doomed , i would say can be doomed. the reality is that it does fall way short over the long haul over all climates we have had ...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:36 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Correlated Risk Parity PP
- Replies: 148
- Views: 46451
Re: The Risk Parity PP
forget comparing 10 years or even 15 years ,you may as well compare daily . what you want to know is over a typical accumulation period spanning decades how did i compare by the end of the game to other methods once all the cycles and events are done . my time frame would have left more than a mil...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:20 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: gold vs us dollar
- Replies: 13
- Views: 6780
Re: gold vs us dollar
even donuts may pan out better than gold has . whats the risk there ? you get cruller blind ? lol
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 11:23 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Was Harry Brown Wrong? Market Manipulation More Possible in 2015? Gold/Stocks?
- Replies: 49
- Views: 20417
Re: Was Harry Brown Wrong? Market Manipulation More Possible in 2015? Gold/Stocks?
i am in total agreement that the pp is perfect to switch to 5- 10 years before retirement . as i stated many time it is to untested for my taste in retirement . prior to being 5 to 10 years the pp is a poor growth vehicle over the long term leading up to that time all you need is 20-30 years to mak...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 11:16 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
they may end up severely under funded for that luxury and that is the danger. You can't keep saying "as long as people are happy" and then follow-up with "but you are dooooomed". Feels like the religion thread ;D i wouldn't say doomed , i would say can be doomed. the reality i...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:27 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
they may end up severely under funded for that luxury and that is the danger.
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:22 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Was Harry Brown Wrong? Market Manipulation More Possible in 2015? Gold/Stocks?
- Replies: 49
- Views: 20417
Re: Was Harry Brown Wrong? Market Manipulation More Possible in 2015? Gold/Stocks?
conventional growth models have blown the doors off the pp here . are you doubting that? Yes, obviously we are doubting that. Yes, every scholar who has done research into this issue is doubting that. "Growth models"! Hah! What the research shows is that a reliable "growth model,...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:18 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: POLL: How Old Are You?
- Replies: 16
- Views: 8060
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:09 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
all that matters is you are happy with the results. as for me , i will keep maturities very short and not gamble heavy on rates . i rather place my bets on equity's than interest rates falling at this stage..
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:02 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Was Harry Brown Wrong? Market Manipulation More Possible in 2015? Gold/Stocks?
- Replies: 49
- Views: 20417
Re: Was Harry Brown Wrong? Market Manipulation More Possible in 2015? Gold/Stocks?
all you need is 20-30 years to make everything smooth out using conventional investments This is just false. really ?. show us a 30 year time frame stocks were not a head in dollar terms where they were 30 years prior regardless of evenst here in the usa and wasn't a head of the pp with a stan...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:00 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
i track my permanent portfolio i bought two weeks ago . it is down 23k .
the new model i bought the same day before the big drop is only down 6800.00 on the same amount.
my VEU went from down 5% two days ago to down .78% this morning. insane come back.
the new model i bought the same day before the big drop is only down 6800.00 on the same amount.
my VEU went from down 5% two days ago to down .78% this morning. insane come back.
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 8:41 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: No where to hide
- Replies: 804
- Views: 303786
Re: No where to hide
i agree . after the equal of a 350 point drop yesterday ,i see TLT is getting pounded again with am equal of another 285 points as it falls 1.65% on top of the 2% yesterday.
that is a lot of pain to an asset regardless of what it is
that is a lot of pain to an asset regardless of what it is
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 8:28 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Might rising rates hit LTTs more softly than we fear?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 28348
Re: Might rising rates hit LTTs more softly than we fear?
while i agree real returns count when talking average returns over periods of time unless you specifically are looking at inflation adjusted all averages are in nominal terms. you never see the market broadcasted in real return , only nominal . so to get back to the point the nominal returns of the ...
- Fri Jul 10, 2015 8:17 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Was Harry Brown Wrong? Market Manipulation More Possible in 2015? Gold/Stocks?
- Replies: 49
- Views: 20417
Re: Was Harry Brown Wrong? Market Manipulation More Possible in 2015? Gold/Stocks?
i am in total agreement that the pp is perfect to switch to 5- 10 years before retirement . as i stated many time it is to untested for my taste in retirement . prior to being 5 to 10 years the pp is a poor growth vehicle over the long term leading up to that time all you need is 20-30 years to make...